The AES Corporation (AES) AI Stock Analysis
AES AI stock analysis summary
AI ResearchThe AES Corporation (NYSE: AES) is a diversified power generation and utility firm operating across the United States, Latin America, Europe, and Asia. Trailing twelve month revenue reached $13.05B with diluted earnings per share of $2.67, aided by 19.9% quarterly revenue expansion as of June 30, 2026. However, capital expenditure demands have driven free cash flow into negative territory, leaving net debt at $30.26B.
- Market cap
- $10.67B
- Revenue (TTM)
- $13.05B
- P/E
- 5.6x fwd 6.6x
- 1Y return
- 5.9% S&P 500 16.8%
- Avg. target
- $15.00 0.3% vs last close
Bull case
- Trailing P/E of 5.6x and forward P/E of 6.6x trade at substantial discounts to the S&P 500 Utilities median multiples of 21.0x and 16.0x.
- Quarterly revenue grew 19.9% year-over-year in the period ended June 30, 2026, outpacing the peer median growth rate of 4.3%.
- A forward dividend yield of 4.71% is supported by a conservative earnings payout ratio of 24.8% and 15 consecutive years of payments.
Bear case
- Net debt reached $30.26B as of June 30, 2026, resulting in an elevated debt-to-equity ratio of 6.50.
- Capital expenditures of $5.93B kept free cash flow negative at -$1.62B in FY2025, marking five consecutive years of negative free cash flow.
- Shareholder returns have lagged broad markets, with a 5-year return of -25.1% compared to an 83.0% gain for the S&P 500.
What AES does
The AES Corporation owns and operates an international portfolio of power generation and distribution facilities with approximately 32,326 megawatts of total generating capacity. It produces electricity utilizing a diverse technology footprint that includes natural gas, coal, hydroelectric, wind, solar, and biomass, alongside energy storage and landfill gas infrastructure. AES distributes, transmits, and sells power to utilities, industrial users, intermediaries, and governmental customers, as well as residential consumers in its utility territories. Headquartered in Arlington, Virginia, the company operates across key regions including the United States, Latin America, Europe, and Asia.
Growth and profitability
Over the five-year period from FY2020 to FY2025, AES generated a revenue compound annual growth rate of 4.8%. Top-line revenue moved from $11.14B in FY2021 to a peak of $12.68B in FY2023, before settling at $12.23B in FY2025 as annual revenue growth contracted 0.4%. Net income improved over this timeline from -$413.0M in FY2021 to $949.0M in FY2025, delivering an annual net margin of 7.8% and EPS of $2.34. For the trailing twelve months ended June 30, 2026, total revenue reached $13.05B with an operating margin of 18.7%. In the latest quarter, year-over-year revenue grew 19.9%, while quarterly earnings growth jumped 951.1%.
Balance sheet and cash flow
As of June 30, 2026, AES held $1.85B in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $32.12B, translating to net debt of $30.26B and a debt-to-equity ratio of 6.50. The current ratio stood at 0.75 on total assets of $54.24B. In FY2025, operating cash flow reached $4.31B, but capital expenditures of $5.93B produced free cash flow of -$1.62B. Cash allocation during FY2025 included $501.0M in dividends paid, while share issuance totaled $992.0M as share count rose 7.2% over five years.
Valuation and performance
AES trades at a trailing price-to-earnings multiple of 5.6x and a forward P/E of 6.6x, compared to medians of 21.0x and 16.0x for its S&P 500 Utilities peers. Its enterprise value of $40.83B represents an EV-to-EBITDA multiple of 10.7x, below the peer group median of 12.2x, while its price-to-sales ratio is 0.8x versus the peer median of 2.9x. Over the past year, AES delivered a price return of 5.9%, trailing the S&P 500 (SPY) return of 16.8%. Over five years, the stock is down 25.1%, compared to an 83.0% gain for the benchmark.
AES dividend
AES provides an annualized forward dividend of $0.70 per share, representing a dividend yield of 4.71% against its last close of $14.95. Distributions are paid quarterly, supported by a payout ratio of 24.8%. The company has paid consecutive dividends for 15 years, with a five-year annualized dividend growth rate of 4.2%. Its last ex-dividend date was October 30, 2026.
What analysts expect
Wall Street coverage includes 9 Hold recommendations, with 0 Strong Buy, Buy, Sell, or Strong Sell ratings. The mean price target of $15.00 sits 0.3% above the last close of $14.95. Consensus estimates for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, anticipate EPS of $2.29 on revenue of $13.32B. For next fiscal year, 9 analysts project EPS of $2.37 on revenue of $13.44B. AES has beaten EPS estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters, and its next earnings date is November 3, 2026.
Key risks and what to watch
- A current ratio of 0.75 and total debt of $32.12B highlight ongoing refinancing and liquidity management needs.
- Share count has expanded 7.2% over five years, including $992.0M of share issuance in FY2025 to finance capital requirements.
- Consensus estimates expect current fiscal year EPS to fall 2.2% to $2.29 before recovering slightly to $2.37 next fiscal year.
AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer
About this AES AI stock analysis
This page is an AI-written research summary of The AES Corporation (AES). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.
Related: AES income statement, AES balance sheet, AES key metrics, AES analyst forecast, AES chart. See the AES stock overview for the latest quote and news.
AES AI stock analysis FAQ
What is AES's dividend yield and payout policy?
AES pays an annual forward dividend of $0.70 per share on a quarterly schedule, yielding 4.71%. The distribution represents a 24.8% payout ratio, and the company has paid dividends for 15 consecutive years.
How leveraged is AES's balance sheet?
As of June 30, 2026, AES had total debt of $32.12B and cash of $1.85B, resulting in $30.26B of net debt. Its debt-to-equity ratio was 6.50, and its current ratio stood at 0.75.
How does AES's valuation compare to other utility stocks?
AES trades at a trailing P/E of 5.6x, an EV-to-EBITDA of 10.7x, and a price-to-sales ratio of 0.8x. These compare to S&P 500 Utilities peer medians of 21.0x, 12.2x, and 2.9x, respectively.
When does AES report earnings?
The company's next earnings date is scheduled for November 3, 2026. For the current fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, analysts estimate EPS of $2.29 on $13.32B in revenue.