Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI) AI Stock Analysis

NYSE: AESIAI research summary: business, growth, valuation, analysts, bull and bear case.

AESI AI stock analysis summary

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Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. produces and distributes proppants and provides logistics services in the Permian Basin. While revenue reached $1.10B in FY2025 with a 5-year CAGR of 57.8%, the company reported a net margin of -4.6% and net debt of $798.5M as of June 30, 2026. The stock closed at $9.84 on October 16, 2026, trading 27.0% below its 200-day average.

Market cap
$1.23B
Revenue (TTM)
$1.07B
P/E
—
fwd 44.2x
1Y return
-4.0%
S&P 500 16.8%
Avg. target
$17.69
79.8% vs last close

Bull case

  • Atlas Energy Solutions delivered a 5-year revenue CAGR of 57.8% from FY2020 to FY2025, with revenue climbing to $1.10B.
  • The mean analyst price target of $17.69 implies a potential upside of 79.8% above the October 16, 2026 closing price of $9.84.
  • Insiders hold 34.3% of the company's equity, aligning leadership closely with common shareholders.

Bear case

  • The company reported net income of -$50.3M in FY2025, down from $217.0M in FY2022, as gross margin contracted to 13.8%.
  • Atlas Energy Solutions generated negative free cash flow of -$30.9M in FY2025 and carried net debt of $798.5M as of June 30, 2026.
  • The company recorded 0 EPS beats over the last 4 quarters, while short interest represents 26.5% of float.

What Atlas Energy Solutions does

Atlas Energy Solutions Inc., based in Austin, Texas, produces, processes, and distributes mesh and sand used as proppants during well completions in the Permian Basin across Texas and New Mexico. Founded in 2017, the company also delivers transportation and logistics solutions, storage facilities, and contract labor services. These offerings support oil and natural gas exploration and production companies as well as oilfield services providers across the energy industry supply chain.

Growth and profitability

Revenue grew from $172.4M in FY2021 to $482.7M in FY2022, $614.0M in FY2023, and $1.06B in FY2024, reaching $1.10B in FY2025. This reflects a 5-year revenue CAGR of 57.8% from FY2020 to FY2025, though annual revenue growth slowed to 3.7% in FY2025. Gross margin declined from 53.1% in FY2022 to 13.8% in FY2025, while operating margin fell from 48.1% to -1.5%. Net income dropped from $217.0M in FY2022 to -$50.3M in FY2025. For the trailing twelve months ended June 30, 2026, revenue stood at $1.07B with a net margin of -11.1%, as latest quarterly earnings fell 96.2% year-over-year.

AESI income statement →

Balance sheet and cash flow

As of June 30, 2026, Atlas Energy Solutions held $168.2M in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $966.7M, resulting in net debt of $798.5M. Total assets were $2.56B and shareholders' equity was $1.11B, yielding a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.87 and a current ratio of 1.82. Operating cash flow in FY2025 was $117.3M, while capital expenditures reached $148.3M, leaving free cash flow at -$30.9M. In FY2025, the company also spent $92.3M on dividends and $200,000 on share buybacks.

AESI balance sheet →

Valuation and performance

Atlas Energy Solutions trades at a forward P/E of 44.2x, above the 12.7x median of its US-listed Energy peers. Its EV to EBITDA stands at 20.9x compared to the peer median of 8.0x, while its price-to-sales ratio of 1.2x sits below the peer median of 1.8x. Over the past year, AESI shares returned -4.0%, lagging the S&P 500 (SPY) return of 16.8%. The stock closed at $9.84 on October 16, 2026, positioned between its 52-week low of $7.64 and 52-week high of $20.13.

AESI key metrics →

What analysts expect

Wall Street analysts cover AESI with 4 Strong Buy, 3 Buy, 5 Hold, 0 Sell, and 1 Strong Sell ratings. The mean price target is $17.69, representing 79.8% upside compared to the last close of $9.84. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, analysts estimate an EPS of -$0.83 on revenue of $1.11B. For the next fiscal year, 3 analysts project revenue of $1.31B and EPS of $0.01. Over the last 4 quarters, the company recorded 0 EPS beats, with its next earnings date scheduled for November 2, 2026.

AESI forecast and price target →

Key risks and what to watch

  • A high debt burden of $966.7M against cash of $168.2M leaves the company vulnerable to liquidity constraints during cash burn.
  • Operating margins turned negative to -1.5% in FY2025 and -6.8% over the trailing twelve months, reflecting deteriorating operational efficiency.
  • High short interest of 26.5% of float indicates substantial market skepticism regarding business performance.
  • Revenue growth slowed sharply to 3.7% in FY2025, compared to 72.0% in FY2024 and 180.0% in FY2022.

AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer

About this AESI AI stock analysis

This page is an AI-written research summary of Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

Related: AESI income statement, AESI balance sheet, AESI key metrics, AESI analyst forecast, AESI chart. See the AESI stock overview for the latest quote and news.

AESI AI stock analysis FAQ

What is Atlas Energy Solutions' primary business?

Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. produces, processes, and distributes proppants such as mesh and sand for well completions in the Permian Basin. It also provides logistics, transportation, storage, and contract labor services across Texas and New Mexico.

When does Atlas Energy Solutions report earnings next?

Atlas Energy Solutions is scheduled to report its next earnings on November 2, 2026. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, analysts estimate EPS of -$0.83 on revenue of $1.11B.

What is AESI's debt position?

As of June 30, 2026, AESI had total debt of $966.7M and cash and short-term investments of $168.2M, resulting in net debt of $798.5M. Its debt-to-equity ratio stood at 0.87.

How do analysts rate AESI stock?

Analyst sentiment includes 4 Strong Buy, 3 Buy, 5 Hold, 0 Sell, and 1 Strong Sell ratings. The consensus mean price target is $17.69, which is 79.8% above the closing price of $9.84 on October 16, 2026.

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