Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM) AI Stock Analysis
AGM AI stock analysis summary
AI ResearchFederal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM) provides a secondary market for agricultural and rural infrastructure loans across the United States. In the trailing twelve months, the company generated $408.7M in revenue with a net profit margin of 56.0% and diluted EPS of $18.28. AGM pays an annual forward dividend of $6.30, representing a 3.09% yield backed by a 34.5% payout ratio.
- Market cap
- $2.21B
- Revenue (TTM)
- $408.7M
- P/E
- 11.2x fwd 9.4x
- 1Y return
- 36.0% S&P 500 16.8%
- Avg. target
- $257.00 26.0% vs last close
Bull case
- AGM outperformed the broader market over the past year with a 36.0% return compared to 16.8% for the S&P 500.
- In the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, the company achieved quarterly revenue growth of 24.9% and quarterly earnings growth of 20.8%.
- The stock trades at a forward P/E of 9.4x and a PEG ratio of 0.72, below the median of its US-listed Financial Services peers at 10.8x.
Bear case
- Annual revenue contracted 18.9% in FY2025 to $1.32B after reaching $1.62B in FY2024.
- Free cash flow decreased significantly from $607.4M in FY2024 to $80.1M in FY2025.
- Total debt stands at $34.69B as of June 30, 2026, contributing to an elevated debt-to-equity ratio of 18.71.
What Federal Agricultural Mortgage does
Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation, established in 1987 and headquartered in Washington, D.C., delivers a secondary market for loans supporting agricultural and rural communities across the United States. The corporation operates via distinct business segments: Corporate AgFinance, Farm & Ranch, Rural Utilities, and Renewable Energy. Through its Agricultural Finance division, it purchases and retains eligible loans, provides credit guarantees, and issues securities representing interests in pooled loans to support agricultural lending liquidity. In addition, its Rural Infrastructure Finance division finances essential improvements such as electric and telecommunications facilities along with renewable energy projects by purchasing loans and issuing pool-backed securities.
Growth and profitability
AGM expanded its revenue from $447.7M in FY2021 to a peak of $1.62B in FY2024 before revenue fell 18.9% to $1.32B in FY2025. Despite top-line contraction in FY2025, net income rose slightly to $207.4M, with EPS increasing to $16.61 and gross margin improving to 29.5%. Over the 5-year period from FY2020 to FY2025, revenue grew at a CAGR of 44.8%. In the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, revenue increased 24.9% year-over-year, while quarterly earnings grew 20.8%. Operating margin reached 69.7% over the trailing twelve months, generating TTM revenue of $408.7M.
Balance sheet and cash flow
As of June 30, 2026, AGM held $20.46B in cash and short-term investments alongside total debt of $34.69B, resulting in net debt of $14.23B against total assets of $39.29B. Shareholders' equity was $1.85B, reflecting a debt-to-equity ratio of 18.71 and a current ratio of 1.61. During FY2025, operating cash flow and free cash flow both reached $80.1M, down from $607.4M in free cash flow in FY2024. AGM utilized its capital by paying $89.0M in dividends and deploying $12.9M toward share buybacks in FY2025.
Valuation and performance
AGM closed at $203.97 on October 16, 2026, reflecting a market capitalization of $2.21B and an enterprise value of $38.75B. The stock trades at a trailing P/E of 11.2x and a forward P/E of 9.4x, both below the median of its US-listed Financial Services peers at 12.1x and 10.8x, respectively. Its price-to-sales ratio stands at 5.4x compared to the peer median of 3.2x, while price-to-book is 1.9x. Over the past year, AGM shares gained 36.0%, outperforming the S&P 500 return of 16.8%, and delivered a 5-year return of 102.5% versus 83.0% for the index.
AGM dividend
AGM pays a quarterly dividend totaling $6.30 annually on a forward basis, translating to a dividend yield of 3.09%. The dividend is covered by a 34.5% payout ratio. The company has paid consecutive dividends for 23 years, posting a 5-year annualized dividend growth rate of 13.4%. Its most recent ex-dividend date occurred on September 15, 2026.
What analysts expect
Wall Street coverage consists of 1 Strong Buy and 1 Buy rating, with no Hold, Sell, or Strong Sell recommendations. The consensus mean price target of $257.00 represents an upside of 26.0% from the last close of $203.97. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, analysts estimate EPS of $20.70 on revenue of $480.8M. AGM has beaten EPS estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters, and its next earnings release is scheduled for November 2, 2026.
Key risks and what to watch
- A substantial debt load of $34.69B against $1.85B in shareholders' equity presents ongoing leverage and balance sheet risk.
- AGM has beaten consensus EPS forecasts in only 2 of the last 4 quarters, showing variability against analyst estimates.
- Operating cash flow declined to $80.1M in FY2025 from $612.6M in FY2024, which could restrict future capital deployment if sustained.
AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer
About this AGM AI stock analysis
This page is an AI-written research summary of Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.
Related: AGM income statement, AGM balance sheet, AGM key metrics, AGM analyst forecast, AGM chart. See the AGM stock overview for the latest quote and news.
AGM AI stock analysis FAQ
What is Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation's dividend yield and payout history?
AGM offers a forward dividend yield of 3.09% based on an annual forward dividend of $6.30. The company has paid dividends for 23 consecutive years with a 5-year annualized growth rate of 13.4% and a payout ratio of 34.5%.
How do analysts view AGM stock?
Coverage includes 1 Strong Buy and 1 Buy rating, with a consensus mean price target of $257.00. This target represents an implied upside of 26.0% over the closing price of $203.97 as of October 16, 2026.
What are the earnings and revenue growth forecasts for AGM?
For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, consensus estimates anticipate EPS of $20.70 on revenue of $480.8M. For the subsequent fiscal year, analysts project EPS of $23.07 and revenue of $543.2M, representing annual growth of 11.5% and 13.0%, respectively.
How does AGM's valuation compare to its peer group?
AGM trades at a trailing P/E of 11.2x and a forward P/E of 9.4x, which are both lower than the median of its US-listed Financial Services peers at 12.1x and 10.8x. However, its price-to-sales ratio of 5.4x exceeds the peer median of 3.2x.