Paychex, Inc. (PAYX) AI Stock Analysis
PAYX AI stock analysis summary
AI ResearchPaychex, Inc. (PAYX) provides integrated human capital management and payroll solutions to small and medium-sized businesses. In FY2026, the company generated $6.51B in revenue and $1.76B in net income, while delivering a trailing twelve-month operating margin of 38.5%. It also offers an annual dividend forward of $4.76, reflecting a 4.26% dividend yield.
- Market cap
- $39.74B
- Revenue (TTM)
- $6.60B
- P/E
- 22.1x fwd 17.5x
- 1Y return
- -7.9% S&P 500 16.8%
- Avg. target
- $113.93 2.1% vs last close
Bull case
- Paychex grew free cash flow to $2.32B in FY2026 while sustaining high profitability with a trailing twelve-month operating margin of 38.5%.
- The company offers a 4.26% dividend yield backed by 39 consecutive years of dividend payments and an 11.2% 5-year annualized dividend growth rate.
- Paychex trades at a forward P/E of 17.5x, well below the median of its Nasdaq-100 Technology peers at 25.7x.
Bear case
- Paychex delivered a 1-year return of -7.9%, underperforming the S&P 500 return of 16.8%.
- The company carries net debt of $3.69B alongside a high dividend payout ratio of 82.6%.
- Quarterly revenue growth was 5.9% in the latest quarter, lagging the 31.9% median of its Nasdaq-100 Technology peers.
What Paychex does
Paychex, Inc. specializes in offering integrated human capital management solutions tailored for small to medium-sized businesses across the United States, Europe, and India. The company's comprehensive suite of services encompasses payroll processing, payroll tax administration, and employee payment services, alongside regulatory compliance services like new-hire reporting and garnishment processing. Additionally, Paychex provides cloud-based HR administration software featuring employee benefits management, time and attendance tracking, digital communication solutions, recruiting, and onboarding. It also supports clients with plan administration outsourcing, state unemployment insurance services, and business services including payroll funding, invoicing, and tax preparation.
Growth and profitability
Paychex increased its annual revenue from $4.61B in FY2022 to $5.01B in FY2023, $5.28B in FY2024, $5.57B in FY2025, and $6.51B in FY2026, representing a 5-year revenue CAGR of 9.9%. Over the same timeframe, gross margin expanded from 70.6% in FY2022 to 74.3% in FY2026, while net margin moved from 30.2% to 27.0%. Net income climbed from $1.39B in FY2022 to $1.76B in FY2026, with diluted EPS rising from $3.76 to $5.51. For the latest quarter ended August 31, 2026, Paychex reported year-over-year quarterly revenue growth of 5.9% and quarterly earnings growth of 13.9%, contributing to trailing twelve-month revenue of $6.60B.
Balance sheet and cash flow
As of August 31, 2026, Paychex held $934.2M in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $4.62B, resulting in net debt of $3.69B. Total assets stood at $15.66B and shareholders' equity was $3.71B, with a current ratio of 1.28 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.25. During FY2026, operating cash flow reached $2.56B and free cash flow was $2.32B. The company allocated its capital toward $234.9M in capital expenditures, $611.0M in share buybacks, and $1.59B in dividends paid.
Valuation and performance
At a market cap of $39.74B and enterprise value of $40.88B, Paychex trades at a trailing P/E of 22.1x and a forward P/E of 17.5x. These multiples sit below the median of its Nasdaq-100 Technology peers, which shows a trailing P/E of 43.3x and a forward P/E of 25.7x. Paychex has an EV-to-EBITDA of 13.2x compared to 32.8x for the peer group median. Over the past year, the stock fell 7.9% compared to a 16.8% return for the S&P 500, and over five years its 9.4% return trailed the index's 83.0% gain.
PAYX dividend
Paychex pays a quarterly dividend with an annual dividend forward of $4.76, representing a dividend yield of 4.26%. The payout ratio is 82.6%, and the company has paid dividends for 39 consecutive years. Its 5-year annualized dividend growth rate is 11.2%, and its last ex-dividend date was October 26, 2026.
What analysts expect
Wall Street analysts maintain 2 Strong Buy, 0 Buy, 15 Hold, 0 Sell, and 2 Strong Sell ratings on PAYX. The mean price target is $113.93, representing a 2.1% premium to the last close of $111.63. Paychex achieved 4 EPS beats over the last 4 quarters. For the current fiscal year ending May 31, 2027, consensus estimates project EPS of $5.96 on revenue of $6.86B, followed by next fiscal year estimates of $6.39 EPS and $7.24B revenue from 19 analysts.
Key risks and what to watch
- The dividend payout ratio stands at 82.6%, leaving limited cash cushion after $1.59B in annual dividend payments.
- Debt-to-equity is 1.25 with total debt of $4.62B compared to cash and short-term investments of $934.2M.
- Revenue growth of 5.9% in the quarter ended August 31, 2026, marks a slowdown from the 16.9% revenue growth recorded in FY2026.
AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer
About this PAYX AI stock analysis
This page is an AI-written research summary of Paychex, Inc. (PAYX). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.
Related: PAYX income statement, PAYX balance sheet, PAYX key metrics, PAYX analyst forecast, PAYX chart. See the PAYX stock overview for the latest quote and news.
PAYX AI stock analysis FAQ
What is the dividend yield and payout schedule for Paychex?
Paychex pays a quarterly dividend with an annualized forward payout of $4.76 per share, yielding 4.26%. The payout ratio is 82.6%, and the company has made consecutive dividend payments for 39 years.
What are analyst price targets for PAYX stock?
The mean analyst price target is $113.93, which represents a 2.1% upside over the October 16, 2026 closing price of $111.63. Analyst recommendations consist of 2 Strong Buy, 15 Hold, and 2 Strong Sell ratings.
How has Paychex performed financially in recent years?
Paychex expanded revenue from $4.61B in FY2022 to $6.51B in FY2026, delivering a 5-year revenue CAGR of 9.9%. Over that period, net income rose from $1.39B to $1.76B, and diluted EPS grew from $3.76 to $5.51.
How does Paychex's valuation compare to its sector peers?
Paychex trades at a trailing P/E of 22.1x and an EV-to-EBITDA of 13.2x, both below the median of its Nasdaq-100 Technology peers of 43.3x and 32.8x, respectively.