Avista Corporation (AVA) AI Stock Analysis
AVA AI stock analysis summary
AI ResearchAvista Corporation is an electric and natural gas utility serving customers across the Pacific Northwest and Alaska. In FY2025, the company generated $1.96B in revenue with net income of $193.0M. It carries $3.29B in total debt and offers a forward dividend yield of 5.37%.
- Market cap
- $3.07B
- Revenue (TTM)
- $1.92B
- P/E
- 13.2x fwd 13.0x
- 1Y return
- 0.2% S&P 500 16.8%
- Avg. target
- $41.00 11.8% vs last close
Bull case
- Avista trades at a discount across multiple valuation metrics, including a forward P/E of 13.0x compared to the US-listed Utilities median of 17.2x.
- The company offers an above-average forward dividend yield of 5.37% backed by 42 consecutive years of payments.
- In the quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly earnings grew 147.9% year-over-year while trailing twelve months EPS reached $2.77.
Bear case
- Avista generated negative free cash flow of -$101.0M in FY2025 due to $570.0M in capital expenditures exceeding operating cash flow.
- The balance sheet carries $3.29B in total debt against just $25.0M in cash and short-term investments.
- Share count expanded by 16.0% over the past 5 years, including $78.0M of share issuance in FY2025, causing ongoing equity dilution.
What Avista does
Avista Corporation provides electric and natural gas services through two primary segments: Avista Utilities and AEL&P. Avista Utilities distributes and transmits electricity, distributes natural gas across eastern Washington, northern Idaho, and parts of Oregon, and generates electricity across Washington, Idaho, Oregon, and Montana. The segment also conducts wholesale power and natural gas transactions. AEL&P supplies electricity to approximately 17,600 customers in Juneau, Alaska. Avista's generation mix includes hydroelectric, thermal, and wind facilities. As of February 22, 2023, the utility served 411,000 electric customers and 377,000 natural gas customers. It also engages in venture fund, real estate, and strategic investments.
Growth and profitability
Between FY2021 and FY2025, Avista grew revenue from $1.44B to $1.96B, achieving a 5-year revenue CAGR of 8.2% from FY2020 to FY2025. Annual net income rose from $147.3M in FY2021 to $193.0M in FY2025, with diluted EPS expanding from $2.09 to $2.38. Operating margin was 18.0% in FY2025, up from 15.8% in FY2024, though gross margin contracted to 24.2% from 58.8%. Over the trailing twelve months ended June 30, 2026, revenue stood at $1.92B with an operating margin of 13.3% and net margin of 11.8%. In the quarter ended June 30, 2026, revenue grew 0.5% year-over-year while quarterly earnings surged 147.9%.
Balance sheet and cash flow
As of June 30, 2026, Avista held $25.0M in cash and short-term investments against $3.29B in total debt, resulting in net debt of $3.27B. Shareholders' equity was $2.82B, yielding a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.17 and a current ratio of 1.10. In FY2025, operating cash flow was $469.0M, which did not fully cover capital expenditures of $570.0M, producing free cash flow of -$101.0M. The company funded liquidity needs partly via $78.0M in share issuance, contributing to a 16.0% increase in share count over 5 years, while paying $159.0M in dividends.
Valuation and performance
Avista trades at a trailing P/E of 13.2x and a forward P/E of 13.0x, both sitting below the median of its US-listed Utilities peers, which stand at 20.6x and 17.2x, respectively. Its enterprise value of $6.30B implies an EV/EBITDA of 9.7x compared to the peer median of 12.1x, and its price-to-sales ratio is 1.6x versus the peer median of 2.4x. Over the past year, Avista's stock delivered a 0.2% return, lagging the 16.8% return for the S&P 500 (SPY). Over a 5-year period, the stock gained 14.1% compared to 83.0% for SPY.
AVA dividend
Avista pays an annual forward dividend of $1.97 per share, representing a 5.37% dividend yield. Dividends are distributed quarterly, supported by 42 consecutive years of dividend payments. Over the past five years, the dividend grew at an annualized rate of 3.9%. In FY2025, the company paid $159.0M in dividends, and its current payout ratio is 78.4%. The last ex-dividend date was August 18, 2026.
What analysts expect
Wall Street coverage includes 7 analysts, with ratings broken down into 1 Strong Buy, 5 Holds, and 1 Sell. The mean price target is $41.00, representing an 11.8% premium to the last close of $36.67. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, consensus estimates project revenue of $2.00B and EPS of $2.63, reflecting 10.5% EPS growth. The company beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, and its next earnings report is scheduled for November 4, 2026.
Key risks and what to watch
- Avista's debt-to-equity ratio sits at 1.17, which may elevate financial pressure given its $3.27B in net debt.
- A high dividend payout ratio of 78.4% leaves less earnings cushion if operations face cost overruns or adverse weather.
- Gross margin dropped to 24.2% in FY2025 from 58.8% in FY2024, highlighting potential margin volatility.
- Short interest accounts for 6.0% of the float, pointing to measurable bearish sentiment.
AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer
About this AVA AI stock analysis
This page is an AI-written research summary of Avista Corporation (AVA). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.
Related: AVA income statement, AVA balance sheet, AVA key metrics, AVA analyst forecast, AVA chart. See the AVA stock overview for the latest quote and news.
AVA AI stock analysis FAQ
What dividend does Avista Corporation pay?
Avista pays an annual forward dividend of $1.97 per share, which equates to a 5.37% dividend yield. The company has paid dividends for 42 consecutive years and has a payout ratio of 78.4%.
What are analysts' price targets and earnings expectations for AVA?
The mean analyst price target is $41.00, which is 11.8% above its last close of $36.67. Consensus estimates project FY2026 EPS of $2.63 on $2.00B in revenue.
How much debt does Avista have?
As of June 30, 2026, Avista held $3.29B in total debt and $25.0M in cash, resulting in net debt of $3.27B and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.17.
How does Avista's valuation compare to its utility peers?
Avista trades at a forward P/E of 13.0x and an EV/EBITDA of 9.7x, both lower than the median of its US-listed Utilities peers at 17.2x and 12.1x, respectively.