ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) AI Stock Analysis

NASDAQ: ASMLAI research summary: business, growth, valuation, analysts, bull and bear case.

ASML AI stock analysis summary

AI Research

ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) provides advanced semiconductor lithography, metrology, and inspection systems. In FY2025, revenue increased 15.6% to $32.67B with net income of $9.61B. Over the trailing twelve months, revenue totaled $39.47B with an operating margin of 44.4%.

Market cap
$632.67B
Revenue (TTM)
$39.47B
P/E
40.4x
fwd 28.9x
1Y return
62.1%
S&P 500 16.8%
Avg. target
$2155.32
31.3% vs last close

Bull case

  • Quarterly revenue grew 55.2% year-over-year in the latest quarter ended September 30, 2026, while quarterly earnings increased 135.9%.
  • ASML generated $11.08B in free cash flow in FY2025 and held $10.77B in net cash as of September 30, 2026.
  • Wall Street analysts assign 31 Strong Buy ratings with a mean price target of $2155.32, indicating 31.3% potential upside from the last close.

Bear case

  • ASML trades at an EV to EBITDA multiple of 49.1x, above the median of its Nasdaq-100 Technology peers of 30.6x.
  • Revenue growth moderated to 2.6% in FY2024 after reaching 30.2% in FY2023.
  • A beta of 1.30 reflects higher price volatility than the broader equity market.

What ASML does

ASML Holding N.V. specializes in the development, production, marketing, sales, and servicing of advanced lithography, metrology, and inspection systems for memory and logic chipmakers. Its portfolio includes extreme ultraviolet (EUV) and deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography solutions, covering immersion and dry technologies. The company also delivers YieldStar optical metrology tools for pattern quality assessment, HMI e-beam solutions for locating chip defects, computational lithography tools, and lithography process control software. Additionally, ASML refurbishes and upgrades older lithography systems. Founded in 1984 and headquartered in Veldhoven, the Netherlands, ASML operates globally across Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, China, Europe, and the United States.

Growth and profitability

ASML expanded revenue from $18.61B in FY2021 to $21.17B in FY2022, $27.56B in FY2023, $28.26B in FY2024, and $32.67B in FY2025, generating a 5-year revenue CAGR of 18.5% from FY2020 to FY2025. Gross margin moved from 51.9% in FY2021 to 52.8% in FY2025, while operating margin reached 34.6% in FY2025. Net income was $9.61B in FY2025 with EPS of $24.73, while R&D expense was $4.70B. In the latest quarter ended September 30, 2026, quarterly revenue grew 55.2% year-over-year and quarterly earnings grew 135.9% year-over-year.

ASML income statement →

Balance sheet and cash flow

As of September 30, 2026, ASML held $12.74B in cash and short-term investments and $1.96B in total debt, leaving net cash of $10.77B. Shareholders' equity was $22.06B, supported by a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.09 and a current ratio of 1.49. In FY2025, operating cash flow reached $12.66B and free cash flow was $11.08B. Cash deployment included capital expenditures of $1.57B, share buybacks of $5.95B, and dividends paid of $2.55B, alongside a 5-year share count change of -5.3%.

ASML balance sheet →

Valuation and performance

At a last close of $1641.52 on October 16, 2026, ASML had a market cap of $632.67B and an enterprise value of $660.08B. Its trailing P/E of 40.4x is below the median of its Nasdaq-100 Technology peers of 43.3x, while its forward P/E of 28.9x sits above the peer median of 25.1x. Its EV to EBITDA ratio is 49.1x compared to the peer median of 30.6x. ASML delivered a 1-year return of 62.1% and a 5-year return of 118.0%, exceeding the SPY return of 16.8% over 1 year and 83.0% over 5 years.

ASML key metrics →

ASML dividend

ASML pays an annual forward dividend of $9.08, corresponding to a dividend yield of 0.55% and a payout ratio of 20.6%. The company has paid dividends for 20 consecutive years, achieving an annualized 5-year dividend growth rate of 20.9%. Its last ex-dividend date was October 27, 2026.

ASML dividend history →

What analysts expect

Analyst ratings include 31 Strong Buy, 7 Buy, 2 Hold, 0 Sell, and 1 Strong Sell. The mean price target is $2155.32, which is 31.3% above the last close. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, consensus estimates project revenue of $44.47B and EPS of $41.21, representing EPS growth of 66.8%. For the next fiscal year, 27 analysts estimate revenue of $57.21B and EPS of $55.93. The company achieved 3 EPS beats over the last 4 quarters.

ASML forecast and price target →

Key risks and what to watch

  • Free cash flow showed previous volatility, declining from $7.20B in FY2022 to $3.25B in FY2023 before rebounding.
  • The stock trades 4.3% above its 200-day average following a 54.2% year-to-date return.
  • Achieving the estimated FY2026 revenue of $44.47B requires a notable acceleration from the $32.67B reported in FY2025.

AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer

About this ASML AI stock analysis

This page is an AI-written research summary of ASML Holding N.V. (ASML). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

Related: ASML income statement, ASML balance sheet, ASML key metrics, ASML analyst forecast, ASML chart. See the ASML stock overview for the latest quote and news.

ASML AI stock analysis FAQ

What is ASML's forward P/E ratio?

ASML trades at a forward P/E of 28.9x, compared to its trailing P/E of 40.4x.

Does ASML pay a dividend?

Yes, ASML pays an annual forward dividend of $9.08 per share, representing a yield of 0.55% and a payout ratio of 20.6%. It has paid dividends for 20 consecutive years.

What is ASML's cash and debt position?

As of September 30, 2026, ASML held $12.74B in cash and short-term investments against $1.96B in total debt, giving it net cash of $10.77B.

What is the consensus price target for ASML?

The mean analyst price target is $2155.32, which stands 31.3% above the last close of $1641.52. Ratings comprise 31 Strong Buy, 7 Buy, 2 Hold, 0 Sell, and 1 Strong Sell.

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