MediaAlpha Inc. (MAX) AI Stock Analysis

NYSE: MAXAI research summary: business, growth, valuation, analysts, bull and bear case.

MAX AI stock analysis summary

AI Research

MediaAlpha Inc. operates a digital customer acquisition platform for insurance providers across property and casualty, health, and life verticals. The company generated $1.22B in trailing twelve-month revenue with a profit margin of 7.9% as of June 30, 2026. The stock trades at a trailing price-to-earnings multiple of 7.1x, compared to a median of 16.2x for its industry peer group.

Market cap
$609.2M
Revenue (TTM)
$1.22B
P/E
7.1x
fwd 5.6x
1Y return
8.4%
S&P 500 16.8%
Avg. target
$14.50
26.1% vs last close

Bull case

  • Revenue expanded 28.8% in FY2025 to $1.11B, supported by 25.9% year-over-year revenue growth in the quarter ended June 30, 2026.
  • Free cash flow reached $65.3M in FY2025, up from $45.6M in FY2024 and $20.2M in FY2023.
  • The stock trades at a forward P/E of 5.6x, below the median of 14.1x for US-listed Communication Services peers.

Bear case

  • Balance sheet debt stood at $176.7M against $23.7M in cash as of June 30, 2026, resulting in a high debt-to-equity ratio of 6.22.
  • Consensus estimates project full-year EPS to decline 57.3% to $1.51 for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026.
  • The stock has lagged broader benchmarks long-term, falling 40.5% over the past 5 years while the S&P 500 advanced 83.0%.

What MediaAlpha does

MediaAlpha, Inc. operates an insurance customer acquisition platform within the United States. Through its subsidiaries, the company specializes in optimizing customer acquisition across property and casualty insurance, health insurance, and life insurance verticals. Founded in 2014 and based in Los Angeles, California, the company utilizes technology and data analytics to connect insurance providers with prospective customers. Its platform focuses on transparency, performance, and return on investment for insurance clients, supporting digital customer acquisition and marketing strategies.

Growth and profitability

MediaAlpha experienced sharp revenue fluctuations before regaining momentum, with revenue dropping 28.9% in FY2022 to $459.1M and falling 15.4% in FY2023 to $388.1M. Growth rebounded strongly in FY2024, expanding 122.8% to $864.7M, followed by 28.8% growth in FY2025 to reach $1.11B. Operating margin improved from -10.3% in FY2023 to 4.9% in FY2024 and 7.0% in FY2025. Net income reached $25.6M in FY2025, generating diluted EPS of $3.77. Over the five years from FY2020 to FY2025, revenue grew at a compound annual rate of 13.7%. In the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, revenue increased 25.9% year-over-year, while quarterly earnings grew 1412.2%.

MAX income statement →

Balance sheet and cash flow

As of June 30, 2026, MediaAlpha held $23.7M in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $176.7M, resulting in net debt of $153.0M. The company had a current ratio of 1.29 and shareholders' equity of $28.4M, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 6.22. During FY2025, the business generated $65.6M in operating cash flow and $65.3M in free cash flow, while spending $340,000 on capital expenditures. Cash deployment in FY2025 included $47.3M for share buybacks and $1.2M in dividends paid.

MAX balance sheet →

Valuation and performance

MediaAlpha carries a market cap of $609.2M and an enterprise value of $728.3M. The stock trades at a trailing P/E of 7.1x and a forward P/E of 5.6x, below the median of its US-listed Communication Services peers at 16.2x and 14.1x, respectively. Its price-to-sales multiple of 0.5x is lower than the peer median of 0.8x, though its EV-to-EBITDA stands at 349.8x versus the peer median of 10.0x. Over the past year, MAX shares gained 8.4%, trailing the 16.8% return of the S&P 500 (SPY). Over five years, the stock is down 40.5% compared to an 83.0% gain for the index.

MAX key metrics →

What analysts expect

Wall Street coverage on MediaAlpha consists of 3 Strong Buy, 2 Buy, and 3 Hold recommendations. The mean price target is $14.50, representing an upside of 26.1% relative to the October 16, 2026 closing price of $11.50. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, consensus estimates anticipate revenue of $1.32B and EPS of $1.51, representing an estimated earnings decline of 57.3%. For the next fiscal year, analysts forecast revenue to rise 8.1% to $1.43B and EPS to grow 11.3% to $1.68. The company exceeded EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, and its next earnings date is October 28, 2026.

MAX forecast and price target →

Key risks and what to watch

  • A net debt load of $153.0M on a low equity base of $28.4M leaves the company sensitive to financial obligations.
  • Short interest represents 9.4% of the float, reflecting significant bearish sentiment in the market.
  • The company's EV-to-EBITDA ratio of 349.8x stands substantially above the peer median of 10.0x.

AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer

About this MAX AI stock analysis

This page is an AI-written research summary of MediaAlpha Inc. (MAX). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

Related: MAX income statement, MAX balance sheet, MAX key metrics, MAX analyst forecast, MAX chart. See the MAX stock overview for the latest quote and news.

MAX AI stock analysis FAQ

What was MediaAlpha's revenue in the most recent fiscal year?

MediaAlpha reported revenue of $1.11B for FY2025, an increase of 28.8% compared to $864.7M in FY2024.

Does MediaAlpha have a high debt load?

As of June 30, 2026, the company carried $176.7M in total debt and $23.7M in cash, resulting in a net debt balance of $153.0M and a debt-to-equity ratio of 6.22.

What are analysts forecasting for MediaAlpha's next earnings report and full-year earnings?

Analysts project full-year EPS of $1.51 on revenue of $1.32B for FY2026, with the next quarterly earnings scheduled for October 28, 2026.

What is the consensus analyst price target for MAX stock?

The mean analyst price target is $14.50, which is 26.1% above the stock's closing price of $11.50 on October 16, 2026.

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