Ellington Residential Mortgage REIT (EARN) AI Stock Analysis

Ellington Residential Mortgage REIT is a real estate investment trust that focuses on the acquisition, investment, and management of residential mortgage and real estate-related assets. Founded in 2012 and headquartered in Old Greenwich, Connecticut, the company specializes in residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS). Its portfolio encompasses agency pools and agency collateralized mortgage obligations (CMOs), along with both investment-grade and non-investment-grade non-agency RMBS. By electing to be taxed as a REIT, it is exempt from corporate income tax on distributed net income. The firm balances agency and non-agency assets through disciplined asset selection.

Between FY2020 and FY2025, revenue grew at a 5-year CAGR of 10.4%. Revenue rose from -$557,000 in FY2021 to $20.2M in FY2022 and $55.4M in FY2023, before declining 8.4% to $50.7M in FY2024 and 16.0% to $42.6M in FY2025. Net income fluctuated significantly, moving from -$6.3M in FY2021 to -$30.2M in FY2022, reaching $4.6M in FY2023 and $6.6M in FY2024, and falling to -$14.5M in FY2025 with a net margin of -33.9%. For the trailing twelve months ending June 30, 2026, revenue stood at $41.6M with a profit margin of -81.2%. In the latest quarter, quarterly revenue fell 19.3% year-over-year while quarterly earnings grew 69.8%.

As of June 30, 2026, Ellington Residential Mortgage REIT held $23.5M in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $205.9M, resulting in net debt of $182.5M. Total assets stood at $382.5M, while shareholders equity reached $159.7M. The company reported a current ratio of 0.15 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.29. For FY2025, operating cash flow and free cash flow were both $540.7M. During FY2025, the company paid $35.9M in dividends, while its share count expanded 188.8% over the past 5 years.

At a last close of $3.46 on October 16, 2026, EARN traded at a forward P/E of 5.8x, below the median of 10.8x for its US-listed Financial Services peers. Its price-to-sales ratio was 3.3x, compared with the peer median of 3.2x, while price-to-book was 0.7x and EV-to-revenue was 10.0x. Over the past 1 year, the stock dropped 17.6%, underperforming the S&P 500 (SPY) return of 16.8%. Over a 5-year span, the stock fell 37.3%, compared to an 83.0% gain for the S&P 500.

Ellington Residential Mortgage REIT pays a monthly dividend with an annual forward dividend of $0.96, representing a dividend yield of 27.75%. The payout ratio is 41.0%. The company has paid dividends for 14 consecutive years, though its 5-year annualized dividend growth declined 3.0%. Its last ex-dividend date was October 30, 2026.

Wall Street analysts have 1 Buy and 3 Hold ratings on EARN, with 0 Strong Buy, 0 Sell, and 0 Strong Sell ratings. The mean price target of $5.00 represents a 44.5% upside from the last close of $3.46. For the current fiscal year ending March 31, 2027, the consensus EPS estimate is $0.76. Over the last 4 quarters, EARN beat EPS estimates 1 time. The company next earnings date is November 18, 2026.

This page is an AI-written research summary of Ellington Residential Mortgage REIT (EARN). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

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