Smith Douglas Homes Corp. (SDHC) AI Stock Analysis

NYSE: SDHCAI research summary: business, growth, valuation, analysts, bull and bear case.

SDHC AI stock analysis summary

AI Research

Smith Douglas Homes Corp. (SDHC) designs, constructs, and sells single-family homes primarily in the southeastern United States. Trailing twelve-month revenue reached $1.00B, but FY2025 net income dropped to $10.7M as net margin compressed to 1.1%. Free cash flow turned negative at -$36.9M in FY2025, and total debt stood at $68.7M as of June 30, 2026.

Market cap
$87.3M
Revenue (TTM)
$1.00B
P/E
14.4x
fwd 22.0x
1Y return
-34.8%
S&P 500 16.8%
Avg. target
$10.00
-3.8% vs last close

Bull case

  • Revenue expanded at a 17.0% CAGR over 4 years from $518.9M in FY2021 to $971.1M in FY2025.
  • Quarterly revenue grew 21.9% year-over-year for the period ending June 30, 2026.
  • The stock trades at a price-to-sales multiple of 0.1x, well below the US-listed Real Estate peer median of 3.7x.

Bear case

  • Net income dropped from $140.4M in FY2022 to $10.7M in FY2025, reducing net margin to 1.1%.
  • Free cash flow turned negative at -$36.9M in FY2025 after reaching positive $15.2M in FY2024.
  • Analysts project full-year EPS to fall 95.3% to $0.27 for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026.

What Smith Douglas Homes does

Smith Douglas Homes Corp., founded in 2008 and based in Woodstock, Georgia, operates primarily in the southeastern United States. The company focuses on the design, construction, and sale of single-family homes, while also providing closing, escrow, and title insurance services to facilitate home transactions. Smith Douglas Homes targets entry-level buyers purchasing their first homes as well as empty-nest buyers seeking to downsize. Through this approach, the company addresses diverse customer needs across life stages in its southeastern footprint, combining modern design trends with reliable residential construction practices.

Growth and profitability

Smith Douglas Homes grew revenue at a 4-year CAGR of 17.0% from $518.9M in FY2021 to $971.1M in FY2025. Annual revenue peaked at $975.5M in FY2024 before decreasing 0.4% in FY2025. Gross margin contracted from 29.5% in FY2022 to 21.8% in FY2025, while operating margin fell from 18.5% to 7.5%. Net income declined from $140.4M in FY2022 to $10.7M in FY2025, lowering net margin to 1.1%. Over the trailing twelve months ending June 30, 2026, revenue totaled $1.00B with an operating margin of 2.2%. In the latest quarter, revenue grew 21.9% year-over-year, while earnings fell 88.7%.

SDHC income statement →

Balance sheet and cash flow

As of June 30, 2026, Smith Douglas Homes held $14.2M in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $68.7M, resulting in net debt of $54.5M. Total assets stood at $592.1M and shareholders' equity was $79.5M, yielding a current ratio of 5.73 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.86. Operating cash flow fell to -$31.3M in FY2025, producing free cash flow of -$36.9M. Cash use in FY2025 included $5.5M in capital expenditures and $28.4M in dividends paid.

SDHC balance sheet →

Valuation and performance

At $10.40 per share, Smith Douglas Homes trades at a trailing P/E of 14.4x and a forward P/E of 22.0x, compared to median values of 21.6x and 23.5x for its US-listed Real Estate peers. Its price-to-sales ratio of 0.1x and EV/EBITDA of 12.8x also sit below the peer medians of 3.7x and 14.7x. The company has a market cap of $87.3M and an enterprise value of $600.6M. Over the past year, the stock fell 34.8%, underperforming the S&P 500 (SPY) gain of 16.8%.

SDHC key metrics →

What analysts expect

Smith Douglas Homes is covered by analysts with 5 Hold ratings and 1 Sell rating, with no Buy ratings. The mean price target is $10.00, indicating downside of 3.8% from the closing price of $10.40. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, consensus estimates forecast revenue of $1.05B and EPS of $0.27, representing an EPS drop of 95.3%. For next fiscal year, 3 analysts project revenue of $1.15B and EPS of $0.37. The company beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, and its next earnings date is November 4, 2026.

SDHC forecast and price target →

Key risks and what to watch

  • Short interest represents 24.1% of the float, indicating significant bearish positioning.
  • Operating margin deteriorated from 18.5% in FY2022 to 7.5% in FY2025 and 2.2% on a trailing twelve-month basis.
  • Cash and short-term investments of $14.2M leave the company with net debt of $54.5M as of June 30, 2026.

AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer

About this SDHC AI stock analysis

This page is an AI-written research summary of Smith Douglas Homes Corp. (SDHC). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

Related: SDHC income statement, SDHC balance sheet, SDHC key metrics, SDHC analyst forecast, SDHC chart. See the SDHC stock overview for the latest quote and news.

SDHC AI stock analysis FAQ

When does Smith Douglas Homes report its next earnings?

Smith Douglas Homes is scheduled to report its next earnings on November 4, 2026.

What are analysts' price targets for SDHC?

Analysts have a mean price target of $10.00, which is 3.8% below the last closing price of $10.40.

How has SDHC performed compared to the broader market?

SDHC returned -34.8% over the past year and -38.0% year-to-date, underperforming the S&P 500 (SPY) one-year return of 16.8%.

What are consensus revenue and earnings expectations for SDHC?

For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, analysts estimate revenue of $1.05B and EPS of $0.27. For the following fiscal year, 3 analysts project revenue of $1.15B and EPS of $0.37.

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