NorthWestern Corporation (NWE) AI Stock Analysis
NWE AI stock analysis summary
AI ResearchNorthWestern Corporation (NWE) is a regulated utility providing electric and natural gas service across Montana, South Dakota, and Nebraska to approximately 753,600 clients. Over the trailing twelve months, the company generated $1.69B in revenue with an operating margin of 17.3%. NorthWestern offers a forward dividend yield of 3.59% but carries $3.60B in total debt and reported negative free cash flow of -$130.0M in FY2025.
- Market cap
- $4.60B
- Revenue (TTM)
- $1.69B
- P/E
- 27.0x fwd 17.4x
- 1Y return
- 31.4% S&P 500 16.8%
- Avg. target
- $74.50 -0.3% vs last close
Bull case
- Quarterly revenue grew 14.6% and quarterly earnings expanded 15.7% year-over-year for the period ended June 30, 2026.
- NorthWestern has maintained uninterrupted dividend payments for 22 consecutive years with a forward yield of 3.59%.
- The 1-year total return of 31.4% outperformed the broader market SPY return of 16.8%.
Bear case
- High ongoing capital expenditures of $524.5M contributed to negative free cash flow of -$130.0M in FY2025.
- The balance sheet carries $3.60B in total debt and just $4.2M in cash, resulting in a current ratio of 0.83.
- Shareholder dilution has occurred, with the share count increasing 18.5% over 5 years.
What NorthWestern does
NorthWestern Corporation, operating as NorthWestern Energy, provides electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. It functions through Electric and Natural Gas segments, covering generation, procurement, transmission, distribution, and storage. The company oversees 6,819 miles of electric transmission and 18,177 miles of electric distribution lines, alongside approximately 400 substations, with additional electric transmission and distribution infrastructure in South Dakota. For natural gas, it maintains transmission and distribution lines across Montana, South Dakota, and Nebraska. In total, the utility serves approximately 753,600 clients across Montana, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Yellowstone National Park.
Growth and profitability
NorthWestern grew annual revenue from $1.37B in FY2021 to $1.61B in FY2025, delivering a 5-year revenue CAGR of 6.1%. Over that period, net income moved from $186.8M in FY2021 to $181.1M in FY2025, while EPS increased from $3.49 to $3.58. Gross margin was 82.3% in FY2025, compared to 85.0% in FY2024 and 51.7% in FY2022. For the trailing twelve months, revenue reached $1.69B, and EPS stood at $2.77. In the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue grew 14.6% year-over-year, and quarterly earnings grew 15.7% year-over-year.
Balance sheet and cash flow
As of June 30, 2026, NorthWestern held $4.2M in cash and short-term investments against $3.60B in total debt, resulting in net debt of $3.59B and a current ratio of 0.83. Shareholders' equity stood at $2.90B, yielding a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.24. In FY2025, the company generated $394.5M in operating cash flow while funding $524.5M in capital expenditures, leading to free cash flow of -$130.0M. The company also paid $161.4M in dividends in FY2025, while its share count expanded 18.5% over 5 years.
Valuation and performance
NorthWestern trades at a trailing P/E of 27.0x, above the 20.6x median of its US-listed Utilities peers. Its forward P/E stands at 17.4x compared to the peer median of 17.2x, while its EV/EBITDA of 13.2x sits above the peer median of 12.1x. The company's price-to-sales ratio is 2.7x, compared to the peer median of 2.4x. Over the past year, the stock returned 31.4%, outpacing the SPY return of 16.8%. Over a 5-year span, NorthWestern returned 64.1%, trailing the SPY return of 83.0%.
NWE dividend
NorthWestern pays an annualized forward dividend of $2.68 per share, representing a 3.59% dividend yield with a payout ratio of 70.8%. The company has paid dividends for 22 consecutive years, delivering an annualized 5-year dividend growth rate of 1.9%. Its last ex-dividend date was August 17, 2026.
What analysts expect
Wall Street coverage includes 3 Strong Buy, 1 Buy, and 4 Hold ratings. The mean price target is $74.50, representing a 0.3% discount to the last close of $74.72. For the current fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, analysts estimate revenue of $1.74B and EPS of $3.74. For next fiscal year, 9 analysts project revenue of $1.82B and EPS of $3.97. NorthWestern beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, and its next earnings date is November 4, 2026.
Key risks and what to watch
- The trailing operating margin of 17.3% is lower than the US-listed Utilities peer median of 22.6%.
- A current ratio of 0.83 indicates short-term obligations exceed current assets.
- Free cash flow has remained negative across all five reported fiscal years, ending at -$130.0M in FY2025.
AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer
About this NWE AI stock analysis
This page is an AI-written research summary of NorthWestern Corporation (NWE). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.
Related: NWE income statement, NWE balance sheet, NWE key metrics, NWE analyst forecast, NWE chart. See the NWE stock overview for the latest quote and news.
NWE AI stock analysis FAQ
What dividend does NorthWestern Corporation pay?
NorthWestern pays an annualized forward dividend of $2.68 per share, which equates to a 3.59% dividend yield. It distributes dividends quarterly and has paid dividends for 22 consecutive years.
What are analysts forecasting for NorthWestern's earnings?
For FY2026, analysts estimate EPS of $3.74 on revenue of $1.74B. For the following fiscal year, 9 analysts forecast EPS of $3.97 on revenue of $1.82B.
How does NorthWestern's valuation compare to its utility peers?
NorthWestern trades at a trailing P/E of 27.0x and forward P/E of 17.4x, compared to the median of its US-listed Utilities peers of 20.6x and 17.2x, respectively.
When does NorthWestern report earnings next?
NorthWestern Corporation is scheduled to report its next earnings on November 4, 2026.
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