About the 10Y–2Y Treasury yield spread
The yield curve spread is the 10-year Treasury yield minus the 2-year Treasury yield. Normally long-term yields are higher, so the spread is positive. When short-term yields climb above long-term ones the spread turns negative and the curve is said to be inverted.
An inverted 10Y–2Y curve has preceded every US recession since the late 1970s, usually by 6 to 24 months, although the lag varies and it has given at least one false signal. The grey bands on the chart mark recessions, so you can compare them with the periods below zero.
Yield Curve (10Y − 2Y) by year
| Year | Average | High | Low | December / latest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 (to Oct) | 0.48% | 0.68% | 0.34% | 0.39% |
| 2025 | 0.48% | 0.64% | 0.24% | 0.64% |
| 2024 | −0.16% | 0.17% | −0.43% | 0.17% |
| 2023 | −0.63% | −0.27% | −0.93% | −0.44% |
| 2022 | −0.03% | 0.78% | −0.67% | −0.67% |
| 2021 | 1.18% | 1.47% | 0.79% | 0.79% |
| 2020 | 0.50% | 0.80% | 0.17% | 0.80% |
| 2019 | 0.17% | 0.26% | 0.05% | 0.25% |
| 2018 | 0.38% | 0.68% | 0.16% | 0.16% |
| 2017 | 0.93% | 1.23% | 0.56% | 0.56% |
| 2016 | 1.01% | 1.30% | 0.82% | 1.30% |
| 2015 | 1.45% | 1.68% | 1.26% | 1.26% |
| 2014 | 2.08% | 2.46% | 1.57% | 1.57% |
| 2013 | 2.04% | 2.56% | 1.53% | 2.56% |
| 2012 | 1.53% | 1.83% | 1.28% | 1.46% |
| 2011 | 2.33% | 2.80% | 1.72% | 1.72% |
| 2010 | 2.51% | 2.83% | 2.16% | 2.67% |
| 2009 | 2.30% | 2.72% | 1.71% | 2.72% |
| 2008 | 1.66% | 2.31% | 1.27% | 1.60% |
| 2007 | 0.27% | 0.98% | −0.13% | 0.98% |
| 2006 | −0.03% | 0.14% | −0.15% | −0.11% |
| 2005 | 0.44% | 1.00% | 0.06% | 0.06% |
| 2004 | 1.89% | 2.39% | 1.22% | 1.22% |
| 2003 | 2.36% | 2.58% | 2.11% | 2.36% |
| 2002 | 1.98% | 2.20% | 1.73% | 2.20% |
| 2001 | 1.19% | 1.98% | 0.40% | 1.98% |
| 2000 | −0.23% | 0.22% | −0.41% | −0.11% |
| 1999 | 0.21% | 0.29% | 0.11% | 0.17% |
| 1998 | 0.14% | 0.44% | −0.02% | 0.14% |
| 1997 | 0.36% | 0.57% | 0.09% | 0.09% |
Monthly values. The last 30 years are shown; the chart above has the full history since June 1976.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the current 10Y–2Y Treasury yield spread?
The 10Y–2Y Treasury yield spread was 0.39% in October 2026, down 0.15 points from a year earlier, according to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
What was the highest 10Y–2Y Treasury yield spread on record?
Since June 1976, the highest reading was 2.83% in February 2010 and the lowest was −2.14% in March 1980.
Where does this data come from?
The numbers are published by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and distributed by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in FRED (series T10Y2Y). They are US government statistics in the public domain. Quotelinks checks for new data every day.
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