Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO) AI Stock Analysis

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. operates a chain of independently operated grocery stores across the United States. Founded in 1946 and based in Emeryville, California, the company encompassed 430 stores as of November 8, 2022, situated in states such as California, Washington, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Idaho, Nevada, New Jersey, and Maryland. Stores provide products across dairy, deli, produce, floral arrangements, fresh meat and seafood, groceries, general merchandise, health and beauty items, frozen foods, and beer and wine. Independently owned operators manage day-to-day store operations while relying on centralized purchasing power to deliver discounted prices.

Grocery Outlet increased annual revenue from $3.08B in FY2021 to $4.69B in FY2025, generating a 5-year revenue CAGR of 8.4%. Gross margin remained consistent at 30.3% in FY2025 compared to 30.8% in FY2021. However, operating margin fell from 2.9% in FY2021 to -4.7% in FY2025, swinging net income from $62.3M to -$224.9M. For the trailing twelve months ended June 30, 2026, revenue stood at $4.74B with an operating margin of 1.8% and net profit margin of -8.0%. In the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue grew 1.1% year-over-year while quarterly earnings rose 13.6%.

As of June 30, 2026, Grocery Outlet held $74.2M in cash and short-term investments alongside total debt of $1.85B, resulting in net debt of $1.78B. Shareholders' equity was $816.6M against total assets of $2.99B, reflecting a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.27 and a current ratio of 1.29. Operating cash flow stood at $222.1M in FY2025, with free cash flow of $23.8M after capital expenditures of $198.3M.

At a last close of $12.87 on October 16, 2026, Grocery Outlet had a market cap of $1.28B and an enterprise value of $2.88B. The stock trades at a forward P/E of 14.9x, above the median of its US-listed Consumer Defensive peers of 14.3x. Its EV/EBITDA of 20.1x also trades above the peer group median of 11.7x, while its price-to-sales of 0.3x is below the peer median of 0.7x. Over the past year, the stock fell 14.3%, trailing the S&P 500 (SPY) return of 16.8%.

Wall Street coverage includes 1 Strong Buy, 12 Hold, and 1 Strong Sell ratings. The mean price target is $10.92, representing a 15.1% discount to the October 16, 2026 closing price of $12.87. For FY2026 ending December 31, 2026, consensus estimates project EPS of $0.55 on revenue of $4.70B. For FY2027, 14 analysts project EPS of $0.67 on revenue of $4.92B. The company beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with next earnings scheduled for November 3, 2026.

This page is an AI-written research summary of Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

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