Mueller Water Products, Inc. (MWA) AI Stock Analysis
MWA AI stock analysis summary
AI ResearchMueller Water Products, Inc. (NYSE: MWA) manufactures products and services for water transmission, distribution, and measurement. In FY2025, the company delivered $1.43B in revenue with a net margin of 13.4% and free cash flow of $172.0M. Over the trailing twelve months, revenue reached $1.48B alongside an operating margin of 23.9% and EPS of $1.42.
- Market cap
- $3.40B
- Revenue (TTM)
- $1.48B
- P/E
- 15.3x fwd 13.8x
- 1Y return
- -12.0% S&P 500 16.8%
- Avg. target
- $27.00 24.0% vs last close
Bull case
- Mueller Water Products maintains a positive net cash position of $42.4M with a strong liquidity profile reflected in a current ratio of 4.64 as of June 30, 2026.
- Trailing operating margin reached 23.9%, well above the US-listed Industrials peer median of 11.7%.
- The stock trades at a forward P/E of 13.8x and EV/EBITDA of 9.5x, below the peer group medians of 17.2x and 13.9x.
Bear case
- Revenue growth for the next fiscal year is projected to slow to 2.6%, with EPS growth estimated at just 0.4%.
- Shares have underperformed the broader market, falling 12.0% over the past year compared to a 16.8% gain for the S&P 500.
- Quarterly revenue growth year-over-year was 4.1% in the latest quarter, trailing the US-listed Industrials peer median of 9.1%.
What Mueller Water Products does
Mueller Water Products, Inc., based in Atlanta, Georgia, manufactures and provides products and services for water transmission, distribution, and measurement. The company serves municipalities, residential and non-residential construction sectors, and industrial customers across the United States, Israel, and internationally. Mueller operates in two segments: Water Flow Solutions and Water Management Solutions. Water Flow Solutions produces iron gate valves, specialty valves, and service brass products used in water treatment, distribution systems, and industrial facilities. Water Management Solutions provides dry-barrel and wet-barrel fire hydrants, pipe repair clamps and couplings, metering systems, leak detection services, pipe condition assessments, and intelligent water management technologies.
Growth and profitability
Mueller Water Products grew revenue from $1.11B in FY2021 to $1.43B in FY2025, recording a 5-year revenue CAGR of 8.2% from FY2020 to FY2025. Over that span, gross margin widened from 32.3% to 36.1%, while operating margin increased from 11.9% to 18.2%. Net income expanded from $70.4M (EPS of $0.55) in FY2021 to $191.7M (EPS of $1.31) in FY2025. For the trailing twelve months ended June 30, 2026, revenue stood at $1.48B with an operating margin of 23.9% and net profit margin of 15.0%. In the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue grew 4.1% year-over-year, while quarterly earnings grew 30.3%.
Balance sheet and cash flow
As of June 30, 2026, Mueller Water Products held $495.3M in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $452.9M, resulting in net cash of $42.4M. The company reported shareholders' equity of $1.12B, a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.40, and a current ratio of 4.64. In FY2025, operating cash flow was $219.3M and free cash flow was $172.0M. Capital deployment in FY2025 included $47.3M in capital expenditures, $41.9M in dividends paid, and $15.0M directed to share buybacks. The 5-year share count change was -1.0%.
Valuation and performance
At a share price of $21.77, Mueller Water Products carries a market cap of $3.40B and an enterprise value of $3.35B. The stock trades at a trailing P/E of 15.3x and a forward P/E of 13.8x, compared to medians of 24.8x and 17.2x, respectively, for its US-listed Industrials peers. Its EV/EBITDA stands at 9.5x versus the peer median of 13.9x, while its price-to-sales of 2.3x compares to 1.5x for peers. Over the past year, MWA fell 12.0%, trailing the S&P 500 (SPY) return of 16.8%. Over five years, MWA returned 47.2% against 83.0% for the S&P 500.
MWA dividend
Mueller Water Products pays a quarterly dividend with an annualized forward payout of $0.28 per share, representing a dividend yield of 1.29%. The dividend payout ratio is 17.8%, and the company has paid dividends for 21 consecutive years. Its 5-year annualized dividend growth rate is 4.8%. The last ex-dividend date was August 10, 2026.
What analysts expect
Wall Street coverage includes 2 Strong Buy, 0 Buy, 2 Hold, and 2 Sell ratings. The mean price target is $27.00, representing a 24.0% premium over the last close of $21.77. For the fiscal year ending September 30, 2026, consensus estimates project revenue of $1.47B and EPS of $1.56, indicating 19.5% EPS growth. For the following fiscal year, 6 analysts project revenue of $1.51B (2.6% growth) and EPS of $1.57 (0.4% growth). Mueller beat EPS estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters. The next earnings date is November 5, 2026.
Key risks and what to watch
- Consensus estimates project EPS growth to moderate significantly from 19.5% in FY2026 to 0.4% in FY2027.
- Short interest represents 5.6% of float, indicating notable market skepticism.
- The stock trades 15.9% below its 200-day moving average and remains near its 52-week low of $20.90.
AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer
About this MWA AI stock analysis
This page is an AI-written research summary of Mueller Water Products, Inc. (MWA). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.
Related: MWA income statement, MWA balance sheet, MWA key metrics, MWA analyst forecast, MWA chart. See the MWA stock overview for the latest quote and news.
MWA AI stock analysis FAQ
What is Mueller Water Products' dividend yield and payout history?
Mueller Water Products pays a forward annual dividend of $0.28 per share, which equals a 1.29% yield. The company has paid dividends for 21 consecutive years and maintains a payout ratio of 17.8%.
How does Mueller Water Products compare to industry peers on valuation?
MWA trades at a trailing P/E of 15.3x and forward P/E of 13.8x, both below the US-listed Industrials peer medians of 24.8x and 17.2x. Its EV/EBITDA of 9.5x is also lower than the peer median of 13.9x, though its price-to-sales of 2.3x is higher than the peer median of 1.5x.
What is the financial position of Mueller Water Products' balance sheet?
As of June 30, 2026, the company held $495.3M in cash and short-term investments against $452.9M in total debt, giving it net cash of $42.4M. It also had a current ratio of 4.64 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.40.
What are analysts forecasting for Mueller Water Products' earnings and revenue?
For the fiscal year ending September 30, 2026, consensus estimates anticipate revenue of $1.47B and EPS of $1.56, representing 19.5% EPS growth. For the following fiscal year, analysts expect revenue of $1.51B and EPS of $1.57.