ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. (ADTN) AI Stock Analysis

NASDAQ: ADTNAI research summary: business, growth, valuation, analysts, bull and bear case.

ADTN AI stock analysis summary

AI Research

ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. (ADTN) provides fiber networking solutions and support services to service providers, enterprises, and governments. While the company generated $1.08B in FY2025 revenue and $98.0M in free cash flow, trailing twelve-month net profit margin remained negative at -2.3%. The stock closed at $6.31, representing a 1-year return of -32.9%.

Market cap
$514.1M
Revenue (TTM)
$1.14B
P/E
—
fwd 12.7x
1Y return
-32.9%
S&P 500 16.8%
Avg. target
$14.67
132.4% vs last close

Bull case

  • ADTRAN delivered positive FY2025 free cash flow of $98.0M, recovering from -$79.4M in FY2023.
  • The stock trades at an EV/EBITDA of 6.6x, compared to the median of its US-listed Technology peers of 16.6x.
  • Analyst consensus projects next fiscal year EPS growth of 102.0% to $0.58 on $1.24B in revenue.

Bear case

  • ADTRAN recorded trailing twelve-month net losses with a profit margin of -2.3% and an EPS of -$0.28.
  • The company carries total debt of $242.7M against shareholders' equity of $129.5M, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.87.
  • Shareholder dilution has been substantial, with the 5-year share count expanding by 64.9%.

What ADTRAN does

ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. delivers fiber networking solutions across the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, Mexico, and other international markets. Operating through Network Solutions and Services & Support segments, its portfolio includes fiber access and fiber-to-the-node platforms, optical line terminals, transceivers, packet optical transports, and network management software. ADTRAN also supplies broadband customer premises equipment such as switches, routers, residential gateways, mesh Wi-Fi gateways, and cloud software-as-a-service platforms, backed by engineering, maintenance, installation, and commissioning services.

Growth and profitability

Between FY2020 and FY2025, ADTRAN grew revenue at a 5-year CAGR of 16.4%, moving from $563.0M in FY2021 to $1.08B in FY2025. Following a revenue decline of 19.7% in FY2024 to $922.7M, revenue rebounded 17.5% in FY2025. Operating margin contracted to -46.3% in FY2024 and recovered to -1.4% in FY2025, while net income improved from -$459.9M in FY2024 to -$45.7M in FY2025. For the trailing twelve months ended June 30, 2026, revenue stood at $1.14B with an operating margin of -3.5% and an EPS of -$0.28. In the quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue grew 6.1% year-over-year, while quarterly earnings declined 60.0%.

ADTN income statement →

Balance sheet and cash flow

As of June 30, 2026, ADTRAN held $118.3M in cash and short-term investments against $242.7M in total debt, resulting in net debt of $124.4M. Shareholders' equity was $129.5M, establishing a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.87 and a current ratio of 1.79. In FY2025, the company generated $129.8M in operating cash flow and invested $31.7M in capital expenditures, yielding free cash flow of $98.0M. Over the trailing five years, the share count increased by 64.9%.

ADTN balance sheet →

Valuation and performance

With a market cap of $514.1M and an enterprise value of $703.3M, ADTRAN trades at a forward P/E of 12.7x and an EV/EBITDA of 6.6x. These multiples compare to the median of its US-listed Technology peers of 18.8x forward P/E and 16.6x EV/EBITDA. Its price-to-sales ratio is 0.5x, below the peer group median of 2.8x. Over the past year, ADTRAN delivered a return of -32.9%, trailing the S&P 500 (SPY) return of 16.8%.

ADTN key metrics →

What analysts expect

Wall Street coverage consists of 6 Strong Buy, 1 Buy, and 2 Hold ratings. The mean price target is $14.67, which is 132.4% above the last close of $6.31. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, analysts estimate an EPS of $0.29 on revenue of $1.15B. For the following fiscal year, 7 analysts project EPS of $0.58 on revenue of $1.24B. The company beat EPS estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters, with its next earnings date scheduled for November 2, 2026.

ADTN forecast and price target →

Key risks and what to watch

  • Quarterly earnings fell 60.0% year-over-year in the latest quarter ending June 30, 2026.
  • Short interest represents 16.6% of the float, reflecting negative sentiment in the market.
  • The stock sits at $6.31, which is 43.9% below its 200-day moving average and just above its 52-week low of $6.29.

AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer

About this ADTN AI stock analysis

This page is an AI-written research summary of ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. (ADTN). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

Related: ADTN income statement, ADTN balance sheet, ADTN key metrics, ADTN analyst forecast, ADTN chart. See the ADTN stock overview for the latest quote and news.

ADTN AI stock analysis FAQ

What is ADTRAN Holdings' price target?

The consensus mean price target from analysts is $14.67, which stands 132.4% above the last closing price of $6.31.

When does ADTRAN report earnings?

ADTRAN's next earnings report is scheduled for November 2, 2026.

Does ADTN pay a dividend?

ADTRAN does not currently report a dividend payment.

What is ADTRAN's debt level?

As of June 30, 2026, ADTRAN carried total debt of $242.7M and net debt of $124.4M, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.87.

More Technology AI stock analysis