Aflac Incorporated (AFL) AI Stock Analysis

NYSE: AFLAI research summary: business, growth, valuation, analysts, bull and bear case.

AFL AI stock analysis summary

AI Research

Aflac Incorporated (AFL) is a supplemental health and life insurance provider operating primarily in the United States and Japan. Over the trailing twelve months, the company generated $18.07B in revenue with a net profit margin of 26.9%. While its 5-year revenue CAGR stands at -4.7%, Aflac maintains strong capital distributions, reducing its share count by 23.7% over 5 years.

Market cap
$60.15B
Revenue (TTM)
$18.07B
P/E
12.9x
fwd 15.2x
1Y return
14.8%
S&P 500 16.8%
Avg. target
$117.33
-2.2% vs last close

Bull case

  • Quarterly earnings growth surged 46.8% year-over-year in the quarter ended June 30, 2026.
  • Aflac maintains a strong liquidity position with $93.65B in cash and short-term investments and net cash of $84.92B.
  • The company has built a reliable capital return record with 43 consecutive years of dividend payments and a 15.7% 5-year annualized dividend growth rate.

Bear case

  • Aflac recorded a negative 5-year revenue CAGR of -4.7% from FY2020 through FY2025.
  • Consensus estimates project current fiscal year EPS to fall 6.2% to $7.02 alongside revenue of $16.94B.
  • The company beat EPS estimates in only 1 of the last 4 quarters, while the mean price target of $117.33 sits 2.2% below the last close.

What Aflac does

Aflac Incorporated specializes in supplemental health and life insurance products across two main segments: Aflac Japan and Aflac U.S. In Japan, the company offers medical, cancer, nursing care, and life insurance policies, along with savings-oriented plans like WAYS and child endowment policies. In the United States, Aflac provides cancer, accident, short-term disability, critical illness, dental, vision, and life insurance policies. Products in the U.S. are distributed through sales associates, brokers, corporate agencies, and independent agencies to serve individuals and families.

Growth and profitability

Aflac's annual revenue contracted from $22.11B in FY2021 to $17.44B in FY2025, reflecting a 5-year revenue CAGR of -4.7%. Despite revenue falling 8.8% in FY2025, diluted EPS reached $7.50 compared to $5.99 in FY2021, supported by a gross margin of 38.9% and an operating margin of 26.6%. Annual net income totaled $3.65B in FY2025, down from $5.44B in FY2024. For the trailing twelve months, revenue reached $18.07B with an operating margin of 25.7% and a profit margin of 26.9%. In the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue fell 1.0% year-over-year, while quarterly earnings grew 46.8%.

AFL income statement →

Balance sheet and cash flow

As of June 30, 2026, Aflac held $93.65B in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $8.73B, resulting in net cash of $84.92B. The company reported total assets of $115.96B, shareholders' equity of $30.31B, a current ratio of 11.31, and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.29. In FY2025, operating cash flow and free cash flow were both $2.56B. Aflac directed capital toward shareholders, deploying $3.53B into share buybacks and paying $1.20B in dividends, contributing to a 23.7% share count reduction over 5 years.

AFL balance sheet →

Valuation and performance

Aflac trades at a trailing P/E of 12.9x, which is below the 14.2x median of its S&P 500 Financial Services peers. However, its forward P/E of 15.2x sits above the peer median of 12.2x, and its price-to-sales of 3.3x compares to the peer median of 3.1x. The company holds an enterprise value of $67.72B and a PEG ratio of 1.18. Over the past year, AFL delivered a return of 14.8%, trailing the S&P 500 return of 16.8%, but its 5-year return of 141.8% outperformed the index return of 83.0%.

AFL key metrics →

AFL dividend

Aflac offers a forward annual dividend of $2.44 per share, translating to a dividend yield of 2.03% with a payout ratio of 31.9%. Paid on a quarterly basis, the company has maintained 43 consecutive years of dividend payments. Over the past 5 years, dividend growth annualized reached 15.7%, with its last ex-dividend date on August 19, 2026.

AFL dividend history →

What analysts expect

Wall Street analyst sentiment includes 1 Strong Buy, 2 Buys, 8 Holds, 1 Sell, and 3 Strong Sells. The mean price target of $117.33 represents a decline of 2.2% from the last close of $119.97. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, analysts estimate EPS of $7.02 and revenue of $16.94B. In the prior 4 quarters, Aflac exceeded EPS estimates once. The next earnings date is November 4, 2026.

AFL forecast and price target →

Key risks and what to watch

  • Quarterly revenue contracted 1.0% year-over-year in the latest quarter, continuing the top-line decline observed in FY2025 when revenue fell 8.8%.
  • Annual free cash flow declined from $5.05B in FY2021 to $2.56B in FY2025, which may impact future share repurchases or dividend expansion.
  • Aflac's forward P/E ratio of 15.2x trades at a premium to the median of its S&P 500 Financial Services peers of 12.2x despite near-term earnings headwinds.
  • Analyst sentiment skews cautious, with 12 out of 15 ratings categorized as Hold, Sell, or Strong Sell.

AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer

About this AFL AI stock analysis

This page is an AI-written research summary of Aflac Incorporated (AFL). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

Related: AFL income statement, AFL balance sheet, AFL key metrics, AFL analyst forecast, AFL chart. See the AFL stock overview for the latest quote and news.

AFL AI stock analysis FAQ

What is Aflac's dividend yield and track record?

Aflac pays an annual forward dividend of $2.44 per share, which represents a dividend yield of 2.03% with a payout ratio of 31.9%. The company has paid dividends for 43 consecutive years and generated a 5-year annualized dividend growth rate of 15.7%.

How has AFL stock performed against the broader market?

Over the past 1 year, AFL gained 14.8%, trailing the S&P 500 return of 16.8%. Over a 5-year horizon, AFL rose 141.8%, outperforming the S&P 500 return of 83.0%.

What are analysts projecting for Aflac's revenue and earnings?

For FY2026, analysts estimate revenue of $16.94B and EPS of $7.02, reflecting an EPS decline of 6.2%. For the next fiscal year, 15 analysts project revenue of $17.23B and EPS of $7.62, representing 8.4% EPS growth.

How strong is Aflac's balance sheet?

As of June 30, 2026, Aflac held $93.65B in cash and short-term investments against $8.73B in total debt, creating net cash of $84.92B. Its debt-to-equity ratio is 0.29, with a current ratio of 11.31.

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