Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. (ARLP) AI Stock Analysis
ARLP AI stock analysis summary
AI ResearchAlliance Resource Partners, L.P. (ARLP) is a natural resource company producing thermal and metallurgical coal alongside oil and gas royalty assets. The partnership generated $2.17B in trailing twelve months revenue with a 12.2% net profit margin. Offering a 9.33% dividend yield, the company maintains low leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.33.
- Market cap
- $3.31B
- Revenue (TTM)
- $2.17B
- P/E
- 12.6x fwd 9.0x
- 1Y return
- 15.8% S&P 500 16.8%
- Avg. target
- $31.17 21.0% vs last close
Bull case
- The partnership generated $387.9M in free cash flow in FY2025 while maintaining a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.33.
- Quarterly earnings rebounded with 34.1% year-over-year growth in the quarter ended June 30, 2026, supported by 4 consecutive quarters of earnings beats.
- Unit holders receive a 9.33% dividend yield backed by a 28-year payment history and a 5-year annualized dividend growth rate of 45.4%.
Bear case
- Annual revenue contracted for two consecutive years, declining 4.6% in FY2024 and 10.4% in FY2025 to $2.19B.
- The partnership carries a high dividend payout ratio of 95.2%, which absorbed $337.2M of cash flow in FY2025.
- Current fiscal year EPS is projected to decrease 7.6% to $2.46 compared to FY2025 EPS of $2.66.
What Alliance Resource Partners does
Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. operates as a diversified natural resource company based in Tulsa, Oklahoma. Established in 1971, the company produces and distributes coal to utilities and industrial customers through four operating segments: Illinois Basin Coal Operations, Appalachia Coal Operations, Oil & Gas Royalties, and Coal Royalties. It manages seven underground mining complexes across Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia, and operates a coal loading terminal along the Ohio River in Mt. Vernon, Indiana. In addition, the firm holds mineral and royalty interests across approximately 1.5 million gross acres in the Permian, Anadarko, and Williston Basins, alongside offering advanced mining technology and collision avoidance systems.
Growth and profitability
Alliance Resource Partners achieved a 5-year revenue CAGR of 10.6% from FY2020 to FY2025. Annual revenue expanded from $1.57B in FY2021 to a peak of $2.57B in FY2023, before declining 4.6% to $2.45B in FY2024 and falling 10.4% to $2.19B in FY2025. Net income followed a similar path, rising from $178.2M in FY2021 to $630.1M in FY2023, then settling at $311.2M in FY2025 with a net margin of 14.2%. Over the trailing twelve months, revenue totaled $2.17B and operating margin stood at 17.0%. For the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue grew 0.7% year-over-year while quarterly earnings expanded 34.1%.
Balance sheet and cash flow
As of June 30, 2026, Alliance Resource Partners held $111.2M in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $590.9M, resulting in net debt of $479.7M. The balance sheet reflects shareholders' equity of $1.77B, a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.33, and a current ratio of 1.75. In FY2025, operating cash flow reached $651.1M and free cash flow stood at $387.9M. Cash deployment for FY2025 included $263.3M in capital expenditures, $337.2M in dividends paid, and $7.1M spent on share buybacks, while the share count increased 1.2% over 5 years.
Valuation and performance
Alliance Resource Partners trades at a trailing P/E of 12.6x and a forward P/E of 9.0x, both lower than the median of its US-listed Energy peers at 15.0x and 12.7x, respectively. The partnership's price-to-sales ratio is 1.5x compared to the peer median of 1.8x, though its EV/EBITDA of 11.2x is above the peer median of 8.0x. Over the past year, the stock returned 15.8%, trailing the S&P 500 return of 16.8%. Over a 5-year period, ARLP gained 266.9%, outperforming the S&P 500 gain of 83.0%.
ARLP dividend
Alliance Resource Partners pays a quarterly dividend totaling an annualized forward payout of $2.40 per unit, translating to a dividend yield of 9.33%. The partnership has maintained 28 consecutive years of dividend payments, achieving a 5-year annualized dividend growth rate of 45.4%. Its payout ratio stands at 95.2%, and the last ex-dividend date was August 7, 2026.
What analysts expect
Wall Street coverage on Alliance Resource Partners includes 2 Strong Buy ratings and no Buy, Hold, or Sell ratings. The mean price target is $31.17, representing an upside of 21.0% over the last close of $25.75. For the current fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, analysts estimate revenue of $2.24B and EPS of $2.46, representing an EPS decline of 7.6%. For the next fiscal year, 3 analysts project revenue of $2.32B and EPS of $2.91. The company has beaten EPS estimates in each of the last 4 quarters, and the next earnings date is October 26, 2026.
Key risks and what to watch
- A payout ratio of 95.2% leaves little margin for distribution coverage if coal prices or operating cash flows fall below the FY2025 level of $651.1M.
- Full-year revenue softened from $2.57B in FY2023 down to $2.19B in FY2025, reflecting potential exposure to coal demand fluctuations.
- EV/EBITDA of 11.2x trades at a premium to the US-listed Energy peer median of 8.0x despite lower top-line growth rates.
AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer
About this ARLP AI stock analysis
This page is an AI-written research summary of Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. (ARLP). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.
Related: ARLP income statement, ARLP balance sheet, ARLP key metrics, ARLP analyst forecast, ARLP chart. See the ARLP stock overview for the latest quote and news.
ARLP AI stock analysis FAQ
What dividend does Alliance Resource Partners pay?
Alliance Resource Partners pays a quarterly distribution with a forward annual dividend of $2.40 per unit, representing a dividend yield of 9.33%. The partnership has paid distributions for 28 consecutive years and has a payout ratio of 95.2%.
What are analysts' price targets for ARLP stock?
Analysts hold a mean price target of $31.17 for ARLP, which represents a 21.0% upside compared to its closing price of $25.75 on October 16, 2026. The stock carries 2 Strong Buy ratings and no Hold or Sell recommendations.
How much debt does Alliance Resource Partners carry?
As of June 30, 2026, the company held $590.9M in total debt and $111.2M in cash and short-term investments, resulting in net debt of $479.7M. Its debt-to-equity ratio is 0.33 and its current ratio is 1.75.
When is Alliance Resource Partners reporting earnings next?
Alliance Resource Partners is scheduled to report its next earnings on October 26, 2026. Consensus estimates for the current fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, forecast EPS of $2.46 and revenue of $2.24B.