TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM) AI Stock Analysis
TXNM AI stock analysis summary
AI ResearchTXNM Energy, Inc. (NYSE: TXNM) is a regulated electric utility serving retail, commercial, and industrial customers across New Mexico and Texas. Over the trailing twelve months, the company generated $2.23B in revenue with an operating margin of 22.5%. While the business continues to invest heavily in its grid with $1.20B in FY2025 capital expenditures, free cash flow remained negative at -$611.4M.
- Market cap
- $6.44B
- Revenue (TTM)
- $2.23B
- P/E
- 33.6x fwd 18.0x
- 1Y return
- 5.7% S&P 500 16.8%
- Avg. target
- $60.70 3.7% vs last close
Bull case
- Quarterly earnings jumped 190.9% year-over-year in the period ended June 30, 2026, supported by 9.2% revenue growth.
- The company maintains an unbroken 31-year dividend payment streak with a 5.8% 5-year annualized growth rate and a 2.89% yield.
- TXNM operates with a conservative debt profile relative to equity, carrying a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.21.
Bear case
- Intense infrastructure spending generated negative free cash flow of -$611.4M in FY2025 due to $1.20B in capital expenditures.
- The stock trades at a trailing P/E of 33.6x, well above the 20.6x median of its US-listed Utilities peers.
- Shareholder dilution has occurred over time, with the share count increasing 29.3% across the past 5 years.
What TXNM Energy does
TXNM Energy, Inc., formerly known as PNM Resources, Inc, provides electricity and electric services in the United States. Through its subsidiaries, it engages in the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity for retail customers, and provides regulated transmission and distribution services in Texas. The company owns and leases communications, office and other equipment, office space, vehicles, energy storage facilities, and real estate, serving residential, commercial, and industrial customers in New Mexico and Texas. Founded in 1882, the company is headquartered in Albuquerque, New Mexico.
Growth and profitability
TXNM grew annual revenue from $1.78B in FY2021 to $2.17B in FY2025, recording a 5-year revenue CAGR of 7.3%. Performance fluctuated over this span, including a 13.8% decline in FY2023 followed by a 9.9% rebound in FY2025. Net income was $151.4M in FY2025, down from $242.7M in FY2024, resulting in a net margin of 7.0% and EPS of $2.25. For the trailing twelve months, revenue reached $2.23B with a net profit margin of 8.8%. In the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue increased 9.2% year-over-year, while quarterly earnings surged 190.9%.
Balance sheet and cash flow
As of June 30, 2026, TXNM held $14.6M in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $752.7M, resulting in net debt of $738.1M. Shareholders' equity stood at $3.55B, yielding a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.21 and a current ratio of 0.56. During FY2025, operating cash flow was $584.5M, but capital expenditures of $1.20B led to free cash flow of -$611.4M. Capital returns included $163.4M in dividends paid and $12.0M in share buybacks, while the share count rose 29.3% over the past 5 years.
Valuation and performance
At $58.52 per share, TXNM trades at a trailing P/E of 33.6x and a forward P/E of 18.0x, compared to medians of 20.6x and 17.2x for its US-listed Utilities peers. Its enterprise value of $12.36B reflects an EV/EBITDA of 12.2x, matching closely with the peer median of 12.1x, while its price-to-sales multiple is 2.9x versus the peer median of 2.4x. Over the past year, TXNM gained 5.7%, trailing the S&P 500 (SPY) return of 16.8%, and its 5-year gain of 42.1% lagged the index return of 83.0%.
TXNM dividend
TXNM pays a quarterly dividend with an annualized forward payout of $1.69 per share, equating to a 2.89% dividend yield. The company has paid consecutive dividends for 31 years, delivering a 5-year annualized dividend growth rate of 5.8%. Its dividend payout ratio stands at 65.1%, with its last ex-dividend date on October 23, 2026.
What analysts expect
Wall Street coverage consists of 5 analysts, with 1 Buy rating and 4 Hold ratings. The mean price target is $60.70, representing a 3.7% premium over the last close of $58.52. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, consensus estimates project EPS of $2.86 (up 22.7%) on revenue of $2.36B. For the subsequent year, 6 analysts anticipate EPS of $3.24 on revenue of $2.54B. TXNM beat EPS estimates in 1 of the last 4 quarters, and its next earnings report is scheduled for October 30, 2026.
Key risks and what to watch
- Short-term liquidity is tight, as shown by a current ratio of 0.56 and $14.6M in cash against $752.7M in total debt.
- Free cash flow has been persistently negative across five consecutive fiscal years, including -$738.9M in FY2024 and -$611.4M in FY2025.
- Earnings reliability has been mixed, with TXNM beating analyst EPS estimates in only 1 of the last 4 quarters.
- The stock has lagged broader markets, returning 5.7% over 1 year compared to 16.8% for the S&P 500.
AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer
About this TXNM AI stock analysis
This page is an AI-written research summary of TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.
Related: TXNM income statement, TXNM balance sheet, TXNM key metrics, TXNM analyst forecast, TXNM chart. See the TXNM stock overview for the latest quote and news.
TXNM AI stock analysis FAQ
What is TXNM Energy's dividend yield and payout schedule?
TXNM pays dividends quarterly with an annualized forward payout of $1.69 per share, which represents a dividend yield of 2.89%. It has maintained a 31-year continuous dividend record with a payout ratio of 65.1%.
What are analysts forecasting for TXNM's earnings and stock price?
Analysts hold a mean price target of $60.70, which is 3.7% above the last close of $58.52. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, consensus estimates expect EPS of $2.86 on revenue of $2.36B.
Why was TXNM's free cash flow negative in FY2025?
Although TXNM generated $584.5M in operating cash flow in FY2025, it spent $1.20B on capital expenditures for utility infrastructure, resulting in free cash flow of -$611.4M.
How does TXNM's valuation compare to other utility stocks?
TXNM trades at a trailing P/E of 33.6x and a forward P/E of 18.0x, compared to medians of 20.6x and 17.2x for its US-listed Utilities peers. Its EV/EBITDA of 12.2x is roughly in line with the peer median of 12.1x.
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