Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) AI Stock Analysis

NYSE: PMAI research summary: business, growth, valuation, analysts, bull and bear case.

PM AI stock analysis summary

AI Research

Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) is a global tobacco company transitioning toward smoke-free nicotine products alongside its traditional cigarette brands. The company generated $42.55B in trailing twelve-month revenue with a 40.0% operating margin, supported by a 5-year revenue CAGR of 7.2%. However, its balance sheet carries net debt of $43.11B and negative shareholders' equity of -$8.58B.

Market cap
$319.83B
Revenue (TTM)
$42.55B
P/E
29.5x
fwd 20.9x
1Y return
36.2%
S&P 500 16.8%
Avg. target
$208.80
1.8% vs last close

Bull case

  • Trailing twelve-month operating margin reached 40.0%, well above the S&P 500 Consumer Defensive peer median of 15.5%.
  • Full-year free cash flow was $10.66B in FY2025, comfortably supporting $8.62B in dividend distributions.
  • The stock delivered a 1-year return of 36.2%, more than double the S&P 500 benchmark gain of 16.8%.

Bear case

  • Balance sheet leverage remains elevated with net debt of $43.11B and negative shareholders' equity of -$8.58B as of June 30, 2026.
  • Quarterly earnings fell 7.5% year-over-year in the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026.
  • Valuation multiples trade at a premium to the sector median, including a price-to-sales ratio of 7.5x compared to the peer median of 1.6x.

What Philip Morris does

Philip Morris International Inc. operates as a global tobacco company expanding its portfolio toward smoke-free alternatives and traditional nicotine products across 71 markets outside the United States. Its smoke-free portfolio includes heat-not-burn, vapor, and oral nicotine offerings marketed under brand names such as HEETS, Marlboro HeatSticks, Parliament HeatSticks, and TEREA, alongside licensed brands Fiit and Miix. The company also sells traditional cigarette brands including Marlboro, Parliament, Bond Street, and L&M. Headquartered in New York City, the company employs 84,900 people and focuses on developing reduced-risk alternatives through advanced research and technology.

Growth and profitability

Between FY2021 and FY2025, annual revenue increased from $31.41B to $40.65B, reflecting a 5-year revenue CAGR of 7.2%. Gross margin improved from 16.9% in FY2021 to 67.1% in FY2025, while operating margin expanded from 9.4% to 36.6%. Annual net income reached $11.35B in FY2025, up from $2.23B in FY2021, with diluted earnings per share growing from $6.07 to $7.54 over the same period. For the trailing twelve months ended June 30, 2026, revenue stood at $42.55B with a net profit margin of 25.6%. In the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue grew 10.4% year-over-year, while quarterly earnings declined 7.5%.

PM income statement →

Balance sheet and cash flow

As of June 30, 2026, Philip Morris held $6.00B in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $49.11B, resulting in net debt of $43.11B. Shareholders' equity was -$8.58B on total assets of $68.27B, and the current ratio was 0.98. In FY2025, the company generated $12.23B in operating cash flow and $10.66B in free cash flow. Capital expenditures totaled $1.57B, while dividends paid consumed $8.62B. Over the last five years, the company's share count rose by 0.4%.

PM balance sheet →

Valuation and performance

Philip Morris trades at a trailing P/E of 29.5x and a forward P/E of 20.9x, both at a premium to the median of its S&P 500 Consumer Defensive peers of 23.3x and 15.2x, respectively. Its enterprise value stands at $340.56B with an EV-to-EBITDA multiple of 18.2x, compared to the peer median of 13.3x. Over the past year, PM stock gained 36.2%, outperforming the S&P 500 (SPY) return of 16.8%. Over a 5-year period, the stock returned 162.5% compared to 83.0% for the benchmark index.

PM key metrics →

PM dividend

Philip Morris has paid consecutive dividends for 19 years and delivers an annualized forward dividend of $6.40 per share, yielding 3.12%. Dividends are distributed quarterly with a payout ratio of 74.2%. Over the past five years, dividend growth averaged an annualized rate of 3.5%. The most recent ex-dividend date occurred on October 2, 2026.

PM dividend history →

What analysts expect

Wall Street coverage includes 9 Strong Buy, 3 Buy, and 4 Hold ratings, with no Sell or Strong Sell recommendations. The mean price target is $208.80, representing an upside of 1.8% over the last close of $205.20. For FY2026 ending December 31, 2026, consensus estimates project EPS of $8.41 on revenue of $43.55B. Over the last four quarters, the company topped EPS expectations 3 times. The next earnings release is scheduled for October 21, 2026.

PM forecast and price target →

Key risks and what to watch

  • A current ratio of 0.98 highlights modest short-term liquidity relative to near-term obligations.
  • High leverage is reflected in total debt of $49.11B against cash reserves of $6.00B.
  • A dividend payout ratio of 74.2% leaves a narrower buffer if free cash flow declines from its FY2025 level of $10.66B.

AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer

About this PM AI stock analysis

This page is an AI-written research summary of Philip Morris International Inc. (PM). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

Related: PM income statement, PM balance sheet, PM key metrics, PM analyst forecast, PM chart. See the PM stock overview for the latest quote and news.

PM AI stock analysis FAQ

What dividend does Philip Morris pay?

Philip Morris pays an annual forward dividend of $6.40 per share on a quarterly schedule, which corresponds to a dividend yield of 3.12% and a payout ratio of 74.2%.

What are Wall Street's expectations for Philip Morris's earnings?

For FY2026 ending December 31, 2026, analysts estimate consensus EPS of $8.41, representing 11.5% growth, on projected revenue of $43.55B.

How leveraged is Philip Morris's balance sheet?

As of June 30, 2026, the company held $49.11B in total debt and $6.00B in cash, producing net debt of $43.11B alongside negative shareholders' equity of -$8.58B.

How has PM stock performed relative to the broader market?

Over the past year, PM stock returned 36.2% versus 16.8% for the S&P 500, and over five years it gained 162.5% compared to 83.0% for the index.

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