Turning Point Brands, Inc. (TPB) AI Stock Analysis

NYSE: TPBAI research summary: business, growth, valuation, analysts, bull and bear case.

TPB AI stock analysis summary

AI Research

Turning Point Brands, Inc. (TPB) manufactures, markets, and distributes branded consumer products across rolling papers, smokeless tobacco, and non-tobacco alternative segments. In FY2025, revenue grew 28.4% to $463.1M with a net income of $58.2M, while trailing twelve-month revenue reached $507.2M. The company maintains a current ratio of 5.67 and an enterprise value of $1.26B as of October 16, 2026.

Market cap
$1.21B
Revenue (TTM)
$507.2M
P/E
27.0x
fwd 38.2x
1Y return
-30.5%
S&P 500 16.8%
Avg. target
$118.50
89.1% vs last close

Bull case

  • In FY2025, revenue grew 28.4% to $463.1M while gross margin expanded to 57.1%.
  • The company maintains a solid liquidity cushion with a current ratio of 5.67 and $268.3M in cash and short-term investments as of June 30, 2026.
  • Analysts maintain 5 Strong Buy ratings and 1 Buy rating with a mean price target of $118.50.

Bear case

  • Quarterly earnings fell 77.2% year-over-year in the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026.
  • The forward P/E of 38.2x trades at a substantial premium to the median of its US-listed Consumer Defensive peers of 14.3x.
  • Full-year EPS for the current fiscal year ending December 31, 2026 is projected to fall 55.6% to $1.76.

What Turning Point Brands does

Turning Point Brands, Inc. operates across three distinct divisions: Zig-Zag Products, Stoker's Products, and NewGen Products. Under Zig-Zag Products, the company markets rolling papers, tubes, cigars, cigar wraps, and related accessories. The Stoker's Products segment produces and distributes moist snuff tobacco and loose-leaf chewing tobacco brands, including Stoker's, Beech-Nut, Durango, Trophy, and Wind River. Through NewGen Products, the company distributes cannabidiol (CBD) isolate, liquid vapor products, and non-nicotine items via VaporFi and VaporBeast. The company reaches consumers through wholesale distributors and retail merchants, including convenience stores, tobacco outlets, food stores, mass merchandisers, and drug stores.

Growth and profitability

Revenue increased 28.4% to $463.1M in FY2025, rebounding from $321.2M in FY2022 and $360.7M in FY2024, yielding a 5-year revenue CAGR of 2.7% from FY2020. Gross margin widened from 48.9% in FY2021 to 57.1% in FY2025, while operating margin was 20.6%. Annual net income rose to $58.2M in FY2025, corresponding to an EPS of $3.97. For the trailing twelve months, revenue reached $507.2M with an operating margin of 4.2% and EPS of $2.32. In the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue increased 22.6% year-over-year, while quarterly earnings declined 77.2%.

TPB income statement →

Balance sheet and cash flow

As of June 30, 2026, Turning Point Brands held $268.3M in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $310.7M, resulting in net debt of $42.4M. The company reported shareholders' equity of $430.1M and total assets of $855.2M, supported by a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.72 and a current ratio of 5.67. In FY2025, operating cash flow stood at $57.4M and free cash flow was $43.8M. Cash deployment during FY2025 included $13.5M in capital expenditures, $5.5M in dividends paid, and $33,000 in share buybacks.

TPB balance sheet →

Valuation and performance

At a share price of $62.65, Turning Point Brands carries a market cap of $1.21B and an enterprise value of $1.26B. The stock trades at a trailing P/E of 27.0x and a forward P/E of 38.2x, above the median of its US-listed Consumer Defensive peers of 18.6x and 14.3x, respectively. Its price-to-sales multiple is 2.5x compared to the peer median of 0.7x, and EV to EBITDA stands at 12.3x versus the peer median of 11.7x. Over the past year, the stock declined 30.5%, trailing the S&P 500 return of 16.8%.

TPB key metrics →

TPB dividend

Turning Point Brands pays an annual forward dividend of $0.32 per share, yielding 0.51% with a payout ratio of 10.4%. The company distributes dividends quarterly and has paid dividends for 10 consecutive years. Its 5-year annualized dividend growth rate stands at 8.4%, and the most recent ex-dividend date occurred on September 18, 2026.

TPB dividend history →

What analysts expect

Wall Street coverage includes 5 Strong Buy ratings, 1 Buy rating, and zero Hold, Sell, or Strong Sell ratings. The mean price target is $118.50, representing an upside of 89.1% versus the last close of $62.65. For the current fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, consensus estimates project revenue of $567.0M and EPS of $1.76. Across the last 4 quarters, the company recorded 4 EPS beats. The next earnings date is scheduled for November 4, 2026.

TPB forecast and price target →

Key risks and what to watch

  • Short interest represents 16.5% of float as of October 16, 2026, indicating elevated market skepticism.
  • Total debt of $310.7M exceeds cash and short-term investments of $268.3M, leaving net debt at $42.4M as of June 30, 2026.
  • The stock has dropped 42.0% year-to-date and trades 29.3% below its 200-day average.

AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer

About this TPB AI stock analysis

This page is an AI-written research summary of Turning Point Brands, Inc. (TPB). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

Related: TPB income statement, TPB balance sheet, TPB key metrics, TPB analyst forecast, TPB chart. See the TPB stock overview for the latest quote and news.

TPB AI stock analysis FAQ

What is Turning Point Brands' current dividend yield?

Turning Point Brands offers a forward dividend yield of 0.51%, based on an annual payout of $0.32 per share and a payout ratio of 10.4%.

How did Turning Point Brands perform in its latest financial quarter?

In the quarter ended June 30, 2026, revenue increased 22.6% year-over-year, while quarterly earnings dropped 77.2%.

What are analyst expectations for TPB's earnings and price target?

Analysts have an average price target of $118.50, representing an 89.1% premium to its $62.65 share price, though current fiscal year EPS is projected to decline 55.6% to $1.76.

What is the balance sheet position of Turning Point Brands?

As of June 30, 2026, the company held $268.3M in cash and short-term investments alongside $310.7M in total debt, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.72 and a current ratio of 5.67.

More Consumer Defensive AI stock analysis