About the 10-year breakeven inflation rate
The 10-year breakeven inflation rate is the 10-year Treasury yield minus the 10-year TIPS yield. It is the average annual inflation rate over the next ten years at which a regular Treasury and an inflation-protected one would pay the same, so it is read as the bond market’s inflation forecast.
The Federal Reserve watches it to judge whether long-term inflation expectations stay close to its 2% goal. A rise means investors expect more inflation; a fall means less.
Inflation Expectations (10-Year) by year
| Year | Average | High | Low | December / latest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 (to Oct) | 2.33% | 2.45% | 2.25% | 2.35% |
| 2025 | 2.33% | 2.42% | 2.24% | 2.24% |
| 2024 | 2.27% | 2.39% | 2.11% | 2.30% |
| 2023 | 2.28% | 2.39% | 2.18% | 2.18% |
| 2022 | 2.52% | 2.88% | 2.26% | 2.26% |
| 2021 | 2.36% | 2.62% | 2.08% | 2.46% |
| 2020 | 1.49% | 1.92% | 0.99% | 1.92% |
| 2019 | 1.74% | 1.94% | 1.56% | 1.72% |
| 2018 | 2.07% | 2.14% | 1.82% | 1.82% |
| 2017 | 1.88% | 2.02% | 1.73% | 1.90% |
| 2016 | 1.57% | 1.94% | 1.31% | 1.94% |
| 2015 | 1.69% | 1.87% | 1.50% | 1.52% |
| 2014 | 2.10% | 2.26% | 1.70% | 1.70% |
| 2013 | 2.28% | 2.55% | 2.05% | 2.16% |
| 2012 | 2.28% | 2.49% | 2.07% | 2.48% |
| 2011 | 2.23% | 2.59% | 1.90% | 2.01% |
| 2010 | 2.07% | 2.36% | 1.68% | 2.25% |
| 2009 | 1.60% | 2.23% | 0.61% | 2.23% |
| 2008 | 1.89% | 2.47% | 0.25% | 0.25% |
| 2007 | 2.35% | 2.44% | 2.24% | 2.31% |
| 2006 | 2.48% | 2.66% | 2.30% | 2.31% |
| 2005 | 2.47% | 2.71% | 2.30% | 2.34% |
| 2004 | 2.44% | 2.63% | 2.26% | 2.56% |
| 2003 | 1.96% | 2.34% | 1.61% | 2.28% |
Monthly values. The last 24 years are shown; the chart above has the full history since January 2003.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the current 10-year breakeven inflation rate?
The 10-year breakeven inflation rate was 2.35% in October 2026, up 0.04 points from a year earlier, according to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
What was the highest 10-year breakeven inflation rate on record?
Since January 2003, the highest reading was 2.88% in April 2022 and the lowest was 0.25% in December 2008.
Where does this data come from?
The numbers are published by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and distributed by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in FRED (series T10YIE). They are US government statistics in the public domain. Quotelinks checks for new data every day.
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