Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI) AI Stock Analysis

NASDAQ: AAOIAI research summary: business, growth, valuation, analysts, bull and bear case.

AAOI AI stock analysis summary

AI Research

Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. designs and manufactures fiber-optic networking equipment for data centers, telecom, and cable operators. Revenue expanded 82.8% in FY2025 to $455.7M, alongside 86.4% year-over-year quarterly revenue growth for the period ended June 30, 2026. However, profitability and cash generation remain negative, evidenced by an operating margin of -12.9% over the trailing twelve months and FY2025 free cash flow of -$353.6M.

Market cap
$6.42B
Revenue (TTM)
$596.0M
P/E
—
fwd 84.0x
1Y return
142.7%
S&P 500 16.8%
Avg. target
$160.00
111.7% vs last close

Bull case

  • Revenue growth accelerated to 86.4% year-over-year in the quarter ended June 30, 2026, lifting trailing twelve month revenue to $596.0M.
  • Consensus estimates project a transition to profitability, with EPS expected to reach $0.68 in FY2026 and $4.60 in FY2027.
  • The balance sheet provides $235.2M in net cash alongside a current ratio of 2.78 as of June 30, 2026.

Bear case

  • Applied Optoelectronics has recorded net losses in each of the past five fiscal years, including -$38.2M in FY2025 and an operating margin of -12.9% over the trailing twelve months.
  • Free cash flow deteriorated to -$353.6M in FY2025, driven by -$174.4M in operating cash flow and $179.1M in capital expenditures.
  • Substantial equity issuance has diluted existing shareholders, reflected in a 200.2% increase in share count over the last 5 years.

What Applied Optoelectronics does

Founded in 1997 and headquartered in Sugar Land, Texas, Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. specializes in the design, manufacturing, and global sales of fiber-optic networking products. Its extensive product catalog includes optical modules, lasers, subassemblies, transmitters, transceivers, turn-key equipment, and headend, node, and distribution hardware. The company serves internet data center operators, cable television and telecom equipment manufacturers, and internet service providers through both direct and indirect sales channels. Operating with 4,691 employees, it focuses research and development on enhancing product performance, lowering costs, and meeting increasing global bandwidth demands.

Growth and profitability

Applied Optoelectronics achieved a 5-year revenue CAGR of 14.2% between FY2020 and FY2025. Annual revenue fell 2.3% in FY2023 to $217.6M before accelerating 14.6% to $249.4M in FY2024 and 82.8% to $455.7M in FY2025. Gross margin expanded from 17.8% in FY2021 to 30.0% in FY2025, while operating margin improved from -26.8% to -12.0%. Net income remained negative across all five fiscal years, posting -$38.2M in FY2025 compared to -$186.7M in FY2024. For the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue rose 86.4% year-over-year, bringing trailing twelve month revenue to $596.0M with an EPS of -$0.75.

AAOI income statement →

Balance sheet and cash flow

As of June 30, 2026, Applied Optoelectronics held $499.7M in cash and short-term investments against $264.5M in total debt, giving it net cash of $235.2M. Liquidity is supported by a current ratio of 2.78 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.16 against $1.67B in shareholders' equity. In FY2025, operating cash flow stood at -$174.4M and capital expenditures were $179.1M, yielding free cash flow of -$353.6M. Over the past 5 years, the company's share count increased by 200.2%.

AAOI balance sheet →

Valuation and performance

At $75.57 on October 16, 2026, Applied Optoelectronics trades at a market capitalization of $6.42B and an enterprise value of $8.38B. The stock is valued at a forward P/E of 84.0x, a price-to-sales ratio of 10.8x, and an EV/EBITDA of 38.4x. These valuation multiples are above the median of its US-listed Technology peers, which trades at a forward P/E of 18.8x, price-to-sales of 2.8x, and EV/EBITDA of 16.6x. Over the past year, AAOI shares returned 142.7% and 946.7% over 5 years, compared to 16.8% and 83.0% for the S&P 500 (SPY).

AAOI key metrics →

What analysts expect

Wall Street coverage consists of 1 Strong Buy, 2 Buy, and 3 Hold ratings, with zero Sell ratings. The mean price target is $160.00, representing an upside of 111.7% from the last close of $75.57. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, consensus estimates project revenue of $1.04B and EPS of $0.68. For FY2027, 5 analysts project revenue of $2.66B and EPS of $4.60. The company beat EPS estimates in 1 of the last 4 quarters and is scheduled to report earnings next on November 5, 2026.

AAOI forecast and price target →

Key risks and what to watch

  • The stock exhibits significant volatility, reflected in a beta of 3.84 and a price trading 32.7% below its 200-day moving average.
  • Short interest stands at 16.9% of the float, indicating substantial bearish sentiment in the market.
  • Valuation multiples remain elevated, with an EV/EBITDA of 38.4x compared to the US-listed Technology peer median of 16.6x.
  • Earnings execution has been inconsistent, with the company beating analyst EPS estimates in only 1 of the last 4 quarters.

AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer

About this AAOI AI stock analysis

This page is an AI-written research summary of Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

Related: AAOI income statement, AAOI balance sheet, AAOI key metrics, AAOI analyst forecast, AAOI chart. See the AAOI stock overview for the latest quote and news.

AAOI AI stock analysis FAQ

When is the next earnings date for Applied Optoelectronics?

Applied Optoelectronics is scheduled to report earnings on November 5, 2026.

What is the Wall Street price target for AAOI?

The mean analyst price target is $160.00, which is 111.7% above the last close of $75.57.

Does Applied Optoelectronics pay a dividend?

No, Applied Optoelectronics does not currently pay a dividend.

What are analysts forecasting for AAOI's revenue and earnings?

Analysts estimate FY2026 revenue of $1.04B and EPS of $0.68, followed by FY2027 revenue of $2.66B and EPS of $4.60.

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