NGL Energy Partners LP (NGL) AI Stock Analysis
NGL AI stock analysis summary
AI ResearchNGL Energy Partners LP is a midstream energy infrastructure provider operating in water solutions, crude oil logistics, and liquids logistics. The partnership generated trailing twelve month revenue of $3.52B with a net profit margin of -3.8%, following a 5-year revenue CAGR of -9.6%. Despite significant leverage with $3.39B in net debt, NGL units have gained 146.8% over the past year.
- Market cap
- $1.88B
- Revenue (TTM)
- $3.52B
- P/E
- — fwd 46.1x
- 1Y return
- 146.8% S&P 500 16.8%
- Avg. target
- $5.00 -67.1% vs last close
Bull case
- Gross margin expanded continuously across five fiscal years, rising from 6.5% in FY2022 to 23.7% in FY2026.
- The quarter ended June 30, 2026, demonstrated sharp operating acceleration with revenue growing 59.1% and earnings growing 1128.6% year-over-year.
- Unit price momentum has been robust, delivering a 1-year return of 146.8% compared to the S&P 500 return of 16.8%.
Bear case
- The balance sheet carries significant leverage with total debt of $3.39B and cash of only $5.1M, yielding a debt-to-equity ratio of 103.75.
- Long-term revenue has declined at a 5-year CAGR of -9.6%, alongside an annual net loss of -$180.2M in FY2026.
- The consensus analyst price target of $5.00 implies a downside of 67.1% relative to the last closing price of $15.20.
What NGL Energy Partners does
Headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma, NGL Energy Partners LP delivers energy and water logistics solutions through three primary segments. The Water Solutions segment transports, treats, recycles, and disposes of water produced from oil and natural gas operations, in addition to recovering crude oil and disposing of solids. The Crude Oil Logistics segment purchases crude from producers and moves it to refineries and trading hubs utilizing pipelines, storage terminals, and rail facilities. The Liquids Logistics segment supplies natural gas liquids, refined petroleum products, and biodiesel across the United States and Canada through 24 terminals, third-party storage, leased railcars, and marine export infrastructure in Chesapeake, Virginia.
Growth and profitability
Annual revenue contracted from $7.95B in FY2022 to $5.68B in FY2023, $4.15B in FY2024, $3.47B in FY2025, and $3.16B in FY2026, representing a 5-year revenue CAGR of -9.6%. Despite top-line contraction, gross margin expanded from 6.5% in FY2022 to 23.7% in FY2026, while operating margin rose from 1.0% to 12.2%. Annual net income remained volatile, posting -$184.8M in FY2022, $51.4M in FY2023, -$143.8M in FY2024, $39.4M in FY2025, and -$180.2M in FY2026. For the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue increased 59.1% year-over-year and quarterly earnings grew 1128.6%, lifting trailing twelve month revenue to $3.52B.
Balance sheet and cash flow
As of June 30, 2026, NGL held $5.1M in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $3.39B, resulting in net debt of $3.39B and a debt-to-equity ratio of 103.75. Shareholders' equity was $32.7M relative to total assets of $4.18B, with a current ratio of 1.14. In FY2026, operating cash flow reached $366.0M and free cash flow was $144.7M. Capital expenditures stood at $221.3M, while the partnership deployed $470.2M into share buybacks and $113.5M into dividends paid.
Valuation and performance
With a market cap of $1.88B and enterprise value of $5.38B, NGL trades at a forward P/E of 46.1x, above the 12.7x median of its US-listed Energy peers. Its EV/EBITDA of 13.9x is higher than the peer median of 8.0x, while its price-to-sales ratio of 0.6x trades below the peer median of 1.8x. Over the past year, NGL gained 146.8%, significantly outpacing the S&P 500 return of 16.8%. Over a 5-year horizon, the units returned 450.7% versus 83.0% for the S&P 500.
What analysts expect
Wall Street analyst coverage consists of 1 Hold rating, with 0 Buy and 0 Sell ratings. The mean price target is $5.00, representing a potential decline of 67.1% from the last close of $15.20. For the fiscal year ending March 31, 2027, the consensus EPS estimate is $1.38 on projected revenue of $3.32B. For the following fiscal year, 1 analyst projects EPS of $1.79 on revenue of $3.04B. NGL has beaten EPS estimates in 1 of the last 4 quarters, with its next earnings report scheduled for November 5, 2026.
Key risks and what to watch
- High indebtedness of $3.39B against $32.7M in shareholders' equity exposes the business to credit and refinancing risks.
- Net profitability has been inconsistent, swinging from a profit of $39.4M in FY2025 to a loss of -$180.2M in FY2026.
- Analyst coverage is limited to 1 Hold rating, and the company has beaten consensus EPS targets only 1 time over the trailing 4 quarters.
- Top-line growth remains at risk, with consensus analyst projections forecasting an 8.3% revenue contraction to $3.04B in the fiscal year ending March 2028.
AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer
About this NGL AI stock analysis
This page is an AI-written research summary of NGL Energy Partners LP (NGL). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.
Related: NGL income statement, NGL balance sheet, NGL key metrics, NGL analyst forecast, NGL chart. See the NGL stock overview for the latest quote and news.
NGL AI stock analysis FAQ
What does NGL Energy Partners LP do?
NGL Energy Partners LP is a midstream logistics partnership operating Water Solutions, Crude Oil Logistics, and Liquids Logistics segments across the United States and Canada.
What is the consensus analyst target price for NGL?
The mean analyst price target is $5.00, which represents a 67.1% decline from the last closing price of $15.20, with 1 analyst recommending a Hold.
How much debt does NGL have on its balance sheet?
As of June 30, 2026, NGL held $3.39B in total debt and $5.1M in cash, resulting in net debt of $3.39B and a debt-to-equity ratio of 103.75.
When is NGL scheduled to report its next earnings?
NGL is scheduled to release its next financial results on November 5, 2026.
How has NGL's stock performed compared to the broader market?
NGL has returned 146.8% over the past year and 450.7% over five years, outperforming the S&P 500 returns of 16.8% and 83.0% over the same periods.