A. O. Smith Corporation (AOS) AI Stock Analysis
AOS AI stock analysis summary
AI ResearchA. O. Smith Corporation is an S&P 500 manufacturer of residential and commercial water heating systems and water treatment products. The company generated $3.80B in trailing twelve months revenue with an operating margin of 18.9%. Shares have declined 12.7% over the past year, trading at a forward P/E of 13.8x with a dividend yield of 2.57%.
- Market cap
- $8.05B
- Revenue (TTM)
- $3.80B
- P/E
- 16.5x fwd 13.8x
- 1Y return
- -12.7% S&P 500 16.8%
- Avg. target
- $69.09 16.7% vs last close
Bull case
- A. O. Smith maintains an operating margin of 18.9% over the trailing twelve months, exceeding the 17.3% median of its S&P 500 Industrials peers.
- The company generates strong cash conversion, producing $546.0M in free cash flow in FY2025 while returning $400.8M to shareholders through share buybacks.
- A conservative capital structure is reflected in a net debt of $495.4M and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.37 as of June 30, 2026.
Bear case
- Quarterly performance softened as revenue dropped 0.7% and quarterly earnings dropped 15.0% year-over-year in the quarter ended June 30, 2026.
- The stock has lagged the broader market with a 1-year return of -12.7% versus 16.8% for the S&P 500, and a 5-year return of -1.0% versus 83.0% for the index.
- Short interest represents 12.2% of the float, pointing to elevated skepticism in the market.
What A. O. Smith does
A. O. Smith Corporation manufactures and markets residential and commercial water heating systems, boilers, tanks, and water treatment solutions. Founded in 1874 and based in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, the business operates through two segments: North America and Rest of World. Its product catalog features gas, heat pump, and electric water heaters, commercial boilers, pool heaters, solar water heating systems, and water softeners. The company distributes products under brands including A. O. Smith, State, Lochinvar, and Aquasana. Sales are conducted via independent wholesale plumbing distributors, retail hardware and home center chains, and direct-to-consumer e-commerce platforms.
Growth and profitability
A. O. Smith posted a 5-year revenue compound annual growth rate of 5.8% from FY2020 to FY2025. Annual revenue grew from $3.54B in FY2021 to $3.85B in FY2023, before settling at $3.82B in FY2024 and $3.83B in FY2025. Net income was $546.2M in FY2025, with a net margin of 14.3% and diluted EPS of $3.86. Operating margin reached 19.0% in FY2025, up from 17.2% in FY2021. For the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue growth fell 0.7% year-over-year while quarterly earnings declined 15.0% year-over-year. Over the trailing twelve months, revenue totaled $3.80B with a profit margin of 13.2%.
Balance sheet and cash flow
As of June 30, 2026, A. O. Smith held $181.3M in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $676.7M, resulting in net debt of $495.4M. Shareholders' equity was $1.84B alongside total assets of $3.64B, yielding a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.37 and a current ratio of 1.59. In FY2025, operating cash flow stood at $616.8M, supporting capital expenditures of $70.8M and free cash flow of $546.0M. The company directed $400.8M toward share buybacks and paid $195.7M in dividends in FY2025, reducing its share count by 13.5% over 5 years.
Valuation and performance
At a share price of $59.22 and a market capitalization of $8.05B, A. O. Smith trades at a trailing P/E of 16.5x and a forward P/E of 13.8x. These multiples sit below the median of its S&P 500 Industrials peers, which post a trailing P/E of 28.5x and forward P/E of 20.7x. The company's enterprise value of $8.34B represents an EV/EBITDA multiple of 11.0x, compared to 17.7x for peer medians. Over the past year, AOS returned -12.7% compared to a 16.8% return for the S&P 500 (SPY), while its 5-year return of -1.0% lagged the index's 83.0% gain.
AOS dividend
A. O. Smith pays a quarterly dividend with an annualized forward rate of $1.52 per share, offering a dividend yield of 2.57%. The payout ratio stands at 39.2%, and dividends have been paid for 42 consecutive years. The company achieved a 5-year annualized dividend growth rate of 7.1%, with its last ex-dividend date on October 30, 2026.
What analysts expect
Wall Street coverage includes 4 Strong Buy, 1 Buy, 6 Hold, 1 Sell, and 1 Strong Sell recommendations. The mean price target is $69.09, representing an implied upside of 16.7% from the last close of $59.22. Consensus estimates project FY2026 EPS of $3.73 on revenue of $3.89B, followed by FY2027 EPS of $4.06 on revenue of $4.04B. A. O. Smith beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters and is scheduled to report earnings on October 29, 2026.
Key risks and what to watch
- Annual revenue growth has flattened, registering -0.9% in FY2024 and 0.3% in FY2025.
- Earnings for the current fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, are projected to decrease by 3.0% to an EPS of $3.73.
- A beta of 1.11 and a position 6.5% below its 200-day average highlight ongoing price volatility and downward technical pressure.
AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer
About this AOS AI stock analysis
This page is an AI-written research summary of A. O. Smith Corporation (AOS). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.
Related: AOS income statement, AOS balance sheet, AOS key metrics, AOS analyst forecast, AOS chart. See the AOS stock overview for the latest quote and news.
AOS AI stock analysis FAQ
What is A. O. Smith's current dividend yield and payout ratio?
A. O. Smith offers a forward dividend yield of 2.57% based on an annual payout of $1.52 per share. The payout ratio is 39.2%, and the company has paid dividends for 42 consecutive years.
How does A. O. Smith's valuation compare to its peer group?
A. O. Smith trades at a trailing P/E of 16.5x and forward P/E of 13.8x, both below the median of its S&P 500 Industrials peers of 28.5x and 20.7x, respectively. Its EV/EBITDA multiple is 11.0x versus the peer median of 17.7x.
What are analysts forecasting for A. O. Smith's upcoming earnings?
Analysts estimate current fiscal year EPS of $3.73 on $3.89B in revenue, followed by next fiscal year EPS of $4.06 on $4.04B in revenue. The mean price target is $69.09, which is 16.7% above the last closing price of $59.22.
What is A. O. Smith's debt level?
As of June 30, 2026, A. O. Smith held $181.3M in cash and short-term investments and $676.7M in total debt, resulting in net debt of $495.4M and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.37.