Blue Owl Capital Inc. (OWL) AI Stock Analysis

NYSE: OWLAI research summary: business, growth, valuation, analysts, bull and bear case.

OWL AI stock analysis summary

AI Research

Blue Owl Capital Inc. (OWL) is an alternative asset manager providing direct lending, GP capital solutions, and real estate financing. The firm generated $2.99B in trailing twelve-month revenue, but faces high leverage with total debt of $4.34B against $169.1M in cash. Its shares have declined 39.9% over the past year while supporting an annual forward dividend yield of 10.28%.

Market cap
$13.87B
Revenue (TTM)
$2.99B
P/E
73.8x
fwd 9.8x
1Y return
-39.9%
S&P 500 16.8%
Avg. target
$12.50
41.2% vs last close

Bull case

  • Free cash flow generation expanded to $1.20B in FY2025, supporting an annual forward dividend yield of 10.28%.
  • Consensus analyst targets project an upside of 41.2% toward a mean price target of $12.50.
  • The stock trades at a forward P/E of 9.8x, below the US-listed Financial Services peer median of 10.8x.

Bear case

  • Balance sheet liquidity is constrained by a low current ratio of 0.32 alongside net debt of $4.18B as of June 30, 2026.
  • The trailing P/E multiple is elevated at 73.8x, well above the peer median of 12.1x, following a 14.0% year-over-year quarterly earnings decline.
  • The dividend payout ratio stands at 104.6%, exceeding annual net income.

What Blue Owl Capital does

Blue Owl Capital Inc. operates as an asset manager specializing in financial solutions for middle-market companies, large alternative asset managers, and corporate real estate stakeholders. Headquartered in New York, New York, the firm utilizes a permanent capital base across three core platforms. Its direct lending segment provides private credit solutions, including diversified lending, technology financing, first lien loans, and opportunistic lending. Its GP capital solutions division offers GP minority equity investments, GP debt financing, and minority investments in professional sports ventures. Additionally, the company structures real estate transactions focused on sale-leaseback arrangements with triple net leases to provide corporate tenants and owners with liquidity.

Growth and profitability

Blue Owl delivered strong multi-year top-line growth, with revenue expanding from $823.9M in FY2021 to $2.87B in FY2025, representing a 5-year revenue CAGR of 63.0%. Net income shifted from -$376.2M in FY2021 to a peak of $109.6M in FY2024, before settling at $78.8M in FY2025 with a net margin of 2.7%. For the trailing twelve months, revenue reached $2.99B with an operating margin of 28.9% and diluted EPS of $0.12. In the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue increased 7.1% year-over-year, while quarterly earnings declined 14.0%.

OWL income statement →

Balance sheet and cash flow

As of June 30, 2026, Blue Owl held $169.1M in cash and short-term investments compared to $4.34B in total debt, resulting in net debt of $4.18B. Shareholders' equity stood at $2.00B, producing a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.18 and a current ratio of 0.32 against total assets of $12.33B. Operating cash flow reached $1.26B and free cash flow was $1.20B in FY2025. In that same fiscal year, the company deployed capital by spending $57.7M on capital expenditures, $53.7M on share buybacks, and $546.7M on dividends paid.

OWL balance sheet →

Valuation and performance

At a closing price of $8.85 and a market capitalization of $13.87B, Blue Owl trades at a trailing P/E of 73.8x, compared to the median of 12.1x for its US-listed Financial Services peers. Its forward P/E is 9.8x versus the peer median of 10.8x, and its enterprise value of $10.74B implies an EV/EBITDA of 11.4x against the peer median of 11.7x. The company's price-to-sales multiple is 4.6x compared to 3.2x for peers. Over the past year, the stock fell 39.9%, trailing the S&P 500 return of 16.8%.

OWL key metrics →

OWL dividend

Blue Owl pays a quarterly dividend with an annual forward dividend of $0.91, representing a dividend yield of 10.28%. The payout ratio stands at 104.6%, and the company has paid dividends for 6 consecutive years. The most recent ex-dividend date was August 13, 2026.

OWL dividend history →

What analysts expect

Wall Street analysts hold 8 Strong Buy, 3 Buy, and 7 Hold ratings, with zero Sell or Strong Sell recommendations. The mean price target is $12.50, representing an upside of 41.2% above the last close of $8.85. For the current fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, analysts estimate EPS of $0.88 on revenue of $2.85B. Blue Owl has beaten EPS estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters, and the next earnings date is October 29, 2026.

OWL forecast and price target →

Key risks and what to watch

  • High balance sheet leverage is reflected in total debt of $4.34B against cash and short-term investments of only $169.1M.
  • Short interest is significant, with short percent of float standing at 17.7%.
  • Dilution risk remains relevant as the company's share count increased 94.3% over the past 5 years.
  • Thin profitability is highlighted by a trailing twelve-month profit margin of 2.7%.

AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer

About this OWL AI stock analysis

This page is an AI-written research summary of Blue Owl Capital Inc. (OWL). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

Related: OWL income statement, OWL balance sheet, OWL key metrics, OWL analyst forecast, OWL chart. See the OWL stock overview for the latest quote and news.

OWL AI stock analysis FAQ

What dividend does Blue Owl Capital pay?

Blue Owl pays a quarterly dividend totaling an annual forward payout of $0.91 per share, which equates to a 10.28% dividend yield. The payout ratio is 104.6%.

What is Blue Owl's debt position?

As of June 30, 2026, Blue Owl held $4.34B in total debt and $169.1M in cash and short-term investments, resulting in net debt of $4.18B and a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.18.

When does Blue Owl Capital report earnings next?

Blue Owl's next earnings date is scheduled for October 29, 2026.

What is the consensus analyst target for OWL?

The mean analyst price target is $12.50, which sits 41.2% above its last close of $8.85.

More Financial Services AI stock analysis