Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. (ALSN) AI Stock Analysis

NYSE: ALSNAI research summary: business, growth, valuation, analysts, bull and bear case.

ALSN AI stock analysis summary

AI Research

Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. (ALSN) designs and manufactures fully automatic transmissions for commercial and defense vehicles. Trailing twelve month revenue reached $4.40B with a profit margin of 12.0%. The company generated $649.0M in free cash flow in FY2025 and maintains a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 10.2x.

Market cap
$9.23B
Revenue (TTM)
$4.40B
P/E
17.8x
fwd 10.2x
1Y return
38.2%
S&P 500 16.8%
Avg. target
$138.91
24.2% vs last close

Bull case

  • Operating cash flow reached $824.0M in FY2025, enabling $649.0M in free cash flow and a low dividend payout ratio of 13.8%.
  • Consensus estimates forecast FY2026 EPS of $9.95, reflecting projected annual earnings growth of 31.2%.
  • The stock trades at a forward P/E of 10.2x and a PEG ratio of 0.52, both sitting below broader sector peer medians.

Bear case

  • Total debt stood at $4.11B as of June 30, 2026, creating a net debt load of $3.71B and a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.08.
  • Annual revenue fell 6.7% in FY2025 to $3.01B, alongside a net income decrease from $731.0M to $623.0M.
  • Quarterly earnings for the period ended June 30, 2026, declined 6.1% year-over-year despite elevated quarterly revenue growth.

What Allison Transmission does

Headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana, Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. designs, manufactures, and distributes fully automatic transmissions for medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicles as well as medium- and heavy-tactical U.S. defense vehicles. Its transmissions serve applications such as refuse collection, construction, distribution, fire response, school and transit buses, motor homes, and off-highway energy and mining equipment. The company also offers transmissions for wheeled and tracked defense vehicles, electric propulsion solutions for alternative energy transport, and remanufactured transmissions under the ReTran brand. In addition, Allison provides branded replacement parts, support equipment, and aluminum die cast components to support its installed base.

Growth and profitability

Allison Transmission experienced revenue growth from $2.40B in FY2021 to $3.23B in FY2024 before revenue fell 6.7% to $3.01B in FY2025. Despite the annual decline, operating margin expanded from 27.9% in FY2021 to 32.3% in FY2025. Net income was $623.0M in FY2025, down from $731.0M in FY2024, yielding diluted EPS of $7.47. Over the 5-year period from FY2020 to FY2025, revenue grew at a CAGR of 7.7%. For the trailing twelve months ended June 30, 2026, revenue stood at $4.40B with an operating margin of 19.1%. In the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, revenue rose 92.4% year-over-year while quarterly earnings declined 6.1%.

ALSN income statement →

Balance sheet and cash flow

As of June 30, 2026, Allison Transmission held $399.0M in cash and short-term investments against $4.11B in total debt, resulting in net debt of $3.71B. Shareholders' equity was $1.98B, yielding a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.08, while total assets stood at $8.72B with a current ratio of 1.81. In FY2025, the company generated $824.0M in operating cash flow and deployed capital toward $175.0M in capital expenditures, $328.0M in share buybacks, and $91.0M in dividends paid. Its share count declined 18.1% over five years.

ALSN balance sheet →

Valuation and performance

Allison Transmission trades at a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 17.8x, compared to 18.0x for the median of its US-listed Consumer Cyclical peers. Its forward P/E of 10.2x sits below the peer median of 14.1x, while its enterprise value-to-EBITDA ratio of 12.2x compares to the peer median of 11.1x. The stock has a price-to-sales ratio of 2.1x and a PEG ratio of 0.52. Over the past year, ALSN gained 38.2%, outperforming the 16.8% return of the S&P 500 benchmark, and has risen 243.1% over five years versus 83.0% for the index.

ALSN key metrics →

ALSN dividend

Allison Transmission pays a forward annual dividend of $1.16 per share, representing a 1.04% dividend yield and a payout ratio of 13.8%. The company has distributed dividends for 15 consecutive years and recorded a 5-year annualized dividend growth rate of 9.7%. Its last ex-dividend date was August 21, 2026.

ALSN dividend history →

What analysts expect

Wall Street coverage includes 5 Strong Buy, 1 Buy, 4 Hold, and 1 Sell ratings. The mean price target is $138.91, representing upside of 24.2% above the last closing price of $111.80. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, analysts estimate revenue of $5.94B and EPS of $9.95, representing 31.2% EPS growth. The company beat EPS estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters, and the next earnings date is November 4, 2026.

ALSN forecast and price target →

Key risks and what to watch

  • Net debt of $3.71B alongside cash holdings of $399.0M requires steady operating cash flow to manage debt obligations.
  • Earnings fell 6.1% year-over-year in the quarter ended June 30, 2026, highlighting potential bottom-line margin pressure.
  • The company has met or beaten analyst earnings expectations in only 2 of the trailing 4 quarters.
  • Revenue growth dipped into negative territory in FY2025 at -6.7%, demonstrating vulnerability to cyclical commercial vehicle demand.

AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer

About this ALSN AI stock analysis

This page is an AI-written research summary of Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. (ALSN). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

Related: ALSN income statement, ALSN balance sheet, ALSN key metrics, ALSN analyst forecast, ALSN chart. See the ALSN stock overview for the latest quote and news.

ALSN AI stock analysis FAQ

What is Allison Transmission's dividend yield and track record?

Allison Transmission offers a dividend yield of 1.04% based on a forward annual payout of $1.16 per share. It has paid dividends for 15 consecutive years with a 5-year annualized dividend growth rate of 9.7%.

How leveraged is Allison Transmission's balance sheet?

As of June 30, 2026, the company held $4.11B in total debt and $399.0M in cash and short-term investments, resulting in net debt of $3.71B. Its debt-to-equity ratio was 2.08 with a current ratio of 1.81.

What are analysts forecasting for Allison Transmission in FY2026?

For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, analysts expect revenue of $5.94B and earnings per share of $9.95, which represents a 31.2% increase in EPS.

When is Allison Transmission's next earnings report?

The company's next earnings date is scheduled for November 4, 2026.

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