Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) AI Stock Analysis
CAT AI stock analysis summary
AI ResearchCaterpillar Inc. (CAT) is a global manufacturer of heavy construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas engines, and industrial gas turbines. Over the trailing twelve months, the company generated $74.73B in revenue and achieved an operating margin of 22.2%. In the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly earnings grew 68.2% year-over-year.
- Market cap
- $335.91B
- Revenue (TTM)
- $74.73B
- P/E
- 31.5x fwd 25.4x
- 1Y return
- 36.3% S&P 500 16.8%
- Avg. target
- $951.11 30.2% vs last close
Bull case
- Quarterly earnings increased 68.2% year-over-year in the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, alongside 24.0% revenue growth.
- Trailing twelve-month return on equity reached 57.0%, while operating margin stood at 22.2%.
- Analysts project current fiscal year EPS to grow 43.4% to $27.33, followed by a 19.2% increase to $32.59 next fiscal year.
Bear case
- Total debt of $45.15B exceeds cash and short-term investments of $6.71B as of June 30, 2026, leaving net debt at $38.43B and debt-to-equity at 2.33.
- The stock trades at a valuation premium with a forward P/E of 25.4x compared to the S&P 500 Industrials median of 20.1x.
- Annual net income fell from $10.79B in FY2024 to $8.87B in FY2025 as gross margin declined from 36.0% to 32.3%.
What Caterpillar does
Caterpillar Inc. manufactures and distributes construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas engines, and industrial gas turbines. The company operates through three primary segments: Construction Industries, Resource Industries, and Energy & Transportation. Construction Industries provides equipment such as asphalt pavers, compactors, loaders, and utility vehicles. Resource Industries offers heavy mining machinery including shovels, drills, loaders, and mining trucks. The Energy & Transportation segment supplies power generation solutions, marine engines, turbines, and related services. Caterpillar also delivers financial products, aftermarket parts distribution, and digital logistics solutions across its global customer base.
Growth and profitability
Caterpillar grew annual revenue from $50.97B in FY2021 to $67.59B in FY2025, reflecting a 5-year revenue CAGR of 10.1% from FY2020 to FY2025. Annual net income reached $10.79B in FY2024 before moving to $8.87B in FY2025, alongside an operating margin of 16.6% and diluted EPS of $19.08. Free cash flow stood at $7.45B in FY2025, compared to $8.82B in FY2024 and $9.79B in FY2023. Over the trailing twelve months, revenue reached $74.73B with a net profit margin of 14.5%. In the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue expanded 24.0% year-over-year, while quarterly earnings grew 68.2%.
Balance sheet and cash flow
As of June 30, 2026, Caterpillar held $6.71B in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $45.15B, resulting in net debt of $38.43B. The company reported a current ratio of 1.37 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.33, based on shareholders' equity of $19.39B and total assets of $102.61B. In FY2025, operating cash flow reached $11.74B. Capital expenditures totaled $4.29B, share buybacks were $5.21B, and dividends paid totaled $2.75B. Caterpillar also reduced its share count by 14.8% over five years.
Valuation and performance
At a last close of $730.76, Caterpillar trades at a trailing P/E of 31.5x and a forward P/E of 25.4x, compared to the median of its S&P 500 Industrials peers at 28.4x and 20.1x. Its EV-to-EBITDA multiple of 24.5x sits above the peer median of 17.2x, while its price-to-sales ratio of 4.5x compares to the peer median of 3.1x. Over the past year, CAT returned 36.3%, outpacing the S&P 500 (SPY) return of 16.8%. Over five years, the stock returned 300.2% versus 83.0% for the index.
CAT dividend
Caterpillar pays a quarterly dividend with an annualized forward payout of $6.52 per share, representing a dividend yield of 0.89%. The payout ratio is 26.4%, supported by 45 consecutive years of dividend payments. Over the past five years, the dividend has grown at an annualized rate of 7.2%. The last ex-dividend date was October 26, 2026.
What analysts expect
Wall Street analyst ratings stand at 14 Strong Buy, 1 Buy, 12 Hold, 0 Sell, and 1 Strong Sell. The mean price target of $951.11 represents 30.2% upside from the last close of $730.76. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, analysts estimate EPS of $27.33 on revenue of $79.60B. For the next fiscal year, 27 analysts project EPS of $32.59 on revenue of $88.67B. Caterpillar beat EPS estimates in each of the last 4 quarters, with next earnings scheduled for October 29, 2026.
Key risks and what to watch
- Net debt stood at $38.43B with a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.33 as of June 30, 2026.
- Free cash flow decreased from $9.79B in FY2023 to $8.82B in FY2024 and $7.45B in FY2025.
- Caterpillar shares carry a beta of 1.58 and traded 9.1% below their 200-day moving average as of October 16, 2026.
AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer
About this CAT AI stock analysis
This page is an AI-written research summary of Caterpillar Inc. (CAT). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.
Related: CAT income statement, CAT balance sheet, CAT key metrics, CAT analyst forecast, CAT chart. See the CAT stock overview for the latest quote and news.
CAT AI stock analysis FAQ
What is Caterpillar's dividend yield and payment track record?
Caterpillar pays an annual forward dividend of $6.52 per share, which equates to a dividend yield of 0.89%. The company has paid dividends for 45 consecutive years and maintains a payout ratio of 26.4%.
When does Caterpillar report its next earnings?
Caterpillar is scheduled to report its next earnings on October 29, 2026. The company has beaten consensus EPS estimates in each of the past 4 quarters.
What is the consensus analyst price target for CAT?
The mean analyst price target for Caterpillar is $951.11, representing potential upside of 30.2% over the last close of $730.76.
How has Caterpillar stock performed compared to the S&P 500?
Over the past year, CAT gained 36.3% compared to 16.8% for the S&P 500 (SPY). Over five years, the stock generated a return of 300.2% versus 83.0% for the broader index.