Ermenegildo Zegna N.V. (ZGN) AI Stock Analysis
ZGN AI stock analysis summary
AI ResearchErmenegildo Zegna N.V. is a global luxury menswear and lifestyle company operating the Zegna and Thom Browne brands. Trailing twelve-month revenue reached $1.98B, though earnings dropped 49.2% year-over-year in the latest quarter ending June 30, 2026. The stock delivered a 1-year return of 30.5% and trades at a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 36.9x.
- Market cap
- $3.47B
- Revenue (TTM)
- $1.98B
- P/E
- 36.9x fwd 22.6x
- 1Y return
- 30.5% S&P 500 16.8%
- Avg. target
- $14.54 12.6% vs last close
Bull case
- Free cash flow strengthened to $242.2M in FY2025, supported by operating cash flow of $322.3M.
- Analysts project next fiscal year revenue to grow 8.5% to $2.23B, with EPS expected to surge 35.3% to $0.53.
- The stock gained 30.5% over the past year, outperforming the 16.8% return of the S&P 500 (SPY).
Bear case
- Quarterly earnings dropped 49.2% year-over-year in the latest quarter ending June 30, 2026.
- Annual revenue contracted 5.4% in FY2025 as gross margin fell from 66.6% to 55.6%.
- The trailing P/E ratio of 36.9x sits significantly above the median of its US-listed Consumer Cyclical peers of 18.0x.
What Ermenegildo Zegna does
Ermenegildo Zegna N.V. is an apparel manufacturer founded in 1910 and headquartered in Trivero, Italy. The company designs, manufactures, and distributes upscale clothing, footwear, leather goods, and accessories under the Zegna and Thom Browne brands. Its product lineup includes luxury leisurewear, formal attire such as suits and tuxedos, fragrances, shoes, bags, and belts. Under the Thom Browne label, it also offers luxury womenswear and children's apparel, alongside licensed items like eyewear, watches, and jewelry. Ermenegildo Zegna serves global customers across Europe, the Middle East, Africa, North America, Latin America, and the Asia Pacific through retail stores and online channels.
Growth and profitability
Revenue grew at a 5-year CAGR of 12.5% from FY2020 to FY2025. Annual revenue expanded from $1.29B in FY2021 to $1.90B in FY2023, before moderating to $1.95B in FY2024 and declining 5.4% to $1.84B in FY2025. Gross margin reached 66.6% in FY2024 before falling to 55.6% in FY2025, while net income was $94.7M in FY2025 with an operating margin of 8.5%. Over the trailing twelve months, revenue reached $1.98B with an operating margin of 7.2% and EPS of $0.35. For the latest quarter ending June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue grew 6.4% year-over-year, but quarterly earnings fell 49.2%.
Balance sheet and cash flow
As of June 30, 2026, Ermenegildo Zegna held $294.4M in cash and short-term investments against $1.15B in total debt, resulting in net debt of $857.1M. Shareholders' equity was $1.04B, giving a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.11 and a current ratio of 1.47. In FY2025, the business generated operating cash flow of $322.3M and free cash flow of $242.2M. Capital expenditures used $80.1M, dividends paid totaled $29.3M, and share issuance was $107.2M.
Valuation and performance
At a market cap of $3.47B and an enterprise value of $4.32B, Ermenegildo Zegna trades at a trailing P/E of 36.9x and a forward P/E of 22.6x. Both multiples are higher than the median of its US-listed Consumer Cyclical peers, which stand at 18.0x and 14.1x, respectively. Its EV-to-EBITDA ratio of 9.0x sits below the peer median of 11.1x. Over the past year, ZGN stock gained 30.5%, outperforming the SPY return of 16.8%, though its 5-year return of 37.9% trails the SPY return of 83.0%.
ZGN dividend
Ermenegildo Zegna pays an annual forward dividend of $0.14 per share, translating to a dividend yield of 1.06%. The payout ratio is 40.0%, and dividends have been paid for 5 consecutive years. Its last ex-dividend date occurred on July 6, 2026.
What analysts expect
Wall Street sentiment includes 7 Strong Buy, 2 Buy, 3 Hold, and 1 Sell recommendations. The mean price target is $14.54, which represents 12.6% upside from the last close of $12.91 on October 16, 2026. For FY2026 ending December 31, 2026, consensus estimates project revenue of $2.05B and EPS of $0.39. The company beat EPS estimates in 1 of the last 4 quarters. The next earnings date is October 22, 2026.
Key risks and what to watch
- Net debt stood at $857.1M as of June 30, 2026, with total debt of $1.15B exceeding shareholders' equity of $1.04B.
- The company has beaten analyst EPS estimates in only 1 of the last 4 quarters.
- The 5-year share count change of 31.6% reflects substantial dilution over time.
AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer
About this ZGN AI stock analysis
This page is an AI-written research summary of Ermenegildo Zegna N.V. (ZGN). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.
Related: ZGN income statement, ZGN balance sheet, ZGN key metrics, ZGN analyst forecast, ZGN chart. See the ZGN stock overview for the latest quote and news.
ZGN AI stock analysis FAQ
What is Ermenegildo Zegna's dividend yield and payout schedule?
ZGN pays an annual dividend of $0.14 per share, which corresponds to a dividend yield of 1.06%. The dividend has a payout ratio of 40.0% and has been paid for 5 consecutive years.
When does Ermenegildo Zegna report earnings next?
The company's next earnings date is scheduled for October 22, 2026. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, analysts expect an EPS of $0.39 and revenue of $2.05B.
How much debt does Ermenegildo Zegna hold?
As of June 30, 2026, Ermenegildo Zegna carried $1.15B in total debt and $294.4M in cash and short-term investments, resulting in net debt of $857.1M. Its debt-to-equity ratio is 1.11.
Who owns the majority of Ermenegildo Zegna stock?
Insiders hold 70.3% of the company's shares, while institutional investors own 29.0%. Short interest represents 9.9% of the float.