Tennessee Valley Authority (TVE) AI Stock Analysis
TVE AI stock analysis summary
AI ResearchTennessee Valley Authority (TVE) is an electric utility provider generating and selling power wholesale and directly across multiple southeastern states. In FY2025, revenue reached $13.67B with net income of $1.36B, reflecting top-line growth of 11.0%. However, substantial capital expenditures of $4.68B led to a free cash flow deficit of -$1.36B alongside total debt of $25.19B as of June 30, 2026.
- Market cap
- $12.6M
- Revenue (TTM)
- $0
- P/E
- —
- 1Y return
- -0.3% S&P 500 16.8%
- Avg. target
- $5.83 -75.0% vs last close
Bull case
- Revenue expanded 11.0% to $13.67B in FY2025, demonstrating top-line acceleration supported by a 5-year revenue CAGR of 5.9%.
- Operating cash flow strengthened to $3.32B in FY2025, up from $3.00B in FY2024 and $2.87B in FY2023.
- The company maintains a sizable asset base with $61.64B in total assets and $19.48B in shareholders' equity as of June 30, 2026.
Bear case
- High capital expenditures of $4.68B in FY2025 resulted in negative free cash flow of -$1.36B.
- The balance sheet carries significant leverage, with total debt of $25.19B and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.29 as of June 30, 2026.
- Analysts set a mean price target of $5.83, representing a 75.0% discount to the last close of $23.31.
What Tennessee Valley Authority does
Founded in 1931 and based in Knoxville, Tennessee, Tennessee Valley Authority produces and sells electricity in the United States. The utility generates power using coal-fired, nuclear, hydroelectric, combustion turbine, and diesel facilities, alongside solar, wind, biomass, and digester gas sites. It supplies wholesale electricity to municipal and cooperative distributors serving approximately nine million retail customers across Tennessee, northern Alabama, northeastern Mississippi, southwestern Kentucky, and parts of Georgia, North Carolina, and Virginia. The organization also serves federal agencies and large customers directly while managing the Tennessee River system for flood control, navigation, and environmental stewardship.
Growth and profitability
Between FY2020 and FY2025, revenue expanded at a 5-year compound annual growth rate of 5.9%. Annual revenue rose from $10.50B in FY2021 to $12.54B in FY2022 before declining 3.9% to $12.05B in FY2023. Top-line performance rebounded with 2.2% growth to $12.31B in FY2024 and 11.0% growth to $13.67B in FY2025. Gross margin was 40.1% in FY2025, matching FY2024 but down from 46.6% in FY2021. Operating margin finished at 18.8% in FY2025 compared to 27.1% in FY2021. Net income reached $1.36B in FY2025 with a net margin of 9.9% and an eps of -$0.06. For the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, revenue_ttm stood at $0 with an eps_ttm of $0.00.
Balance sheet and cash flow
As of June 30, 2026, the balance sheet held $1.42B in cash and short-term investments against $25.19B in total debt, resulting in net debt of $23.77B. Total assets stood at $61.64B and shareholders' equity was $19.48B, representing a debt_to_equity ratio of 1.29 and a current ratio of 0.97. Operating cash flow totaled $3.32B in FY2025. However, capital expenditures of $4.68B produced a free cash flow deficit of -$1.36B. Share count change over 5 years remained flat at 0.0%.
Valuation and performance
Tennessee Valley Authority closed at $23.31 on October 16, 2026, with a market capitalization of $12.6M and an enterprise value of $0. The stock has posted a 1-year return of -0.3% and a 5-year return of 1.0%, underperforming the S&P 500 (SPY), which generated returns of 16.8% and 83.0% over the same periods. Year-to-date, TVE is down 2.8% and trades 1.4% below its 200-day average. For comparison, the median of its US-listed Utilities peers reflects a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 20.6x, a forward P/E of 17.2x, and an enterprise value-to-EBITDA multiple of 12.1x.
What analysts expect
Analyst consensus shows a mean price target of $5.83 for Tennessee Valley Authority, which sits 75.0% below the October 16, 2026 closing price of $23.31. Over the last 4 quarters, the company recorded 0 eps beats against expectations. For FY2025, diluted earnings per share was -$0.06, contrasting with an eps of $0.95 in FY2022 and $0.16 in FY2023. TTM earnings per share through the June 30, 2026 period stood at $0.00, while the stock traded between a 52-week low of $22.83 and a 52-week high of $24.73.
Key risks and what to watch
- A current ratio of 0.97 as of June 30, 2026, indicates that short-term obligations exceed liquid assets.
- Operating margin has contracted from 27.1% in FY2021 to 18.8% in FY2025, trailing the US-listed Utilities peer median of 22.6%.
- The company logged 0 EPS beats over the last 4 quarters, signaling operational or forecasting challenges.
- Total net debt of $23.77B leaves limited financial flexibility if elevated capital spending continues beyond the $4.68B spent in FY2025.
AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer
About this TVE AI stock analysis
This page is an AI-written research summary of Tennessee Valley Authority (TVE). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.
Related: TVE income statement, TVE balance sheet, TVE key metrics, TVE chart. See the TVE stock overview for the latest quote and news.
TVE AI stock analysis FAQ
What does Tennessee Valley Authority do?
Tennessee Valley Authority generates and supplies electricity to wholesale distributor customers and direct clients across seven southeastern states. As of September 30, 2008, it operated facilities across hydro, coal, nuclear, combustion turbine, diesel, wind, and solar energy, serving approximately nine million retail customers.
What is TVE's debt situation?
As of June 30, 2026, TVE held $25.19B in total debt and $1.42B in cash and short-term investments, yielding net debt of $23.77B. Its debt-to-equity ratio was 1.29.
How has TVE performed relative to the S&P 500?
TVE has lagged the broader market, posting a 1-year return of -0.3% and a 5-year return of 1.0% as of October 16, 2026. By comparison, the S&P 500 (SPY) returned 16.8% over 1 year and 83.0% over 5 years.
What is the analyst price target for TVE?
The mean analyst price target is $5.83, which sits 75.0% below the October 16, 2026 closing price of $23.31. TVE also recorded 0 EPS beats over the last 4 quarters.