MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI) AI Stock Analysis
MELI AI stock analysis summary
AI ResearchMercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI) operates online commerce and financial technology platforms across Latin America. Revenue reached $28.89B in FY2025, supported by a 5-year revenue CAGR of 48.7%. However, quarterly earnings declined 10.9% year-over-year in the quarter ended June 30, 2026, and net debt stood at $7.45B.
- Market cap
- $92.98B
- Revenue (TTM)
- $35.18B
- P/E
- 50.5x fwd 32.8x
- 1Y return
- -10.2% S&P 500 16.8%
- Avg. target
- $2270.01 23.8% vs last close
Bull case
- Annual revenue reached $28.89B in FY2025, backed by a 5-year revenue CAGR of 48.7%.
- Free cash flow generation reached $10.77B in FY2025, rising from $7.06B in FY2024.
- The analyst mean price target of $2270.01 implies 23.8% upside from the recent close of $1834.00.
Bear case
- Trailing operating margin of 6.7% is well below the peer median of 16.9% for its Nasdaq-100 Consumer Cyclical peers.
- Quarterly earnings fell 10.9% year-over-year in the period ended June 30, 2026.
- Total debt of $13.18B exceeds cash and short-term investments of $5.73B, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.68.
What MercadoLibre does
MercadoLibre, Inc. operates an online commerce and financial technology ecosystem across Latin America. Its core marketplace connects businesses, merchants, and individuals for buying and selling merchandise online. The company supports transactions through Mercado Pago, a digital payments solution facilitating money transfers across mobile apps and websites. Its financial offerings include Mercado Fondo for investment services and Mercado Credito, which extends loans to merchants and consumers. For fulfillment, Mercado Envios coordinates shipping with third-party logistics carriers. In addition, the company provides Mercado Libre Classifieds for vehicles and real estate, Mercado Libre Ads for advertising, and Mercado Shops for digital storefronts.
Growth and profitability
MercadoLibre expanded annual revenue from $7.07B in FY2021 to $10.78B in FY2022, $15.11B in FY2023, $20.78B in FY2024, and $28.89B in FY2025. Annual revenue growth was 39.1% in FY2025, following 37.5% in FY2024. Operating margin shifted from 6.2% in FY2021 to a peak of 14.6% in FY2023, before settling at 12.7% in FY2024 and 11.1% in FY2025. Net income increased from $83.0M in FY2021 to $2.00B in FY2025. For the trailing twelve months, revenue reached $35.18B with an operating margin of 6.7%. In the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, revenue increased 49.8% year-over-year, while earnings fell 10.9%.
Balance sheet and cash flow
As of June 30, 2026, MercadoLibre held $5.73B in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $13.18B, resulting in net debt of $7.45B. Shareholders' equity was $7.83B, bringing the debt-to-equity ratio to 1.68, alongside a current ratio of 1.12. Operating cash flow reached $12.12B in FY2025, generating free cash flow of $10.77B after capital expenditures of $1.34B. Share buybacks totaled $1.0M in FY2025, and the share count grew 1.8% over 5 years.
Valuation and performance
MercadoLibre trades at a trailing P/E of 50.5x and a forward P/E of 32.8x, compared to 34.1x and 26.0x for the median of its Nasdaq-100 Consumer Cyclical peers. Its EV to EBITDA ratio is 26.4x, above the peer median of 19.2x, while its price-to-sales of 2.6x sits below the peer median of 4.1x. Over the past 1 year, the stock returned -10.2%, trailing the SPY return of 16.8%. Over 5 years, the shares rose 17.3%, compared to an 83.0% return for SPY.
What analysts expect
Wall Street coverage includes 16 Strong Buy, 4 Buy, and 6 Hold recommendations, with 0 Sell ratings. The mean price target is $2270.01, representing a 23.8% premium over the last close of $1834.00 on October 16, 2026. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, analysts estimate revenue of $41.86B and EPS of $38.35. For the following year, 22 analysts model revenue of $54.13B and EPS of $55.70. MercadoLibre exceeded EPS projections in 1 of the past 4 quarters, with the next earnings release set for November 4, 2026.
Key risks and what to watch
- Earnings contracted 10.9% year-over-year in the latest quarter despite 49.8% revenue growth.
- Net debt stood at $7.45B as of June 30, 2026, which may elevate financial sensitivity if cash flow slows.
- The trailing P/E of 50.5x carries a valuation premium over the Nasdaq-100 Consumer Cyclical peer median of 34.1x.
- The company beat analyst EPS estimates in only 1 of the last 4 quarters.
AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer
About this MELI AI stock analysis
This page is an AI-written research summary of MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.
Related: MELI income statement, MELI balance sheet, MELI key metrics, MELI analyst forecast, MELI chart. See the MELI stock overview for the latest quote and news.
MELI AI stock analysis FAQ
What is MercadoLibre's ticker and exchange?
MercadoLibre trades under the ticker symbol MELI on the NASDAQ.
Does MercadoLibre pay a dividend?
MercadoLibre does not report a dividend payout.
What are MercadoLibre's consensus earnings estimates?
For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, consensus estimates project EPS of $38.35 on revenue of $41.86B. For the subsequent fiscal year, estimates project EPS of $55.70 on revenue of $54.13B.
When is MercadoLibre's next earnings report date?
MercadoLibre is scheduled to report earnings on November 4, 2026.