Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS) AI Stock Analysis
NTRS AI stock analysis summary
AI ResearchNorthern Trust Corporation is a financial holding company providing wealth management, asset servicing, asset management, and banking solutions. For the trailing twelve months, the company generated $9.09B in revenue with an operating margin of 42.5%. In FY2025, free cash flow rebounded to $5.46B, supporting $1.27B in share buybacks.
- Market cap
- $30.29B
- Revenue (TTM)
- $9.09B
- P/E
- 14.2x fwd 13.8x
- 1Y return
- 35.7% S&P 500 16.8%
- Avg. target
- $181.71 9.8% vs last close
Bull case
- In the quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue increased 36.4% and quarterly earnings surged 98.6% year-over-year.
- Free cash flow rebounded sharply to $5.46B in FY2025 from -$1.23B in FY2024, enabling $1.27B in share buybacks.
- The company maintains a strong balance sheet with $35.99B in net cash and a current ratio of 4.99 as of June 30, 2026.
Bear case
- Annual revenue contracted by 9.9% in FY2025 to $14.30B, while net income fell from $2.03B to $1.74B.
- Consensus estimates project EPS to decline by 0.3% to $12.71 in the next fiscal year.
- The stock trades at a forward P/E of 13.8x, which represents a premium to the S&P 500 Financial Services peer median of 12.2x.
What Northern Trust does
Northern Trust Corporation provides wealth management, asset servicing, asset management, and banking solutions to corporations, institutions, families, and individuals globally. It operates through two main segments: Corporate & Institutional Services (C&IS) and Wealth Management. C&IS delivers custody, fund administration, investment management, securities lending, investment risk analytics, treasury management, brokerage, and transition management to institutional clients like retirement funds, endowments, and sovereign wealth funds. Wealth Management delivers trust administration, investment management, financial consulting, estate planning, and private banking to high-net-worth individuals, business owners, and retirees. It also provides asset management services across equity, fixed income, cash management, and alternative assets.
Growth and profitability
Northern Trust grew revenue from $6.49B in FY2021 to a peak of $15.88B in FY2024 before revenue declined 9.9% to $14.30B in FY2025. Over the 5-year period from FY2020 to FY2025, revenue achieved a CAGR of 17.8%. Net income reached $1.74B in FY2025 with an operating margin of 16.3% and a net margin of 12.1%, generating EPS of $8.74. For the trailing twelve months ended June 30, 2026, revenue stood at $9.09B, with a profit margin of 24.7% and EPS of $11.64. In the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue grew 36.4% year-over-year, while quarterly earnings increased 98.6%.
Balance sheet and cash flow
As of June 30, 2026, Northern Trust held $51.76B in cash and short-term investments against $15.76B in total debt, resulting in net cash of $35.99B. Total assets stood at $179.30B and shareholders' equity was $13.40B, giving a current ratio of 4.99 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.18. In FY2025, operating cash flow was $5.53B and free cash flow was $5.46B. Capital expenditures were $74.0M, while the company directed $1.27B to share buybacks and paid $633.4M in dividends.
Valuation and performance
At a last close of $165.54, Northern Trust trades at a trailing P/E of 14.2x and a forward P/E of 13.8x. Its trailing P/E matches the 14.2x median of its S&P 500 Financial Services peers, while its forward P/E is above the peer median of 12.2x. The price-to-sales ratio is 3.3x compared to the peer median of 3.1x, and its PEG ratio is 0.98. Over the past year, the stock returned 35.7%, outperforming the S&P 500 (SPY) return of 16.8%. Over 5 years, NTRS gained 58.8% versus 83.0% for SPY.
NTRS dividend
Northern Trust pays a quarterly dividend with an annualized forward payout of $3.28 per share, translating to a dividend yield of 1.98%. The payout ratio is 31.6%, and the company has paid dividends for 41 consecutive years. Its 5-year annualized dividend growth rate is 2.1%. The last ex-dividend date was September 4, 2026.
What analysts expect
Wall Street analysts carry 2 Strong Buy, 0 Buy, 12 Hold, 1 Sell, and 1 Strong Sell ratings on NTRS. The mean price target of $181.71 implies 9.8% upside from the last close of $165.54. For the current fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, consensus estimates project EPS of $12.75 on revenue of $9.27B. For the following fiscal year, 11 analysts project revenue of $9.50B and EPS of $12.71. Northern Trust has beat EPS estimates in each of the last 4 quarters, with the next earnings date set for October 21, 2026.
Key risks and what to watch
- A high beta of 1.25 indicates the stock experiences greater volatility than the broader equity market.
- Cash flow has shown historical volatility, swinging from -$1.23B in free cash flow in FY2024 to $5.46B in FY2025.
- Revenue expectations for the next fiscal year indicate modest top-line growth of 2.4% to $9.50B.
- Total debt of $15.76B results in a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.18 as of June 30, 2026.
AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer
About this NTRS AI stock analysis
This page is an AI-written research summary of Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.
Related: NTRS income statement, NTRS balance sheet, NTRS key metrics, NTRS analyst forecast, NTRS chart. See the NTRS stock overview for the latest quote and news.
NTRS AI stock analysis FAQ
What is Northern Trust's dividend yield and track record?
Northern Trust offers a dividend yield of 1.98% based on an annual forward dividend of $3.28 per share. The company has paid dividends for 41 consecutive years and maintains a payout ratio of 31.6%.
When is Northern Trust's next earnings report?
Northern Trust's next earnings date is scheduled for October 21, 2026. The company has beaten EPS expectations in each of its last 4 quarters.
How does Northern Trust's valuation compare to its peers?
Northern Trust trades at a trailing P/E of 14.2x, matching the S&P 500 Financial Services peer median of 14.2x. Its forward P/E of 13.8x is higher than the peer median of 12.2x, while its price-to-sales ratio is 3.3x versus the peer median of 3.1x.
What are analysts' price targets for NTRS stock?
Analysts have established a mean price target of $181.71 for NTRS, representing a 9.8% premium over its last closing price of $165.54. The ratings breakdown includes 2 Strong Buy, 12 Hold, 1 Sell, and 1 Strong Sell.