Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) AI Stock Analysis

Novavax, Inc. is a biotechnology company dedicated to discovering, developing, and commercializing vaccines to prevent serious infectious diseases and address global health needs. Its leading vaccine candidate, NVX-CoV2373, targets coronavirus and has undergone clinical testing across multiple Phase III, Phase IIb, and Phase I/II trials, supported by a collaboration agreement with Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited. The company's pipeline also includes NanoFlu, a nanoparticle-based seasonal quadrivalent influenza vaccine candidate in Phase 3 clinical trials, and ResVax, an RSV fusion protein nanoparticle vaccine. Additional candidates include RSV F vaccines in Phase II trials for older adults and Phase I trials for pediatric use.

Novavax generated revenue of $1.15B in FY2021, $1.60B in FY2022, and $556.4M in FY2023. Revenue recovered to $682.2M in FY2024 and expanded 64.7% to $1.12B in FY2025, yielding an operating margin of 50.1% and net income of $440.3M. This represented a 5-year revenue CAGR of 18.8% from FY2020 to FY2025. However, performance slowed over the trailing twelve months, showing revenue of $413.8M, an operating margin of -89.6%, and diluted earnings per share of -$1.58. For the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue dropped 76.3% year-over-year, while quarterly earnings declined 38.1%.

As of June 30, 2026, Novavax held $719.3M in cash and short-term investments and $295.6M in total debt, resulting in net cash of $423.7M. Total assets stood at $955.6M against shareholders' equity of -$190.7M, reflecting negative equity, while its current ratio was 2.33. Operating cash flow for FY2025 was -$244.6M and free cash flow was -$250.2M. Capital expenditures totaled $5.6M and share buybacks were $4.8M in FY2025, following a 5-year share count increase of 121.2%.

At a last close of $11.26, Novavax carried a market cap of $1.86B and an enterprise value of $1.32B. The stock trades at a forward P/E of 2.6x, below the 17.3x forward P/E median of its US-listed Healthcare peers. Its price-to-sales multiple of 4.5x sits above the peer median of 4.1x, while its EV-to-EBITDA of 1.7x compares to the peer median of 12.0x. Over the past year, Novavax returned 32.8% versus 16.8% for the S&P 500, though its 5-year return of -93.0% lagged the S&P 500 return of 83.0%.

Wall Street analysts cover Novavax with 5 Strong Buy, 0 Buy, 1 Hold, 2 Sell, and 1 Strong Sell ratings. The mean price target is $14.22, representing an upside of 26.3% above the last close of $11.26. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, consensus estimates project revenue of $389.3M and an EPS of -$0.52. For the subsequent year, 8 analysts estimate revenue of $290.3M and EPS of -$0.08. Novavax beat EPS estimates in each of the last 4 quarters, and its next earnings date is November 5, 2026.

This page is an AI-written research summary of Novavax, Inc. (NVAX). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

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