International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) AI Stock Analysis

NYSE: IBMAI research summary: business, growth, valuation, analysts, bull and bear case.

IBM AI stock analysis summary

AI Research

International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) provides enterprise technology solutions across software, consulting, and infrastructure. In FY2025, revenue grew 7.6% to $67.54B while net income reached $10.59B. The company carries $57.14B in net debt and offers an annualized forward dividend yield of 2.91%.

Market cap
$218.71B
Revenue (TTM)
$69.09B
P/E
20.6x
fwd 17.4x
1Y return
-13.7%
S&P 500 16.8%
Avg. target
$242.65
4.5% vs last close

Bull case

  • IBM generated $12.10B in free cash flow and $10.59B in net income during FY2025.
  • The stock trades at a forward P/E of 17.4x, below the median of its S&P 500 Technology peers at 20.9x.
  • The company maintains a 42-year track record of consecutive dividend payments with a 2.91% dividend yield.

Bear case

  • IBM carries a total debt load of $65.27B, resulting in net debt of $57.14B and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.89.
  • Long-term revenue expansion has been negative, posting a 5-year revenue CAGR of -1.7% from FY2020 to FY2025.
  • The stock declined 13.7% over the past year, trailing the S&P 500 index return of 16.8% over the same timeframe.

What IBM does

International Business Machines Corporation operates across four business segments: Software, Consulting, Infrastructure, and Financing. The Software segment provides hybrid cloud platforms, including Red Hat enterprise open-source offerings, alongside business automation, data analytics, artificial intelligence solutions, and cybersecurity software. The Consulting segment delivers business transformation services, strategy development, systems integration, and cloud application services. The Infrastructure segment offers on-premises and cloud servers, storage solutions, and remanufacturing of used equipment. IBM serves clients globally, supporting mission-critical transaction processing for banking, retail, and airline industries.

Growth and profitability

IBM reported annual revenue growth of 7.6% in FY2025, reaching $67.54B, up from $62.75B in FY2024 and $57.35B in FY2021. Gross margin expanded from 54.9% in FY2021 to 58.2% in FY2025, while operating margin rose to 18.5%. Net income increased to $10.59B in FY2025, translating to an EPS of $11.57 and a net margin of 15.7%. Over the 5-year period from FY2020 to FY2025, revenue CAGR was -1.7%. For the trailing twelve months, revenue reached $69.09B with an operating margin of 16.6%. In the latest quarter ending June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue grew 1.1% year-over-year, while quarterly earnings declined 1.8%.

IBM income statement →

Balance sheet and cash flow

As of June 30, 2026, IBM held $8.13B in cash and short-term investments against $65.27B in total debt, resulting in net debt of $57.14B. The company recorded a current ratio of 0.79 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.89 with shareholders' equity of $34.45B. In FY2025, operating cash flow stood at $13.19B and free cash flow reached $12.10B. Capital allocation in FY2025 included $1.09B for capital expenditures, $1.02B for share buybacks, and $6.25B paid in dividends.

IBM balance sheet →

Valuation and performance

IBM trades at a trailing P/E of 20.6x and a forward P/E of 17.4x, which are both below the median of its S&P 500 Technology peers at 31.5x and 20.9x, respectively. Its price-to-sales ratio of 3.2x and EV-to-EBITDA of 15.7x also sit lower than the peer medians of 6.3x and 19.9x. The stock has dropped 13.7% over the past year and fell 20.0% year-to-date, trailing the S&P 500 benchmark return of 16.8% over the past year. Over a five-year period, IBM delivered a return of 103.5% compared to 83.0% for the S&P 500.

IBM key metrics →

IBM dividend

IBM pays an annual forward dividend of $6.76 per share, yielding 2.91% with a payout ratio of 56.1%. The company distributes dividends quarterly and has paid dividends for 42 consecutive years. Over the past five years, IBM's annualized dividend growth rate was 1.5%. Its last ex-dividend date occurred on August 10, 2026.

IBM dividend history →

What analysts expect

Wall Street coverage consists of 9 Strong Buy, 3 Buy, 11 Hold, 1 Sell, and 1 Strong Sell recommendations. The mean price target is $242.65, representing a 4.5% upside over the last close of $232.14. For the current fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, analysts estimate revenue of $70.38B and EPS of $12.31, representing 6.2% earnings growth. IBM has beaten EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters. The next earnings date is October 21, 2026.

IBM forecast and price target →

Key risks and what to watch

  • The company's current ratio of 0.79 indicates that short-term obligations exceed short-term liquid assets.
  • Quarterly revenue grew by only 1.1% year-over-year in the quarter ended June 30, 2026, while quarterly earnings declined 1.8%.
  • Dilution has occurred over the medium term, with share count rising 5.3% over five years despite $1.02B of buybacks in FY2025.
  • The shares trade 6.9% below their 200-day average and remain well under the 52-week high of $332.46.

AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer

About this IBM AI stock analysis

This page is an AI-written research summary of International Business Machines Corporation (IBM). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

Related: IBM income statement, IBM balance sheet, IBM key metrics, IBM analyst forecast, IBM chart. See the IBM stock overview for the latest quote and news.

IBM AI stock analysis FAQ

What is IBM's dividend yield and payment frequency?

IBM offers an annualized forward dividend yield of 2.91% based on an annual payout of $6.76 per share. The dividend is distributed quarterly and has been paid for 42 consecutive years.

How much debt does IBM hold?

As of June 30, 2026, IBM had $65.27B in total debt and $8.13B in cash and short-term investments, leaving net debt at $57.14B. Its debt-to-equity ratio is 1.89.

What is the consensus analyst target for IBM stock?

The mean analyst price target is $242.65, which is 4.5% above the last close of $232.14. Analysts expect EPS of $12.31 on revenue of $70.38B for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026.

How does IBM's valuation compare to the broader technology sector?

IBM trades at a forward P/E of 17.4x and an EV-to-EBITDA of 15.7x. Both multiples trade at a discount to the median of its S&P 500 Technology peers, which stand at 20.9x and 19.9x, respectively.

More Technology AI stock analysis