MGP Ingredients, Inc. (MGPI) AI Stock Analysis

NASDAQ: MGPIAI research summary: business, growth, valuation, analysts, bull and bear case.

MGPI AI stock analysis summary

AI Research

MGP Ingredients, Inc. (MGPI) produces distilled spirits and specialty wheat and plant-based food ingredients. The company generated $500.0M in trailing twelve-month revenue, though annual revenue contracted 23.8% in FY2025 alongside a net income of -$107.8M. However, free cash flow reached $76.0M in FY2025, and forward P/E stands at 6.8x compared to its 52-week low of $12.42.

Market cap
$323.8M
Revenue (TTM)
$500.0M
P/E
—
fwd 6.8x
1Y return
-36.0%
S&P 500 16.8%
Avg. target
$26.40
74.6% vs last close

Bull case

  • Free cash flow expanded to $76.0M in FY2025 despite revenue pressures, supported by $121.5M in operating cash flow.
  • Wall Street sentiment remains largely constructive, with 4 Strong Buy ratings and a mean price target of $26.40 representing 74.6% upside.
  • The stock trades at a forward P/E of 6.8x and a price-to-book ratio of 0.5x, well below the forward P/E peer median of 14.3x.

Bear case

  • Revenue dropped 23.8% in FY2025 to $536.4M, followed by a further 14.5% year-over-year decline in the quarter ended June 30, 2026.
  • The company posted a net income of -$107.8M in FY2025 alongside a negative operating margin of -17.6%.
  • Total debt stands at $377.8M with cash of just $17.8M, resulting in net debt of $360.0M.

What MGP Ingredients does

Founded in 1941 and headquartered in Atchison, Kansas, MGP Ingredients, Inc. produces and supplies distilled spirits and food ingredients across three segments: Distillery Products, Branded Spirits, and Ingredient Solutions. Distillery Products offers food grade alcohol for bourbon, rye whiskeys, vodka, and gin, as well as industrial alcohol, fuel-grade alcohol, distillers feed, and corn oil. Branded Spirits provides ultra-premium, premium, mid-range, and value branded spirits. Ingredient Solutions specializes in specialty wheat starches under Fibersym, Resistant Starch, and FiberRite RW, along with proteins including Arise, Proterra, and gluten-free textured pea proteins.

Growth and profitability

MGP Ingredients grew annual revenue from $626.7M in FY2021 to a peak of $836.5M in FY2023 before declining 15.9% in FY2024 to $703.6M and dropping 23.8% in FY2025 to $536.4M. Net income shifted from $107.5M in FY2023 to $34.7M in FY2024, followed by a net income of -$107.8M in FY2025 with an operating margin of -17.6%. For the trailing twelve months, revenue stands at $500.0M with an EPS of -$11.26 and a profit margin of -48.4%. In the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue fell 14.5% year-over-year while quarterly earnings declined 17.7%.

MGPI income statement →

Balance sheet and cash flow

As of June 30, 2026, MGP Ingredients held $17.8M in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $377.8M, resulting in net debt of $360.0M. Shareholders equity was $590.8M, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.64 and a current ratio of 6.99. In FY2025, operating cash flow totaled $121.5M and free cash flow reached $76.0M. Capital allocation in FY2025 included $45.5M in capital expenditures, $10.3M in dividends paid, and $1.0M in share buybacks.

MGPI balance sheet →

Valuation and performance

At a last close of $15.12 on October 16, 2026, MGP Ingredients trades at a market capitalization of $323.8M and an enterprise value of $648.9M. Its forward P/E of 6.8x and price-to-sales of 0.6x sit below the median of its US-listed Consumer Defensive peers at 14.3x and 0.7x, respectively. However, its EV-to-EBITDA of 17.5x is above the peer median of 11.7x. Over the past year, the stock fell 36.0% compared to a 16.8% gain for the S&P 500, and its 5-year return of -75.0% trails the index return of 83.0%.

MGPI key metrics →

MGPI dividend

MGP Ingredients pays an annual forward dividend of $0.48 per share, representing a dividend yield of 3.17% with a quarterly payout frequency. The dividend payout ratio stands at 20.4%. The company has maintained 17 consecutive years of payments, though its 5-year annualized dividend growth is 0.0%. Its last ex-dividend date was August 14, 2026.

MGPI dividend history →

What analysts expect

Wall Street coverage consists of 4 Strong Buy ratings and 1 Hold rating, with a mean price target of $26.40, implying 74.6% upside from the last close of $15.12. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, analysts estimate revenue of $484.0M and EPS of $1.65, reflecting an EPS decline of 42.2%. For the next fiscal year, 5 analysts project revenue of $503.1M and EPS of $1.94. The company beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with next earnings scheduled for October 28, 2026.

MGPI forecast and price target →

Key risks and what to watch

  • Operating margin was -17.6% in FY2025 and trailing twelve-month profit margin sits at -48.4%, showing operational volatility.
  • With net debt at $360.0M against a market capitalization of $323.8M, enterprise value is heavily leveraged by debt.
  • Consensus forecasts project FY2026 EPS to contract 42.2% to $1.65, indicating continued near-term earnings headwinds.
  • The stock has dropped 75.0% over five years, significantly lagging the S&P 500 gain of 83.0% over the same timeframe.

AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer

About this MGPI AI stock analysis

This page is an AI-written research summary of MGP Ingredients, Inc. (MGPI). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

Related: MGPI income statement, MGPI balance sheet, MGPI key metrics, MGPI analyst forecast, MGPI chart. See the MGPI stock overview for the latest quote and news.

MGPI AI stock analysis FAQ

Does MGP Ingredients pay a dividend?

Yes, MGP Ingredients pays a forward annual dividend of $0.48 per share, which equates to a 3.17% dividend yield. The company has paid dividends for 17 consecutive years, and the payout ratio is 20.4%.

What is MGP Ingredients' debt level?

As of June 30, 2026, MGP Ingredients held $377.8M in total debt and $17.8M in cash and short-term investments, resulting in net debt of $360.0M. Its debt-to-equity ratio was 0.64 and its current ratio was 6.99.

What are analysts forecasting for MGPI?

Analysts project FY2026 revenue of $484.0M and EPS of $1.65, followed by FY2027 revenue of $503.1M and EPS of $1.94. The consensus mean price target is $26.40, which represents 74.6% upside from the October 16, 2026 closing price of $15.12.

How did MGP Ingredients perform in FY2025?

In FY2025, revenue fell 23.8% to $536.4M and net income declined to -$107.8M. Operating cash flow reached $121.5M, supporting free cash flow of $76.0M.

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