GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL) AI Stock Analysis

GFL Environmental Inc. provides diversified environmental solutions across Canada and the United States. Its solid waste management division covers the collection, transportation, transfer, recycling, and safe disposal of non-hazardous solid waste for municipal, residential, commercial, and industrial customers. The infrastructure and soil remediation division focuses on remediation of contaminated soils, civil engineering, excavation, demolition, and shoring services to support construction and environmental compliance. Its liquid waste management business manages the collection, transportation, processing, and disposal of industrial and commercial liquid waste, while reselling liquid waste products for resource recovery.

Between FY2020 and FY2025, GFL achieved a 5-year revenue CAGR of 9.5%. Revenue expanded from $5.14B in FY2021 to $7.52B in FY2023, declined 18.3% in FY2024 to $6.14B, and rebounded 7.8% to $6.62B in FY2025. Gross margin widened steadily from 9.2% in FY2021 to 20.7% in FY2025, while operating margin rose from -2.0% to 5.2%. Net income fluctuated widely, moving from -$722.7M in FY2024 to $3.83B in FY2025. For the trailing twelve months ended June 30, 2026, revenue stood at $6.97B with an operating margin of 6.9% and a net profit margin of -2.9%. In the latest quarter, revenue grew 16.3% year-over-year while earnings rose 22.2%.

As of June 30, 2026, GFL held $192.2M in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $10.15B, resulting in net debt of $9.95B. Shareholders' equity was $7.36B, bringing the debt-to-equity ratio to 1.38, while total assets stood at $21.54B and the current ratio was 0.75. In FY2025, the company generated $1.32B in operating cash flow and $174.6M in free cash flow. Capital allocation in FY2025 included capital expenditures of $1.14B, share buybacks of $2.97B, and dividends paid of $31.1M.

At a market cap of $15.83B and an enterprise value of $25.34B, GFL trades at a forward P/E of 37.5x, above the median of its US-listed Industrials peers of 17.2x. Its price-to-sales multiple of 2.3x and EV-to-EBITDA of 21.6x also sit above peer medians of 1.5x and 13.9x, respectively. The stock has underperformed broader equities over multiple horizons. Over the past year, GFL generated a return of -1.4% compared to 16.8% for the S&P 500 (SPY). Over a 5-year period, the stock gained 13.0%, trailing the 83.0% return achieved by the S&P 500.

GFL pays a quarterly dividend with an annualized forward rate of $0.07 per share, yielding 0.15%. The company maintains a payout ratio of 9.5% and has paid dividends for 7 consecutive years. Its dividend has grown at a 5-year annualized rate of 14.6%, with the most recent ex-dividend date occurring on October 14, 2026.

Wall Street sentiment leans favorable, with 10 Strong Buy, 6 Buy, 3 Hold, and 2 Sell ratings. The mean price target of $50.97 represents a 16.2% premium to the last closing price of $43.85. For FY2026, consensus estimates project EPS of $0.85 on revenue of $8.05B. For FY2027, 13 analysts project EPS to increase 55.1% to $1.32 on revenue of $9.81B. GFL has beaten earnings estimates in 1 of the last 4 quarters, with its next earnings report scheduled for October 28, 2026.

This page is an AI-written research summary of GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

Related: GFL income statement, GFL balance sheet, GFL key metrics, GFL analyst forecast, GFL chart. See the GFL stock overview for the latest quote and news.