Matador Resources Company (MTDR) AI Stock Analysis
MTDR AI stock analysis summary
AI ResearchMatador Resources Company is an independent oil and natural gas exploration and production firm focused primarily on the Delaware Basin. Over the trailing twelve months, the company generated $3.84B in revenue with an operating margin of 49.2%. In the quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly earnings grew 160.6% year-over-year while net debt stood at $3.27B.
- Market cap
- $7.12B
- Revenue (TTM)
- $3.84B
- P/E
- 9.9x fwd 5.5x
- 1Y return
- 38.2% S&P 500 16.8%
- Avg. target
- $69.71 21.2% vs last close
Bull case
- Quarterly net income expanded 160.6% year-over-year in the quarter ended June 30, 2026, supported by 26.8% quarterly revenue growth.
- Matador trades at a forward P/E of 5.5x and an EV/EBITDA of 4.5x, well below the US-listed Energy peer medians of 12.7x and 8.0x.
- Analysts estimate FY2026 EPS will grow 39.2% to $8.02 on projected full-year revenue of $4.24B.
Bear case
- Matador maintains a low cash balance of $26.3M against total debt of $3.30B, leading to a current ratio of 0.65.
- Annual net income dropped from $1.21B in FY2022 to $759.2M in FY2025 as operating margins contracted from 57.5% to 32.5%.
- Free cash flow generation fell from $894.8M in FY2022 to $241.6M in FY2025 under high capital expenditures of $2.18B.
What Matador Resources does
Matador Resources Company is a Dallas, Texas-based independent energy company founded in 2003. It operates through two primary segments: Exploration and Production, and Midstream. The company focuses on the exploration, development, production, and acquisition of oil and natural gas resources. Its primary exploration and production assets include acreage in the Wolfcamp and Bone Spring plays in the Delaware Basin, the Eagle Ford shale in South Texas, and the Haynesville shale and Cotton Valley plays in Northwest Louisiana. Midstream operations provide natural gas processing, oil transportation, gathering services, and produced water gathering and disposal services.
Growth and profitability
Between FY2020 and FY2025, Matador delivered a 5-year revenue compound annual growth rate of 33.7%. Annual revenue expanded from $1.66B in FY2021 to $3.06B in FY2022, before falling 7.9% to $2.82B in FY2023. Top-line expansion resumed in FY2024 at $3.48B and reached $3.66B in FY2025, though operating margins declined from 57.5% in FY2022 to 32.5% in FY2025. Annual net income was $759.2M in FY2025 compared to $1.21B in FY2022. Across the trailing twelve months, revenue reached $3.84B with a 49.2% operating margin. In the quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue increased 26.8% and quarterly earnings rose 160.6% year-over-year.
Balance sheet and cash flow
As of June 30, 2026, Matador held $26.3M in cash and short-term investments alongside total debt of $3.30B, resulting in net debt of $3.27B. The company reported a current ratio of 0.65 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.56 against shareholders' equity of $5.93B. In FY2025, operating cash flow reached $2.43B and free cash flow totaled $241.6M. Capital allocation during FY2025 was dominated by $2.18B in capital expenditures, while dividends paid totaled $163.1M and share buybacks accounted for $55.8M.
Valuation and performance
Matador trades at a trailing P/E of 9.9x and a forward P/E of 5.5x, both below the median of its US-listed Energy peers of 15.0x and 12.7x, respectively. Its enterprise value to EBITDA ratio stands at 4.5x, compared to the peer median of 8.0x, while its price-to-sales multiple of 1.9x is slightly above the peer median of 1.8x. Over the past year, Matador generated a return of 38.2%, exceeding the S&P 500 return of 16.8%. Over five years, its 50.4% return trails the S&P 500 return of 83.0%.
MTDR dividend
Matador pays a quarterly dividend with a forward annual payout of $1.50 per share, representing a 2.61% dividend yield. The company has maintained consecutive dividend payments for 6 years. Backed by a payout ratio of 23.5%, total cash dividends paid reached $163.1M in FY2025. The company's last ex-dividend date was August 10, 2026.
What analysts expect
Wall Street coverage reflects 15 Strong Buy, 3 Buy, and 3 Hold recommendations. The mean price target of $69.71 indicates 21.2% upside relative to the October 16, 2026 closing price of $57.52. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, consensus expectations project revenue of $4.24B and EPS of $8.02, representing 39.2% EPS growth. Matador exceeded EPS consensus estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters. The next earnings date is November 3, 2026.
Key risks and what to watch
- A current ratio of 0.65 and net debt of $3.27B leave limited short-term liquidity headroom if operating cash flows decline.
- Substantial capital expenditures of $2.18B in FY2025 consume the vast majority of the company's $2.43B in operating cash flow.
- Short interest represents 12.5% of the public float, signaling elevated negative sentiment from market participants.
- Operating margins fell from 57.5% in FY2022 to 32.5% in FY2025, illustrating sensitivity to shifting energy market pricing.
AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer
About this MTDR AI stock analysis
This page is an AI-written research summary of Matador Resources Company (MTDR). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.
Related: MTDR income statement, MTDR balance sheet, MTDR key metrics, MTDR analyst forecast, MTDR chart. See the MTDR stock overview for the latest quote and news.
MTDR AI stock analysis FAQ
What does Matador Resources Company do?
Matador Resources Company is an independent energy company focused on oil and natural gas exploration, development, and production, primarily in the Delaware Basin, Eagle Ford shale, and Haynesville and Cotton Valley plays. The company also operates midstream infrastructure providing gathering, processing, transportation, and water disposal services.
What is Matador's dividend yield and distribution history?
Matador pays a quarterly dividend with a forward annualized payout of $1.50 per share, delivering a 2.61% dividend yield. The company has paid dividends for 6 consecutive years with a payout ratio of 23.5%.
How much debt does Matador Resources carry?
As of June 30, 2026, Matador held $3.30B in total debt and $26.3M in cash and short-term investments, resulting in net debt of $3.27B. Its debt-to-equity ratio was 0.56.
What are analysts forecasting for Matador's financial performance?
For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, analysts estimate EPS of $8.02 on revenue of $4.24B. For the subsequent fiscal year, 16 analysts project EPS of $9.88 on revenue of $4.92B.