Dow Inc. (DOW) AI Stock Analysis

NYSE: DOWAI research summary: business, growth, valuation, analysts, bull and bear case.

DOW AI stock analysis summary

AI Research

Dow Inc. is a global materials science company providing plastics, chemicals, and coatings across diverse markets. Revenue has contracted from $56.90B in FY2022 to $39.97B in FY2025, culminating in a net loss of -$2.62B in FY2025. However, the business demonstrated signs of a top-line rebound in the quarter ended June 30, 2026, with quarterly revenue growing 19.7% year-over-year.

Market cap
$21.62B
Revenue (TTM)
$41.32B
P/E
—
fwd 14.1x
1Y return
43.4%
S&P 500 16.8%
Avg. target
$33.29
11.2% vs last close

Bull case

  • Quarterly revenue grew 19.7% year-over-year in the period ended June 30, 2026, signaling top-line recovery.
  • The stock delivers an annual dividend yield of 4.68% based on a forward payout of $1.40 per share.
  • Dow beats earnings expectations consistently, having topped EPS consensus estimates in all 4 of the last quarters.

Bear case

  • Full-year FY2025 results produced negative free cash flow of -$1.45B and a net loss of -$2.62B.
  • Total debt reached $20.86B as of June 30, 2026, leaving net debt at $16.89B.
  • Analysts project next fiscal year EPS to contract by 28.8% to $1.72 on a 2.2% decline in revenue.

What Dow does

Dow Inc., along with its subsidiaries, specializes in providing advanced materials science solutions across a wide spectrum of industries globally. The company operates through three primary segments: Packaging & Specialty Plastics, Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure, and Performance Materials & Coatings. Packaging & Specialty Plastics provides ethylene, propylene, and polymers such as polyethylene and ethylene vinyl acetate for packaging, mobility, consumer goods, and wire and cable applications. Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure manufactures ethylene oxides, polyurethane systems, and caustic soda. Performance Materials & Coatings produces architectural and industrial coatings used in protective, wood, and metal finishes. The company also engages in insurance and reinsurance activities.

Growth and profitability

Dow's financial performance showed steady declines following peak revenue of $56.90B in FY2022. By FY2025, annual revenue fell 7.0% to $39.97B, while net income declined to -$2.62B from $1.12B in FY2024. Over this period, gross margin compressed from 18.9% in FY2021 to 6.0% in FY2025, and operating margin dropped to 0.7%. For the trailing twelve months, revenue reached $41.32B with an operating margin of 11.6% and a net profit margin of -3.1%. In the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue increased 19.7% year-over-year, while quarterly earnings declined 73.3%.

DOW income statement →

Balance sheet and cash flow

As of June 30, 2026, Dow held $3.97B in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $20.86B, resulting in net debt of $16.89B. The company maintained a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.85 and a current ratio of 11.07. In FY2025, cash generation softened as operating cash flow declined to $1.03B, which led to free cash flow of -$1.45B after capital expenditures of $2.48B. During FY2025, Dow also allocated $1.49B toward dividend payments and raised $85.0M via share issuance.

DOW balance sheet →

Valuation and performance

Dow trades at a forward P/E of 14.1x and an EV-to-EBITDA of 13.7x, compared with the median of its S&P 500 Basic Materials peers at 14.7x forward P/E and 14.9x EV-to-EBITDA. The stock's price-to-sales ratio stands at 0.5x, below the peer group median of 2.5x. Dow's share price gained 43.4% over the past 12 months, outperforming the S&P 500 return of 16.8%. Over a 5-year timeframe, Dow shares declined 33.2%, trailing the S&P 500 return of 83.0%.

DOW key metrics →

DOW dividend

Dow pays an annual forward dividend of $1.40 per share, distributed quarterly, yielding 4.68% as of October 16, 2026. The company has paid dividends for 8 consecutive years. Its dividend has contracted at an annualized rate of 5.6% over the last 5 years. In FY2025, dividend payments totaled $1.49B.

DOW dividend history →

What analysts expect

Wall Street analysts cover Dow with 4 Strong Buy, 1 Buy, 13 Hold, and 2 Sell ratings. The average 12-month price target is $33.29, representing an upside of 11.2% from the closing price of $29.93. The consensus EPS estimate for the current fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, is $2.42, with expected revenue of $43.69B. Dow beat analyst EPS estimates in each of the last 4 quarters, with next earnings scheduled for October 22, 2026.

DOW forecast and price target →

Key risks and what to watch

  • The 5-year annualized dividend growth stands at -5.6%, highlighting potential risk to future distributions.
  • Gross margins narrowed severely from 18.9% in FY2021 to 6.0% in FY2025, exposing sensitivity to industry cost cycles.
  • Trailing twelve-month net profit margin remained negative at -3.1%, paired with an EPS of -$1.84.

AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer

About this DOW AI stock analysis

This page is an AI-written research summary of Dow Inc. (DOW). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

Related: DOW income statement, DOW balance sheet, DOW key metrics, DOW analyst forecast, DOW chart. See the DOW stock overview for the latest quote and news.

DOW AI stock analysis FAQ

What is Dow's current dividend yield?

Dow offers a forward dividend yield of 4.68%, representing an annualized payout of $1.40 per share paid quarterly.

How did Dow perform in its most recent fiscal year?

In FY2025, Dow generated $39.97B in revenue, which was down 7.0% year-over-year, and recorded a net loss of -$2.62B.

What is the consensus analyst target price for Dow stock?

The mean analyst price target is $33.29, which is 11.2% above the last closing price of $29.93.

How much debt does Dow have?

As of June 30, 2026, Dow held $20.86B in total debt and $3.97B in cash and short-term investments, resulting in net debt of $16.89B.

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