National HealthCare Corporation (NHC) AI Stock Analysis
NHC AI stock analysis summary
AI ResearchNational HealthCare Corporation is an operator of skilled nursing, assisted living, hospice, and behavioral health facilities. Over the trailing twelve months, the company generated $1.56B in revenue with diluted EPS of $8.99. Its balance sheet holds $234.5M in net cash as of June 30, 2026, alongside an EV to EBITDA ratio of 14.3x.
- Market cap
- $3.80B
- Revenue (TTM)
- $1.56B
- P/E
- 27.0x fwd 9.9x
- 1Y return
- 102.2% S&P 500 16.8%
- Avg. target
- $6.15 -97.5% vs last close
Bull case
- Revenue has expanded at a 5-year CAGR of 9.1%, reaching $1.52B in FY2025 and $1.56B over the trailing twelve months.
- The company maintains strong balance sheet liquidity with $234.5M in net cash, a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.03, and a current ratio of 22.06 as of June 30, 2026.
- Free cash flow rose to $148.6M in FY2025, supporting 23 consecutive years of dividend payments with a payout ratio of 33.0%.
Bear case
- The mean analyst price target of $6.15 stands 97.5% below the October 16, 2026 closing price of $242.82.
- Operating margins historically experienced sharp drops, falling from 5.0% in FY2021 to 3.0% in FY2022 when net income dropped to $22.4M.
- Short interest represents 6.4% of the float following a 1-year stock return of 102.2%.
What National HealthCare does
National HealthCare Corporation (NHC) operates and manages healthcare facilities across multiple care levels, including skilled nursing, assisted living, independent living, homecare, and hospice agencies, as well as a dedicated behavioral health hospital. Within its skilled nursing centers, the company provides licensed therapy, nutrition management, social services, and housekeeping, alongside physician-directed rehabilitation such as physical, speech, respiratory, and occupational therapies. NHC also maintains specialized medical units for memory care and sub-acute nursing for patients with Alzheimer's disease. Additionally, its assisted living centers provide personalized daily living assistance, while its behavioral health hospital serves adult and geriatric patients.
Growth and profitability
Annual revenue expanded from $1.01B in FY2021 to $1.07B in FY2022, $1.14B in FY2023, $1.30B in FY2024, and $1.52B in FY2025, reflecting a 5-year revenue CAGR of 9.1%. Gross margin expanded from 34.1% in FY2021 to 39.3% in FY2025, while operating margin rose from 5.0% to 8.5% over the same period. Net income reached $120.0M in FY2025, up from $22.4M in FY2022 and $101.9M in FY2024. Over the trailing twelve months, revenue reached $1.56B with an operating margin of 12.0% and EPS of $8.99. In the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue grew 8.8% year-over-year and quarterly earnings grew 67.1%.
Balance sheet and cash flow
As of June 30, 2026, National HealthCare Corporation held $265.9M in cash and short-term investments against $31.4M in total debt, yielding net cash of $234.5M. The company reported shareholders' equity of $1.12B, total assets of $1.54B, a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.03, and a current ratio of 22.06. Free cash flow reached $148.6M in FY2025 from operating cash flow of $185.1M. During FY2025, cash deployment included $36.4M in capital expenditures, $38.7M in dividends paid, and $14.7M in share buybacks.
Valuation and performance
NHC trades at a trailing P/E of 27.0x, above the 24.6x median of its US-listed Healthcare peers, but its forward P/E of 9.9x sits below the peer median of 17.3x. Its EV to EBITDA multiple is 14.3x compared to the peer median of 12.0x, while its price-to-sales ratio of 2.4x is lower than the peer median of 4.1x. Over the past year, NHC stock gained 102.2%, outperforming the S&P 500 (SPY) return of 16.8%. Over a 5-year horizon, NHC returned 283.9% versus 83.0% for the S&P 500.
NHC dividend
NHC pays a quarterly dividend with an annual forward payout of $2.68 per share, representing a dividend yield of 1.10% and a payout ratio of 33.0%. The company has paid dividends for 23 consecutive years, with a 5-year annualized dividend growth rate of 4.0%. Its last ex-dividend date was September 30, 2026.
What analysts expect
Wall Street coverage for National HealthCare Corporation indicates a mean price target of $6.15, which stands 97.5% below the last close of $242.82 recorded on October 16, 2026. The company is scheduled to announce its next quarterly earnings results on November 6, 2026. Over the trailing twelve months, NHC delivered diluted EPS of $8.99, supported by a 67.1% year-over-year quarterly earnings growth rate for the period ending June 30, 2026.
Key risks and what to watch
- NHC trades 28.9% above its 200-day moving average and near its 52-week high of $247.79, creating risk of mean reversion.
- Free cash flow has previously fluctuated, turning negative at -$21.5M in FY2022 before recovering to $148.6M in FY2025.
- The company's EV to EBITDA multiple of 14.3x exceeds the US-listed Healthcare peer median of 12.0x.
AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer
About this NHC AI stock analysis
This page is an AI-written research summary of National HealthCare Corporation (NHC). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.
Related: NHC income statement, NHC balance sheet, NHC key metrics, NHC chart. See the NHC stock overview for the latest quote and news.
NHC AI stock analysis FAQ
What does National HealthCare Corporation do?
National HealthCare Corporation operates skilled nursing facilities, assisted living centers, independent living facilities, homecare agencies, hospice agencies, and a behavioral health hospital.
Does NHC pay a dividend?
Yes, NHC pays a quarterly dividend with an annual forward amount of $2.68 per share, a yield of 1.10%, and a 23-year track record of consecutive dividend payments.
How strong is NHC's balance sheet?
As of June 30, 2026, NHC held $265.9M in cash and short-term investments against $31.4M in total debt, resulting in $234.5M in net cash and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.03.
When does NHC report its next earnings?
National HealthCare Corporation is scheduled to report earnings on November 6, 2026.