Sera Prognostics, Inc. (SERA) AI Stock Analysis
SERA AI stock analysis summary
AI ResearchSera Prognostics, Inc. (SERA) is a diagnostic company developing biomarker tests to improve maternal and neonatal health outcomes, centered on its PreTRM test. In FY2025, the company generated $81,000 in revenue while reporting a net loss of -$31.9M. As of June 30, 2026, the business held $46.4M in cash and short-term investments with total debt of $3.0M.
- Market cap
- $81.3M
- Revenue (TTM)
- $70,000
- P/E
- —
- 1Y return
- -38.3% S&P 500 16.8%
- Avg. target
- $5.50 167.0% vs last close
Bull case
- Covering analysts are unanimously positive with 4 Strong Buy ratings and an average price target of $5.50, implying 167.0% upside from the recent close of $2.06.
- The balance sheet maintains liquidity with $46.4M in cash and short-term investments and net cash of $43.4M as of June 30, 2026.
- Analyst projections model rapid top-line expansion, forecasting 755.6% revenue growth to $1.9M in the next fiscal year.
Bear case
- The company generated only $81,000 in revenue in FY2025 alongside a negative gross margin of -102.5%.
- Cash burn remains elevated, evidenced by negative free cash flow of -$26.3M and a net loss of -$31.9M in FY2025.
- Existing equity holders have experienced dilution, reflected in a 64.3% increase in share count over the trailing 5 years.
What Sera Prognostics does
Founded in 2008 and headquartered in Salt Lake City, Utah, Sera Prognostics, Inc. is a diagnostic company focused on enhancing women's health through the discovery, development, and commercialization of biomarker tests. The company specializes in improving pregnancy outcomes, led by its flagship PreTRM test. This blood-based test predicts the risk of spontaneous preterm birth in asymptomatic singleton pregnancies. In addition to PreTRM, Sera Prognostics is advancing product candidates targeting preeclampsia, molecular time-to-birth assessments, gestational diabetes mellitus, fetal growth restriction, stillbirth prevention, and postpartum depression.
Growth and profitability
Sera Prognostics generated revenue of $82,000 in FY2021, $268,000 in FY2022, and $306,000 in FY2023, before revenue fell 74.8% to $77,000 in FY2024. In FY2025, revenue rose 5.2% to $81,000, reflecting a 5-year revenue CAGR of 26.5% from FY2020 to FY2025. Annual net losses were -$35.0M in FY2021, -$44.2M in FY2022, -$36.2M in FY2023, -$32.9M in FY2024, and -$31.9M in FY2025. Operating margin in FY2025 stood at -45066.7% and gross margin was -102.5%. Over the trailing twelve months ending June 30, 2026, revenue totaled $70,000, while quarterly revenue grew 76.5% year-over-year in the latest quarter.
Balance sheet and cash flow
As of June 30, 2026, Sera Prognostics had $46.4M in cash and short-term investments and $3.0M in total debt, resulting in net cash of $43.4M. Its current ratio was 1.98 and debt-to-equity was 0.05, with total shareholders' equity of $59.4M against total assets of $86.7M. For FY2025, operating cash flow was -$25.6M, free cash flow was -$26.3M, and capital expenditures were $726,000. Over the past 5 years, common shares outstanding increased 64.3%.
Valuation and performance
Sera Prognostics holds a market capitalization of $81.3M and an enterprise value of $38.2M, with a price-to-book ratio of 1.4x and an EV-to-revenue multiple of 545.9x. By comparison, the median of its US-listed Healthcare peers trades at a price-to-sales multiple of 4.1x and an EV-to-EBITDA multiple of 12.0x. As of October 16, 2026, the stock closed at $2.06, representing a 1-year return of -38.3% and a 5-year return of -81.0%, while the S&P 500 gained 16.8% and 83.0% over the same periods.
What analysts expect
Wall Street coverage includes 4 Strong Buy ratings, with 0 Buy, 0 Hold, 0 Sell, and 0 Strong Sell ratings. The consensus mean price target is $5.50, which stands 167.0% above the October 16, 2026 closing price of $2.06. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, analysts expect revenue of $225,000 and EPS of -$0.66. For the following fiscal year, 4 analysts project revenue of $1.9M and EPS of -$0.54. The company has beaten EPS expectations in 2 of the last 4 quarters, and its next earnings date is November 12, 2026.
Key risks and what to watch
- Operating cash flow of -$25.6M in FY2025 represents ongoing cash consumption against total cash reserves of $46.4M as of June 30, 2026.
- Commercialization remains at an early stage, with trailing twelve-month revenue totaling $70,000.
- The company's enterprise value-to-revenue ratio of 545.9x reflects a high multiple relative to current sales.
- Shareholder value has deteriorated significantly over the long term, with the stock delivering a 5-year return of -81.0%.
AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer
About this SERA AI stock analysis
This page is an AI-written research summary of Sera Prognostics, Inc. (SERA). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.
Related: SERA income statement, SERA balance sheet, SERA key metrics, SERA analyst forecast, SERA chart. See the SERA stock overview for the latest quote and news.
SERA AI stock analysis FAQ
What is Sera Prognostics' core product?
The company's lead product is the PreTRM test, a blood-based biomarker test designed to predict the risk of spontaneous preterm birth in asymptomatic singleton pregnancies.
How much cash and debt does Sera Prognostics have?
As of June 30, 2026, Sera Prognostics held $46.4M in cash and short-term investments and $3.0M in total debt, resulting in a net cash position of $43.4M.
What do Wall Street analysts expect for SERA's financial performance?
Analysts project FY2026 revenue of $225,000 with an EPS of -$0.66, followed by FY2027 revenue of $1.9M with an EPS of -$0.54. The consensus price target is $5.50.
When does Sera Prognostics report earnings next?
The company's next scheduled earnings date is November 12, 2026.