Noah Holdings Limited (NOAH) AI Stock Analysis

NYSE: NOAHAI research summary: business, growth, valuation, analysts, bull and bear case.

NOAH AI stock analysis summary

AI Research

Noah Holdings Limited (NOAH) is a Shanghai-headquartered wealth and asset management service provider catering to high net worth individuals and enterprises. The company closed FY2025 with $2.61B in revenue and holds $5.00B in net cash on its balance sheet. While quarterly earnings grew 31.8% year-over-year in the quarter ended June 30, 2026, the stock has declined 26.5% over the past year.

Market cap
$495.6M
Revenue (TTM)
$2.61B
P/E
6.0x
fwd 7.7x
1Y return
-26.5%
S&P 500 16.8%
Avg. target
$10.65
47.5% vs last close

Bull case

  • Noah Holdings maintains a significant liquidity cushion with $5.00B in net cash and total debt of only $51.0M as of June 30, 2026.
  • Quarterly earnings grew 31.8% year-over-year in the period ended June 30, 2026, alongside a trailing twelve-month profit margin of 22.5%.
  • Wall Street analysts hold a mean price target of $10.65, which is 47.5% above the company's last closing price of $7.22.

Bear case

  • Revenue contracted at a 5-year CAGR of -4.6% between FY2020 and FY2025, falling from $4.29B in FY2021 to $2.61B in FY2025.
  • The stock has delivered multi-year share price losses, falling 26.5% over the past year and 67.4% over the past five years.
  • The forward dividend payout ratio stands at 112.2%, indicating that distributions exceed annual net earnings.

What Noah does

Established in 2005 and headquartered in Shanghai, China, Noah Holdings Limited operates as a wealth and asset management service provider for high net worth individuals and enterprises across Mainland China, Hong Kong, and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Wealth Management, Asset Management, and Other Businesses. Wealth Management provides investment products such as publicly-raised and private investment funds, private equity products, and insurance solutions, alongside investor education, trust services, and insurance brokerage. Its Asset Management segment manages investments across private equity, real estate, public securities, and multi-strategy products, while complementary lending services support client capital requirements.

Growth and profitability

Noah Holdings recorded a 5-year revenue CAGR of -4.6% from FY2020 to FY2025. Annual revenue decreased from $4.29B in FY2021 to $3.10B in FY2022, rose to $3.29B in FY2023, fell to $2.60B in FY2024, and stabilized at $2.61B in FY2025 with 0.4% growth. Net margin was 30.6% in FY2021, 31.5% in FY2022, 30.6% in FY2023, 18.3% in FY2024, and 21.4% in FY2025, generating $558.9M in net income and diluted EPS of $3.46. Over the trailing twelve months, revenue reached $2.61B with an operating margin of 34.8%. In the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, revenue fell 1.5% year-over-year, while quarterly earnings increased 31.8%.

NOAH income statement →

Balance sheet and cash flow

As of June 30, 2026, Noah Holdings held $5.05B in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $51.0M, resulting in net cash of $5.00B. Total assets stood at $11.64B and shareholders' equity was $9.33B. The company maintained a current ratio of 3.40 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.01. During FY2025, operating cash flow reached $976.6M and free cash flow was $842.5M. Cash deployment included $134.1M in capital expenditures, $52.3M for share buybacks, and $546.8M paid in dividends.

NOAH balance sheet →

Valuation and performance

At a last close of $7.22, Noah Holdings had a market capitalization of $495.6M and an enterprise value of -$188.0M. The stock traded at a trailing P/E of 6.0x and a forward P/E of 7.7x, compared to medians of 12.1x and 10.8x for its US-listed Financial Services peers. Its price-to-sales was 0.2x versus the peer median of 3.2x, and price-to-book stood at 0.4x. Over the past year, the stock fell 26.5%, while the S&P 500 benchmark gained 16.8%. Over five years, Noah Holdings returned -67.4% versus an 83.0% gain for the index.

NOAH key metrics →

NOAH dividend

Noah Holdings pays an annual dividend with a forward rate of $0.65 per share, representing a dividend yield of 9.07%. The payout ratio was 112.2% of earnings, and the company has paid dividends for 4 consecutive years. Its most recent ex-dividend date occurred on July 9, 2026, following $546.8M in total dividends distributed during FY2025.

NOAH dividend history →

What analysts expect

Wall Street coverage consists of 2 Strong Buy ratings and 2 Hold ratings. The mean price target of $10.65 indicates 47.5% upside compared to the last close of $7.22. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, consensus estimates project revenue of $2.54B and EPS of $9.66, reflecting 11.1% earnings growth. Over the last four quarters, the company topped EPS estimates 3 times. The next scheduled earnings release date is November 24, 2026.

NOAH forecast and price target →

Key risks and what to watch

  • Revenue growth remains pressured, dropping 1.5% year-over-year in the quarter ended June 30, 2026.
  • Analyst estimates forecast FY2027 revenue to decline 0.9% to $2.52B, pointing toward continued top-line stagnation.
  • The company's dividend payout ratio of 112.2% could pose capital allocation trade-offs if earnings decline.

AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer

About this NOAH AI stock analysis

This page is an AI-written research summary of Noah Holdings Limited (NOAH). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

Related: NOAH income statement, NOAH balance sheet, NOAH key metrics, NOAH analyst forecast, NOAH chart. See the NOAH stock overview for the latest quote and news.

NOAH AI stock analysis FAQ

What is Noah Holdings' dividend yield and payout schedule?

Noah Holdings pays an annual dividend with a forward payout of $0.65 per share, yielding 9.07%. Its dividend payout ratio was 112.2%, and its last ex-dividend date was July 9, 2026.

How strong is Noah Holdings' balance sheet?

As of June 30, 2026, the company held $5.05B in cash and short-term investments against $51.0M in total debt, giving it $5.00B in net cash. It maintained a current ratio of 3.40 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.01.

What are analysts forecasting for Noah Holdings' earnings and revenue?

For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, analysts estimate revenue of $2.54B and EPS of $9.66. For the following fiscal year, 4 analysts project revenue of $2.52B and EPS of $9.74.

When does Noah Holdings report its next earnings?

The company is scheduled to report its next financial results on November 24, 2026.

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