Astrana Health, Inc. (ASTH) AI Stock Analysis
ASTH AI stock analysis summary
AI ResearchAstrana Health, Inc. (ASTH) is a physician-centric healthcare management company operating Care Partners, Care Delivery, and Care Enablement segments. While annual revenue expanded from $773.9M in FY2021 to $3.18B in FY2025, net income decreased from $68.9M to $22.5M over the same period. For the trailing twelve months, the company generated $3.84B in revenue with an operating margin of 3.5%.
- Market cap
- $1.83B
- Revenue (TTM)
- $3.84B
- P/E
- 44.3x fwd 9.0x
- 1Y return
- 15.8% S&P 500 16.8%
- Avg. target
- $51.67 40.4% vs last close
Bull case
- Astrana Health achieved a 5-year revenue CAGR of 53.8% from FY2020 to FY2025, with FY2025 revenue increasing 56.4% to $3.18B.
- The company demonstrated accelerating recent performance in the quarter ended June 30, 2026, delivering 110.5% year-over-year quarterly earnings growth.
- Analysts hold 8 Strong Buy and 2 Buy ratings with a mean price target of $51.67, representing 40.4% upside over the last close of $36.81.
Bear case
- Net margin compressed significantly from 8.9% in FY2021 to 0.7% in FY2025, pulling net income down to $22.5M.
- Astrana Health carries net debt of $578.6M as of June 30, 2026, with total debt of $979.4M exceeding its $830.2M in shareholders' equity.
- Over the past five years, ASTH shares recorded a return of -48.5%, trailing the S&P 500 return of 83.0%.
What Astrana Health does
Astrana Health, Inc., formerly known as Apollo Medical Holdings, Inc., is a physician-centric healthcare management company based in Alhambra, California. The company operates through three segments: Care Partners, Care Delivery, and Care Enablement, powered by its proprietary population health management platform. This integrated framework coordinates care for patients, families, primary care providers, specialists, acute care hospitals, physician groups, and health plans. Astrana Health supports a value-based healthcare model across the United States, serving patients covered by Medicare, Medicaid, health maintenance organizations, private insurance, and uninsured individuals.
Growth and profitability
Astrana Health delivered a 5-year revenue CAGR of 53.8% from FY2020 to FY2025. Annual revenue grew from $773.9M in FY2021 to $1.14B in FY2022, $1.39B in FY2023, $2.03B in FY2024, and reached $3.18B in FY2025, representing a 56.4% year-over-year increase. However, operating margin narrowed from 12.7% in FY2021 to 2.5% in FY2025, while net margin declined from 8.9% to 0.7%, resulting in net income falling to $22.5M in FY2025. In the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue grew 48.5% year-over-year, while quarterly earnings growth reached 110.5%. Trailing twelve months revenue stands at $3.84B with an operating margin of 3.5%.
Balance sheet and cash flow
As of June 30, 2026, Astrana Health held $400.8M in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $979.4M, resulting in net debt of $578.6M. The company reported shareholders' equity of $830.2M and total assets of $2.28B, yielding a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.18 and a current ratio of 1.23. In FY2025, operating cash flow reached $114.6M and free cash flow was $104.5M. Cash allocations in FY2025 included $10.1M in capital expenditures, $15.4M for share buybacks, and $7.9M in dividends paid.
Valuation and performance
ASTH trades at a trailing P/E of 44.3x, above the 24.6x median of its US-listed Healthcare peers. Its forward P/E is 9.0x compared to the peer median of 17.3x, and its price-to-sales multiple is 0.5x versus the peer median of 4.1x. The enterprise value to EBITDA ratio of 12.0x matches the peer median of 12.0x. Over the past year, the stock returned 15.8%, trailing the S&P 500 (SPY) return of 16.8%. Over a 5-year period, ASTH has a return of -48.5%, compared to an 83.0% gain for the benchmark.
What analysts expect
Wall Street analysts display a positive stance on ASTH, with 8 Strong Buy, 2 Buy, and 1 Hold ratings. The mean price target of $51.67 implies 40.4% upside relative to the last close of $36.81. For the current fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, consensus estimates project revenue of $3.98B and EPS of $3.07, representing 44.5% EPS growth. Astrana Health has beaten EPS estimates in each of the last 4 quarters, and its next earnings date is scheduled for November 5, 2026.
Key risks and what to watch
- Operating margin stands at 3.5% over the trailing twelve months, well below the 14.0% median for US-listed Healthcare peers.
- Short interest represents 11.9% of the float, reflecting elevated bearish sentiment in the market.
- The company's debt-to-equity ratio of 1.18 leaves Astrana Health with $979.4M in total debt obligations to manage against $400.8M in cash and short-term investments.
AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer
About this ASTH AI stock analysis
This page is an AI-written research summary of Astrana Health, Inc. (ASTH). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.
Related: ASTH income statement, ASTH balance sheet, ASTH key metrics, ASTH analyst forecast, ASTH chart. See the ASTH stock overview for the latest quote and news.
ASTH AI stock analysis FAQ
What does Astrana Health do?
Astrana Health, Inc., formerly known as Apollo Medical Holdings, Inc., operates a physician-centric healthcare management platform across Care Partners, Care Delivery, and Care Enablement segments. It supports value-based care coordination for patients, physicians, hospitals, and health plans.
When does Astrana Health report earnings next?
Astrana Health is scheduled to report its next earnings on November 5, 2026. The company has beaten consensus EPS estimates in each of the trailing 4 quarters.
What are analyst expectations for ASTH in FY2026?
For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, consensus analyst estimates forecast revenue of $3.98B and EPS of $3.07, which reflects projected annual EPS growth of 44.5%.
How does Astrana Health's valuation compare to sector peers?
ASTH trades at a forward P/E of 9.0x and price-to-sales of 0.5x, below the US-listed Healthcare peer medians of 17.3x and 4.1x, respectively, though its trailing P/E of 44.3x is higher than the peer median of 24.6x.